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FXUS61 KCAR 171605
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1205 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly cross the area today into tonight then
exit into the Maritimes on Wednesday. A new low will develop to
our south on Thursday then track toward Nova Scotia Thursday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 1205 PM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point.
No other changes.

Low pressure extends from southern Quebec and into the CT River
Valley early this morning.  One low center will remain across
southern Quebec into tonight as a second center tracks across
western Maine today and over northern Maine this evening. By
Wednesday morning low pressure is expected be over the Gaspe Bay
Peninsula with a trough extending across the Saint Lawrence River
Valley. An occluded front will move across the Downeast region
this morning and into the Saint John Valley by this evening. The
cold air that has been difficult to displace due to a strong
but weakening high to the north. The high will finally get
nudged out of the region today. The Downeast Region will remain
cloudy today with rain early this morning to taper to scattered
showers and some patchy drizzle and fog during the morning.
Steadier rain to the north will taper back to scattered showers
this afternoon. There are still a number of spots across the
northern half of the cwa with temperatures at or a little below
freezing with a few reports of icy spots on social media early
this morning. Will extend the winter weather advisory for just
the northern tier of zones until 6 am, and expect that it is
unlikely it will need to be extended any further. Strong wind in
spots along the gusts with a few spots with gusts to 50+ mph.
Will cancel the advisory for interior Downeast/Bangor, but will
keep the advisory going until its expiration time of 5 am along
the coast. The core of the strong jet will be moving east of the
area between 3-6 am this morning. Temperatures will be much
milder this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s in
the Bangor Region, and should moderate back to near 40F in the
Saint John Valley. Tonight will be mainly cloudy as a nearly
vertically stacked low begins to lift north of the area. A few
showers are expected and with cooling aloft with the upper low
and loss of daytime heating a few wet snow showers are possible
later at night with little/no accums. Lows tonight will be in
the low to mid 30s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will be over the area Wednesday while
surface low pressure begins to slide into the Maritimes. This will
bring a cloudy sky with a few scattered showers. The low will move
away Wednesday night and a weak ridge of high pressure will briefly
slide across the region early Thursday. However, moisture in the low
levels is expected to result in a mostly cloudy sky on Thursday. A
new upper level trough of low pressure will quickly slide in during
the day Thursday developing a new area of low pressure south of New
England. This low will quickly track northeast toward Nova Scotia
Thursday evening as it pulls cold air south into its circulation.
This will spread snow across the area Thursday night, except for the
Downeast coast where rain is likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow will continue into Friday morning over central and northern
areas with a light to moderate accumulation of wet snow likely by
Friday morning. Wet snow amounts of 2 to 3 inches look likely over
much of the central and northern areas as a preliminary estimate.
Snow showers may continue over the north into Friday afternoon. The
low will move away into the Maritimes Friday night into Saturday and
partial clearing is possible across the area Saturday afternoon. A
warm ridge of high pressure is then expected to bring sunny, milder,
drier weather through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Predominately IFR today and tonight at the northern
terminals from KHUL to KFVE.  IFR at the Downeast terminals is
expected to improve to MVFR by later this afternoon or evening,
and perhaps to VFR by later tonight. LLWS is expected early this
morning.

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds are expected Wednesday
into Wednesday night, with conditions possibly improving to
MVFR Downeast late Wednesday night. MVFR conditions Thursday
morning will lower to IFR late Thursday afternoon then be IFR in
snow and mixed precipitation Thursday night. IFR conditions
Friday morning may improve to MVFR Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gales early this morning will ease today, but a
small craft advisory will be needed through tonight, mainly for
seas. It is possible that conditions may lower to below sca
levels on the intra-coastal waters after midnight tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be below SCA Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Winds may increase to SCA on Thursday as low
pressure lifts northeast toward the Gulf of Maine. A SCA is
possible Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts
northeast across Nova Scotia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers will be on the rise this week due to the combination of
rain and snowmelt in the north, and rain in the south. Open
water flooding appears unlikely. The main concern will be on the
northern rivers, i.e. the Saint John, Aroostook, and Allagash
Rivers that still have significant ice. The rising waters levels
will cause the ice to break up later this week and could lead
to the potential for ice jams, and possible localized ice jam
flooding.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...
Long Term...
Aviation...Mignone/
Marine...Mignone/
Hydrology...