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041
FXUS61 KCAR 290104
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
904 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight. Weak high
pressure will build toward the region later Sunday and remain
through Monday. A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Another cold front will cross the region
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
903PM Update...Radar scans show rain showers moving out of the
region faster than previously forecast. Adjusted to show this.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks good.

Previous Discussion...
Weak low pressure moving east tonight will result in showers
and isolated thunderstorms this evening. The low will weaken as
it pushes east later tonight wih showers and isolated
thunderstorms diminishing after midnight. Patchy fog is also
expected. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 50s
across the region. West to northwest flow aloft is expected
during Sunday. Mainly cloudy skies can be expected Sunday with
just some widely scattered showers expected as a weak
disturbance crosses the region. Afternoon highs will be warmer
on Sunday. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday night into Monday, ridging aloft will move overhead,
along with warmer temperatures in the mid-levels. Deterministic
model runs indicate temps near 20 - 22C at 850hPa, so think
temps will be slightly higher than current deterministic run
of the NBM is showing. Not sure dewpoints will rise enough to
worry about heat headlines; right now it just looks like a muggy
day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. On Tuesday another cold
front will approach from the west, bringing clouds early on
which will help keep high temps slightly lower. Some potential
for thunderstorms ahead of the front, however right now CAPEs
are very low, even in the CAMs. Plenty of shear and high
PWATs around 1.8 to 1.9", so cannot rule out heavy precip and
maybe some gusty winds withe precip loaded thunderstorms but
overall the severe potential does not look high at the moment.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The precip will pass through on Tuesday night, clearing for
Weds, but the cooler air will not arrive until Thursday. This
generates an opportunity for some air-mass thunderstorms across
the north on Wednesday night. On Thursday, cooler air will
begin to move in, and by Friday high temps will be much more
seasonable. Timing of the upper level trough crossing the area
is variable at the moment, so weather for Friday and Saturday
still remains uncertain with somewhat low confidence in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
IFR conditions for all terminals tonight due to low cigs.
Possible MVFR/IFR vsby due to scattered rain showers, especially
for northern terminals tonight. For Sunday, north terminals
MVFR/IFR for the day and south terminals improving to MVFR in
the morning and VFR by the afternoon. SSE winds 5-10 kts,
becoming WNW around 5 kts Sunday afternoon.


SHORT TERM:

Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. IFR fog possible over
Downeast terminals Monday morning. Light W winds becoming S by
Monday evening, at 5-10kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Limited
potential for TS on station. Potential for some fog development
in valleys and coastal areas. Winds from the S at 5kts,
becoming SW at 5-10kts, with gusts up to 20kts, on Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday..VFR/MVFR. Winds from the SW at
5-10kts, gusting up to 20kts, becoming W Wednesday morning.

Wednesday  Wednesday night...VFR. Winds from the W at 5-10
kts, gusts 20-25kt possible, becoming SW overnight.

Thursday...VFR south, MFVR in -SHRA north. Limited potential for
afternoon TS across the north. W wind 10 to 15kts becoming
light.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind/seas below SCA criteria through Sunday, although
a few gusts to 25 kt are possible. Visibility will be reduced
to 1 to 3 NM in showers, isolated thunderstorms, and patchy fog
tonight, then scattered morning showers and patchy fog Sunday
morning.

SHORT TERM: Potential for SCA criteria returns Tues/Tues night
with gusts to 25kts, mainly offshore. Winds will decrease below
25kts by Weds a.m. Seas 2 to 4 feet, becoming 3 to 5 feet on
Tues.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/LaFlash
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash/LF
Marine...TWD/LaFlash/LF