-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
592
FXUS61 KCAR 081117
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
717 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south today with high pressure building
in from the north. High pressure remains over the area through
Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will cross the area through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
515 am update...
Fog has moved in along the coast bringing vsbys down below 1/4
mile at times. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 9am this
morning. Showers along the stationary boundary are light at this
time with area of storms gradually moving in from NH/wrn Maine.
As these storms move east they are diminishing in strength as
expected with most of the instability nosing into swrn Maine
with very little over far swrn sxns of CWA. Further to the north
skies are clearing and with near zero degree dwpt depressions
can clearly see fog developing over srn Quebec and expect this
will overspread nrn Aroostook as skies clear before sunrise. No
other chgs needed this morning.

Prev discussion blo...
Sfc low currently sitting over Downeast tonight with quasi-
stationary front extending over interior Downeast into srn New
Brunswick. Last vestiges of overrunning showers and storms have
shifted out of the CWA with only isolated showers in it/s wake.

Skies are clearing over portions of the North Woods with valley
fog seen on nighttime microphysics over southern Quebec. Expect
as clearing continues overnight that fog will begin to develop
over the far north just before sunrise.

1020mb sfc high will be building south out of Canada this
morning with skies clearing across the north with temps fairly
uniform over CWA, with highs generally topping out in the 70s.

Latest CAMS are showing isolated showers lingering over srn
areas this afternoon with notable storm developing to our west
and just skirting eastern sxns of Penobscot Bay. Have mainly
kept scattered showers and storms out of our area but will pass
onto later shifts to keep an eye on latest guidance.

For tonight clear skies and light winds allow temps to dip into
the 40s over the northwest with 50s over the north and around 60
for srn areas.

Inverted trof looks to set up over western zones tomorrow
afternoon with slight chance for showers and tstms over the very
far west. Highs tomorrow will be around seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night...The upper level trof over the Great Lakes
should slowly start to move E. A mid level shortwave is expected
to push into the region through the night with shower chances
increasing. Extended models are having a hard time resolving the
track of the shortwave QPF. Decided to go with the NBM rainfall
timing where the western border should see rain first.

Thursday...As the upper level trof moves E, the shortwave
should follow. Models show the rain progressing E with the
system, though the Canadian shows very little moisture moving
in. The NAM and NBM seem to be the most aggressive with possible
instability with the system. Though the system does not seem to
have the a lifting mechanism, models indicate a possibility of
afternoon clearing which will give enough lift to produce
isolated pulse thunderstorms. Expect temps in the mid 70s.

Thursday night...The axis of the upper level trof will move over
New England. This should help push the slow moving shortwave out
of the region. Rain chances will increase at the beginning of
the night and push out of the area towards Friday morning. Total
rain amounts should be fairly light across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridging starts to move into the area for the weekend
with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s and partly cloudy skies.
Models lose consistency towards the beginning of next week with
the next low pressure system moving in. The GFS is the most
aggressive with the cold front moving through the area by Sunday
afternoon while the Euro and Canadian push the front through by
Tuesday. As of this update, the NBM seems to have a good handle
keeping the rain at a chance through early next week. The next
model runs should give a clearer picture.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: IFR for Downeast terminals this morning. LIFR vsbys
at BHB for the first hour before improving to IFR. BHB likely to
improve to MVFR this afternoon before diminishing to IFR late
tonight. BGR improves to VFR this afternoon before diminishing
to IFR overnight.

Aroostook terminals slowly improve this morning to VFR from
north to south.

All terminals likely to see VFR conditions on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...VFR. Light ESE winds.

Thu-Thunight...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Light SE winds.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR in rain showers. Light and variable
winds.

Saturday...VFR. Light E wind.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through mid-
week. Visibilities will be reduced by patchy fog this morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA conditions for this
period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Buster/LaFlash
Marine...Buster/LaFlash