Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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289 FXUS61 KCAR 191946 CCA AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 346 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move across the Gulf of Maine this evening then northeast into the Maritimes Friday. High pressure will build in from the west over the weekend with below average temperatures expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure at the surface and aloft will move to the northeast away from New England this evening. Another low pressure system developing to the south of New England will move across the outer portion of the Gulf of Maine late tonight. Both systems are expected to produce light precipitation across the region into Friday. Precipitation will be in the form of rain initially in all areas then change to snow across the north later tonight. Will use the precipitation type from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs. For Snow amounts have used the Snow Ratio Tools. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall expecting a nice weekend, although it will be cool and blustery once again with below average temperatures. General northwest flow will be advecting cool and dry Canadian air into Maine as we are on the backside of a 500mb trough. Winds aloft are moderately strong at 925-850mb, with steep low level laps rates developing during the afternoon hours, so expect some wind gusts which that will make the low to mid-40s not so pleasant. Winds will remain below advisory level, so blustery will be the best way to describe Saturday. More of the same expected on Sunday, but temperatures will moderate a little and skies will be mostly sunny. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pattern change expected by Monday with 500mb ridging finally expected over the Eastern Seaboard. There will be an associated surface high across Southern New England with warm westerly flow becoming established by Monday afternoon. Highs will surge into the 50s once again under mostly clear skies. More of the same on Tuesday and it will be even warmer with some 60s possible across the region. Most of the long term guidance is hinting at a southern stream surface low beginning to move up the coast by Wednesday with chances of rain increasing by Wednesday night into Thursday. Flow will turn southerly with onshore flow becoming established, so it will most likely be cool and foggy on the coast and warmer further inland with rain showers by the end of this forecast period. Overall this period will have above average temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions Tonight and Friday with light rain/snow showers across the region. SHORT TERM: Aviation conditions will be improving for the weekend as rain/snow showers pull out of the area. Expecting VFR conditions at all TAF terminals this weekend into the beginning of next week. Winds will be gusty out of the NW during the afternoon hours this weekend though. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. Waves: Primary wave system continues to be long period southerly swell generated off the East Coast earlier in the week. This wave system will continue to subside Tonight. An off-shore wind wave is expected to build later tonight as winds increase, however combined seas and wind gusts are expected to remain below SCA through tonight. Will use NWPS to initialize the wave grids. Total Water Level: Surge Models still showing low bias last high tide cycle so will start with 0.70 foot adjustment higher and slowly decrease over next several days. SHORT TERM: Winds will be gusty from the northwest with offshore flow expected through the weekend. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria though with max gusts around 20 kts. Waves will generally be 2 to 4 feet across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers will very slowly rise over the next 24 hours before leveling off as drier and cooler air works into Maine for the weekend with nighttime low temperatures dropping below freezing once again. This will limit snowmelt with controlled melt expected once again. Some ice will continue to move especially on the Aroostook river, but not expecting a full flush at this point based on current river flows. Things will change for next week though with the big warm up coming followed by rain. Expect full out ice to occur sometime next week. With that said, we will have to continue to monitor the rivers this weekend as ice is weak and moving in some places. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...Mignone/Dumont Marine...Mignone/Dumont Hydrology...Dumont

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