Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181302 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 902 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over our region will slowly move northeast into the Maritimes today and tonight. A new area of low pressure will develop to our south on Thursday and track across Nova Scotia Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 9:00 AM: Have adjusted pops for an area of showers and snow showers over Penobscot and Piscataquis Counties moving to the east and south bases on radar and observations from web cams. Have also adjusted temperature, wind, and dew points based on latest observations. Previous discussion: An upper low across northwest Maine early this morning will pull away to the northeast to near Anticosti Island in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence by this evening, and will then remain quasi- stationary tonight. A surface low over the Gaspe Bay Peninsula will become nearly vertically stacked with the upper low this afternoon. The model soundings remain very moist today across northern Maine where there will be a lot of stratus and even some patchy fog early this morning. A bit drier in the low levels Downeast where the clouds will not be as low and there will be a few breaks. Scattered showers are expected today across the north and mountains, with snow showers from around Baxter State Park north to mix or change to rain showers in the afternoon. Little/no snow accumulation is expected. Downeast, the morning looks dry, but a few instability showers may develop in the afternoon. Highs today will range from near 40F in the saint John Valley and closer to 50F in the Greater Bangor Region. Showers will dissipate in most areas this evening, but toward the Saint John Valley an isolated shower of rain or snow can`t be ruled out tonight. Toward 12Z Thu there will be the chance of a little rain or snow across the southern most zones ahead of low pressure that will be moving off the NJ coast. Lows will range from the upper 20s to low 30s far north to the mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast with light wind.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low which brought our rain and drizzle early in the week will be moving northeast and away through the Maritimes on Thursday. A new trough quickly sliding in from the mid-west will phase with a trough wrapping down from the north to create a new low near southern New England on Thursday. This low will spread some rain into the area late Thursday into Thursday night as it tracks toward Nova Scotia. Rain will change to snow from north to south Thursday evening as the low pulls colder air south into it`s circulation. The snow will taper off to snow showers, and possibly some rain showers downeast, on Friday as it moves away. Friday night will then remain mostly cloudy with some rain or snow showers. Accumulations of snow from Thursday nights storm look generally light with an inch or two likely in most central and northern areas, and a few isolated amounts of 3 or 4 inches possible in some east central locations. Any snow on roads will melt by mid to late morning Friday as radiant solar energy from the high sun angle penetrates the clouds. Friday will remain mostly cloudy. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will move away to the northeast Friday night into Saturday with skies partly to mostly cloudy most of the day Saturday, and becoming partly sunny by the end of the day. A strong ridge of high pressure is then expected to build into the area Sunday through early next week. This will bring dry weather with a warming trend as the upper level ridge builds and surface high pressure slides east allowing warm advection to follow. Temperatures on Monday should rise into the 50s and by Tuesday temperatures may approach 60 across much of the area. A trough of low pressure is then expected to move in on Wednesday with some rain showers. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR to MVFR at the northern terminals will improve to mainly MVFR later this morning, with mostly MVFR ceilings expected through tonight. Predominately VFR Downeast the through tonight, but a period or two of MVFR is possible this afternoon into early this evening, especially in any -shra. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions Thursday, with VFR possible across the north, will lower to IFR from south to north Thursday evening. IFR conditions are then expected in low clouds and snow Thursday night into early Friday. Conditions may improve to MVFR Downeast Friday afternoon but remain IFR over the north. MVFR conditions Friday night should improve to VFR on Saturday. VFR conditions are then expected Sunday through early next week in high pressure. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The small craft advisory was extended through 00z this evening. There is still residual swell from the last storm system and the wind will pick up again today with gusts to 25 to 30 knots. The wind will diminish tonight and the seas will gradually subside. It is possible that the seas may remain above 5 feet on the coastal waters through late evening. SHORT TERM: Winds should be below SCA on Thursday. Winds may then reach SCA late Thursday night into Friday morning in north winds wrapping around low pressure tracking toward Nova Scotia. Winds should then drop below SCA Friday night and remain below SCA into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No issues expected across the southern portion of the HSA. On the northern rivers such as the Saint John, Aroostook, and Allagash snowmelt over the next several days will cause the ice to break up and could lead to potential ice jams, and possible localized flooding. Temperatures will moderate this weekend and into early next week, with highs likely to approach 60 degrees across the northern HSA by Tuesday; so if we don`t see any ice movement this week, we certainly will by next. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.