Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211335 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 935 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Hudson Bay will dominate area weather through. today. Low pressure will track northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast towards eastern Nova Scotia tonight and Thursday. High pressure will then gradually build from the north behind this low by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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915 AM Update...Decreased lows tonight...mostly north where radiational cooling will occur this evening before clouds thicken. Increased winds tonight and Thursday. Gust potential along the coast is nearly 50 mph. Blowing snow will be a problem late tonight into Thursday. Added sleet along the coast Thursday morning as a warm nose just above H850 will be pressent for a few hours. The threat of some heavier bands in the Down East region due to instability aloft lead to an increase in snowfall up to 6-7 inches in the advisory area. The Bangor area will likely have travel issues Thursday morning, but snowfall totals remain under advisory criteria. Also increased snowfall across the entire area Thursday afternoon with an inch possible as far north as Caribou and Fort Kent. Finally, added a coastal flood section below for tonight`s high tide. Previous discussion... After a mainly clear and chilly start to the day, we will begin to see increasing high clouds in advance of low pressure moving east of the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will be at near seasonal levels for this time of year with mid to upper 30s north and near 40 central and downeast. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken this evening as the low intensifies and tracks toward central Nova Scotia. Expect snow to develop across Downeast areas mainly after midnight. Gusty northeast winds will also result in areas of blowing snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued beginning late tonight for all of Downeast Maine where 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected by daybreak Thursday. Across northern and central areas, expect snow to develop well after midnight, with any accumulation by daybreak Thursday an inch or less. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 20s north and mid to upper 20s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Blended a little more 00z GFS compliment for QPF and derived snfl for Thu, since it has been most consistent with its prior runs with the xcpt of the 20/18z run. This results in the most sig snfl ovr Washington and Hancock counties where we issued a wntr wx adv for both the sn and brisk NNE winds with gusts up to 35 mph which will produce areas of blsn. Further N, snfl will be progressively lighter with only patchy blsn. Farthest Nrn lctns in the St John vly may only receive a dusting or even no sn with the sfc low tracking ovr the open Atlc ocean from off the mid Atlc states to far ern NS prov. Steady snfl will wind down to sct sn shwrs by mid to late aftn across the Rgn, with sct rn/sn shwrs ovr Downeast areas, then end Thu eve as the low quickly moves NE of NS prov with winds slowly subsiding. Fri looks to fair and milder with less wind. Weak upper lvl troffing will bring cldnss and sct flurries/sn shwrs to msly Nrn ptns of the Rgn late Fri ngt into erly Sat eve with little in the way of sn accumulation spcly durg aftn hrs Sat when Sfc-BL temps will rise abv fzg at all lower trrn lctns. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Skies will clr ovrngt Sat as drier semi-arctic air moves SSE into our FA from Nrn QB. This will result in fair...but cooler conditions Sun and chilly ovrngt lows Sun ngt as Can sfc hi pres settles ovr the Rgn. Mon and spcly Tue will be fair and progressively milder as upper hi pres builds ovr the area the sfc hi slowly slides E of the Rgn and allows for return lgt SW wind flow. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected today. Snow will begin to overspread the Downeast terminals after midnight with MVFR/IFR conditions developing at KBGR/KBHB terminals in developing snow after 05z. Across the north, snow will gradually develop well after midnight with MVFR developing toward daybreak Thursday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR to LIFR xpctd in sn Thu ovr Downeast sites with MVFR to IFR in lgtr snfl across Nrn TAF sites, transitioning to MVFR in sct sn shwrs by Thu eve all sites and VFR by Fri morn. All sites will then remain VFR thru Sun, xcpt brief pds of MVFR clgs/vsbys with any sn shwrs across Nrn TAF sites late Fri ngt into erly Sat eve. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect beginning late today and continuing through tonight, as gusty northeast winds are expected, as intensifying low pressure tracks toward Nova Scotia by late tonight. Visibility will decrease to 1 to 3 NM in developing snow tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Gale wrng conditions will be ongoing thru Thu, with winds diminishing below gale force Thu eve and then remaining at SCA into erly Fri morn. Seas will likely take til Fri aftn before subsiding to and below 5 ft ovr outer Mzs. No other definitive hdln pds xpctd attm aftwrds thru the remainder of the fcst pd. We went about 2 to 3 ft abv WW3/NWPS wv guidance for fcst wv hts Thu morn then merged with guidance Thu eve onward. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor splashover is possible at tonight`s 2am high tide.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ016-017-029-030-032. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN Tides/Coastal Flooding...MCW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.