Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191308 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 908 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... One area of low pressure will continue moving away through the Maritimes today as another low develops south of New England. The new low will track south of Nova Scotia tonight and on toward Newfoundland on Friday. High pressure will begin to build in from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 9:05 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point based on latest observations. Previous discussion: An upper trough across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence early this morning will split into two low centers. One center pushes off the Newfoundland coast as the second digs into the Saint Lawrence River valley this afternoon. This low will move across Maine tonight and into western New Brunswick by 12Z Fri. A sfc trough north of the area will dissipate today. An area of low pressure along the Delmarva coast early this morning will pass east of Cape Cod this afternoon, and east of Halifax by around midnight tonight. Overall the system passing to our south and east looks fairly weak with the bulk of the more significant QPF to pass south and east of our CWA. Rain will likely develop along the Downeast coast this afternoon with a couple of showers to the north, which will be more in association with the upper low. As the sfc low pulls east tonight moisture will rotate around the low and back into parts of northern and eastern Maine as the upper low traverses the region. There will be enough lift and moisture for some areas of rain and snow, but it looks rather disorganized. The best chance will likely be from southeast Aroostook County down across Washington County. As far as precipitation type goes, would expect mainly rain in the early evening that transitions to wet snow late evening and overnight. the most likely area to pick up an inch or two of wet snow would be from around Houlton south into central Washington County, with an inch or less elsewhere. Most of the snow that does fall will melt on most paved surfaces, although a little slushy coating is possible on normally colder surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. Overall, this looks to be a very minor event.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure tracking through the southern Maritimes Friday morning will produce some light, wet snow across the area Friday morning. Snow will taper off to spotty snow and rain showers north and rain showers Downeast Friday afternoon. Little or no additional snow accumulation is expected on Friday. Upper level low pressure to our northeast will keep skies mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday, although some breaks of sunshine are possible late Saturday afternoon, especially Downeast, as drier air begins to circulate in from the west. The sky should become partly cloudy Saturday night as the upper low continue to move away and surface high pressure from the Great Lakes begins to approach. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build in on Sunday bringing a mostly sunny and milder day. The upper level ridge will build over the area Monday into Tuesday as surface high pressure slowly slides to the south. A return flow of southerly air behind the high will bring warmer air into the region early next week under a sunny sky. Wednesday may begin warm and dry. A new trough of low pressure will then approach bringing a chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday. This looks like a warm system with significant rain possible along with fog. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR late this afternoon or early this evening at the Downeast terminals in -ra, with IFR to MVFR expected tonight. At the northern terminals, predominately MVFR today with conditions to lower to IFR in -ra/-sn tonight. Brief periods of LIFR early this morning at KFVE in fog. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are likely Friday morning, possibly improving to MVFR in some sites, mainly downeast, Friday afternoon. MVFR conditions are likely Friday night into Saturday morning. Ceilings should then lift during the day Saturday becoming VFR Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Saturday night through early next week as high pressure builds in. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The small craft advisory for hazardous seas was cancelled with the early morning update. Seas are running around 5 ft, but it is mostly residual longer period swell. The swell is expected to continue to slowly subside today, and the wind and seas should remain below SCA levels into tonight. SHORT TERM: A few gusts may be close to 25 kt over the offshore waters early Friday morning. Some swell may approach 5 ft over the offshore waters during the midday Friday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Friday, through the weekend, and into early next week as high pressure builds over. && .CLIMATE... The snow depth this morning at Caribou of 11" ranks as the 3rd highest on record for April 19th. The highest observed snow depth at 12Z on 4/19 is 17" in 1939. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone S is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.