Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201001 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 601 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking to our west will lift north of the area tonight. A cold front following the low will cross the region Sunday morning. High pressure will build in from the west on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature, dew point and wind. No other changes. A cold front will move across the region this morning then move off-shore later this afternoon. Rain is expected this morning ahead of the front then showers as the front moves through. Clearing will take place from northwest to southeast behind the cold front. Strong high pressure is then expected to move in from the west tonight with clear skies and somewhat colder temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sfc low located nr Newfoundland and Labrador wl drape a cdfnt on the international brdr by 12z Mon. Fropa wl occur thru most of CWA Mon morning with deep mixing resulting in gusty winds, mainly acrs the north, in the aftn. With dwpts dipping into the 20s acrs the north and winds gusting btwn 25-30kts in the aftn this wl once again result in increasing fire risk. Ridge axis wl settle ovr CWA Mon night and with clr skies and lgt winds expected temps lkly to drop into the m30s acrs the St. John Vly. Winds pick up out of the southwest Tue mrng ahd of next wk wv dropping thru Quebec. May see an isold shower acrs the far north in the aftn with better chc of showers holding off until late Tue night as frontal bndry appchs fm Canada. High temps on Tue wl be abv normal in the 70s except along the coast due to onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cdfnt wl sweep thru the area on Wed. Med range guidance differs on timing of front, thus hv kept just showers in for the time- being. If CMC is correct on timing, may see thunder in the aftn acrs the south. Ern troffiness conts into the early part of the weekend bfr a more substantial system follows. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR conditions are expected this morning then VFR conditions all areas this afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR Mon into Wed morning. May see restrictions lower to MVFR across northern terminals Wed mrng in low clouds and showers as wave skirts across the north. Cold front will move through on Wed with MVFR showers possible at times. VFR returns Wed night into Thur. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest on Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds. For Waves: Wave heights will continue to build this morning (7 feet/7 seconds) as a southerly fetch across the Gulf of Maine persists. The fetch will be broken up this afternoon as wind direction veers into the west. Southerly swell will slowly subside to around 4 feet by Monday Morning. Will use NWPS to initialize the waves. Total Water Level: Will adjust the Base Tide Anomaly down to 0.40 feet based on the latest observations then gradually lower to 0.30 feet later Tuesday. SHORT TERM: May see marginal SCA conditions Mon afternoon but no headlines anticipated the remainder of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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