-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
798
FXUS61 KCAR 050418
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1218 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly exit to the east through Sunday. A
cold front approaches Sunday night, then crosses the area
Monday and Monday evening. Weak high pressure builds in late
Monday night through Tuesday night. A frontal boundary stalls
out to the south with waves of low pressure riding along it
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12:18AM Update...No major changes with the ongoing forecast.
Made some minor tweaks with sky conditions based on the latest
trends in the satellite data using the Nighttime Microphysics
scheme. Got a mix of stratocu over land with high clouds then
over the waters there is some fog which is confirmed with buoy
observations... As the ridge moves east tonight expecting a weak
return flow that will probably allow for some patchy fog across
the Downeast coast inland potentially to the southern stretches
of the Central Highlands. Minor tweaks to the trends in T/Td
based on the current obs.

Previous Discussion...
By Sunday, the upper level ridge will start to shift E as the
stronger trof starts to push across the Great Lakes. Model
guidance shows a, area of shortwave energy moving along the
upper level trof, approaching the region by Sunday afternoon.
Clouds and S winds will increase ahead of the system with temps
starting to decrease making for a cooling, breezy afternoon. By
the evening, QPF models show rain will progress from W to E with
a chance of rain moving into the eastern border by sunset.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Sunday night. This
coupled with moderate, but deep, isentropic lift, should produce
a round of light to moderate rain across the region. This
should transit the area from NW to SE with the passage of the
upper level shortwave. The high resolution guidance seems to
have a good handle on this, so followed this for timing/pops.
Lows Sunday night should be a few degrees above normal, ranging
mainly from around 40 to the mid 40s.

A northern stream trough builds to the north Monday through
Tuesday. There could be some isolated to scattered showers
Monday with the initial shortwave as the trough moves across,
with the best chance across the North. Dry air builds in at the
low to mid levels Monday night and Tuesday, so it should be
dry then. Highs on Monday should be around 5-10 degrees above
normal, ranging from the mid-upper 50s near the immediate to
coast to the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. It would not be
surprising if a few places in the southern Central Highlands
and the Bangor region reached the 70 degree mark. Lows Monday
night should be around 5 degrees above normal and highs on
Tuesday near normal across the North and 5-10 d degrees above
normal elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region remains at the base of an upper low stretching from
the Canadian Maritimes back into the Midwest from Tuesday
night-Saturday. The models do not agree on how to handle
shortwaves coming across the base of this trough and the
handling of any ridging that builds under the ridge in this time
frame.

For now it appears it should be dry Tuesday night. After that,
there is some indication for the potential for rain or rain
showers across at least portions of the CWA from Wednesday
through Saturday. Some solutions would have things being more
dry than wet, while others the opposite. As a result have
limited pops to slight chance to chance during this time frame
to reflect the uncertainty.

Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal Tuesday
night, then near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday - depending
on exactly where any precipitation sets up and how extensive it
might be. The temperature forecast in this time range is a low
confidence forecast given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR then expected late tonight into Sunday
morning. Variable conditions with any patchy fog Downeast late
tonight. Generally VFR conditions expected later Sunday morning
into the afternoon. A slight chance/chance of showers Sunday
afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight. Southeast/south
winds around 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to around 20 knots Sunday.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday Night...IFR or lower possible. LLWS possible.

Monday...becoming VFR.

Monday Night-Tuesday night...VFR. Low chance of winds G15-20KT,
with higher confidence in NW wind direction in this time frame.

Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible - very low
confidence. E-NE winds G15-20KT possible - very low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are forecast on all waters Sunday
night-Thursday. There could be some wind gusts to around 20 kt
on the waters Sunday night and Monday, and again on Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Sinko
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...LaFlash/Sinko/Maloit
Marine...LaFlash/Sinko/Maloit