Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251006 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 606 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will stall out near or just north of far northern Maine this morning. A cold front will push south across the region tonight. High pressure will build to the north of the area Saturday and will move into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:06 am update: Most of the shower activity is moving across New Brunswick, but there are still a few showers around. The most concentrated area of showers is across the eastern Saint John Valley, but isolated showers extend south to near Houlton. Most of the area will be dry into the mid afternoon with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop after 18-19Z in a corridor south of the Saint John Valley and north of Millinocket. Once the activity gets going later today it should push south ahead of a cold front this evening. Made some tweaks mainly to the sky and PoPs based in the latest radar and satellite trends. Previous discussion: A warm front lifting across the region early this morning will allow a very warm and more humid air mass to build into the area today. The 925H temperatures are expected to soar to +22-23C across central and Downeast areas, and with a gusty west wind and some sun temperatures will climb into the upper 80s with a few spots from Bangor to Millinocket to likely hit 90 degrees. Offshore flow will mean that temperatures will also get quite warm along the coast. Where there remains uncertainty is in the far north, where more clouds and some showers and a cooler air mass will keep temperatures mostly in the 70s, but if that boundary gets nudged just a bit further north and there is a bit more sun around midday temps could soar into the l/m 80s even in far northern Maine; but for now that still remains in doubt as temps in the upper 40s with clouds and showers around early this morning. The concern today will be the potential for severe weather ahead of a cold front. The best cape and instability this afternoon and evening will generally be from around Clayton Lake to Mars Hill and points south to the central highlands and into southern Aroostook County. There is strong deep layer shear, but it is all unidirectional. The biggest concern would be hail with a secondary concern for locally strong wind gusts. The tornado threat looks to be quite low. Any thunderstorms should end by late evening with scattered showers pressing south toward the coast. Drier and cooler air will filter into northern areas overnight with clearing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall not a bad start to the Memorial Day Weekend. Saturday will be much less humid with a good deal of sunshine across central and northern portions of the forecast area. Downeast and in the Bangor Region clouds and a morning shower in spots will give way to at least a p/sunny sky with it turning noticeably less humid. Dry and cool Sat night, and in fact some of the normal cold spots in the northwest valleys may get down to near or even a little below freezing. At this time it would appear the best shot at any frost would be in the far northwest where the frost/freeze program does not commence until June 1st. On Sunday, high pressure pulls east of the area with onshore flow to strengthen. This will keep temperatures on the cool side along the coast and even into interior Downeast Maine, but the further north one goes the warmer it will get away from the influence of the cold ocean waters. In fact, highs may reach 70 degrees or better in far northwest Maine while some coastal communities do not get out of the upper 40s and low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled as we head into Memorial Day. Onshore flow continues Memorial Day, and an upper trough works across the area with clouds and showers. Toward the coast, it will likely be quite cool with some showers and drizzle. Highs will likely not get out of the 50s for most areas, and especially along the coast where temperatures may not get much warmer than 50 degrees along the immediate shoreline. Some fog is also likely Monday and Monday night along the coast. A cold front crosses the area Monday night with more showers and the possibility of a thunderstorm if there should be some elevated instability. Confidence on elevated instability several days out is low, so for now will not mention any thunder. Showers will likely come to an end by early Tuesday and will be followed by clearing and drier air. The air mass warms up mid-late week, and by Thursday both the ECMWF and GFS have 925H temps soaring to around +24-25C despite relatively low 500H heights. Potential for widespread highs around or even a little above 90 degrees for inland areas. The wind direction is a bit uncertain along the coast as to whether there might be enough sly component to keep temps cooler. Did go above the model blend temps for Thursday, but potentially it will be even warmer. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR today and tonight outside of any stronger convection where brief IFR conditions are possible from around 19z to 02z generally south of KCAR and north of KBGR. Strong and erratic wind gusts are possible in or near any t-storms this afternoon and evening. A few very local pockets of IFR to MVFR are possible early this morning from KPQI to KFVE. Marginal LLWS at times early today, but as the west wind increased the wind shear is expected to diminish. SHORT TERM: Predominately VFR through Tue. There is the chance of lower ceilings and visibility by later Monday and Mon night at KBHB in lower stratus and fog. Local MVFR possible Mon night in showers.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect on the coastal waters into this evening. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels from late tonight through Sunday. The seas may build to sca levels by Sun night or Monday on the coastal waters. There is the potential for areas of low visibility in fog late Sun night into Monday morning, with a better chance of more widespread fog Mon night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...CB/CB Marine...CB/CB

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