Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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546 FXUS61 KCAR 211949 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 349 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region this evening and then move east late tonight. Low pressure will approach Tuesday and then cross the region Tuesday night through Wednesday, followed by Canadian high pressure for Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect winds to diminish rather quickly early this evening as diurnal mixing ceases and high pressure begins to cross the area. This will set the stage for some rather chilly overnight lows across the normally colder valley locations of the north and west, where we will see readings falling into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Based on last night lows, will go ahead and issue a frost advisory for eastern Aroostook and northern Penobscot counties, where the frost/freeze program begins today and areas of frost are expected. Will also issue a frost advisory for central Piscataquis and northern Washington counties for areas of frost. Since the frost/freeze program has still not begun for the far northwest, will not be issuing any headlines for that area, although widespread frost is expected. Elsewhere, across the rest of central and interior downeast, only some patchy frost is possible, thus no headlines there. Tuesday will see increasing clouds and the chance for some late day showers in advance of low pressure tracking toward the region from the west. High temperatures on Tuesday will be warmest across the north and coolest across downeast thanks to a southerly onshore flow. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ...Fast WNW Flow Aloft Regime Will Continue... Whats left of any shwrs from late Tue aftn will weaken and become less in cvrg going into the ovrngt hrs Tue ngt with much milder ovrngt lows. Another, fairly strong s/wv alf from Hudson Bay Can will usher in another cold front into our rgn beginning mid to late morn across the xtrm N reaching the Downeast coast by late Wed aftn. Shwrs will organize alg and just ahead of this front spcly durg the midday into aftn hrs across Cntrl and Downeast areas which will have more opportunity for sfc htg ahead of the front. Fcst soundings do show lmtd CAPE of less than 500J/kg for these areas, so we keep the mention of chc tstms from the prev main fcst issuance last ngt, but have held off on any enhanced elements given the uncertainty of how much sunshine and potential instability will be available for tstms. Behind the cold front late Wed aftn/eve, skies will clr with sig cooler air with once again the potential of frost/freeze for msly Nrn vly areas by erly Thu morn. Thu will begin msly sunny with increasing cldnss in the aftn as the sfc hi crosses the area. There will be a chc of shwrs late in the day Thu into Thu ngt as a strong warm front apchs and crosses into the rgn from the W with aftn hi temps recovering to near seasonal lvls. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fri looks to be warmer, with uncertainty regarding how much ewrd progress the warmer air will get into the FA. For now, we split the difference between the warmer 12z dtmnstc GFS and cooler ECMWF. Another cold front from Cntrl Can will bring another chc of shwrs late Fri into Fri ngt across the N with shwrs traversing to Cntrl and Downeast areas Sat morn into erly aftn. Cannot rule out thunder, but to uncertain to add to the fcst attm. Sat`s aftn hi temps will be cooler spcly across the N. Aftwrds, additional s/wvs from the S cntrl Can and the great lks may bring some cldnss and perhaps a chc of shwrs to the rgn again late Sat ngt into Mon, but fcst confidence has been greatly diminished ovr this ptn of the fcst, with the latest 12z GFS reversing ystdy`s solution and now showing fair conditions thru this pd while the corresponding ECMWF shows clds and possible shwrs. We lowered max model blend PoPs to low chc attm with fcst aftn hi temps both Sun and Mon indicated to be near avg until we get a more definitive model trend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Gusty west winds will diminish early this evening with VFR conditions expected. Winds will turn southerly on Tuesday at generally 5 to 10 kt. Some late day showers may affect the terminals Tuesday but VFR conditions should prevail much of the day. SHORT TO LONG TERM: All TAF sites will be mainly VFR xcpt briefly MVFR clgs/vsbys with any heavier shwrs/isold tstms Wed aftn and erly eve. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below advisory levels tonight through Tuesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No immediate hdlns anticipated attm, with winds and seas apchg SCA criteria Fri and Fri eve. Went with about 80 to 90 percent of WW3 guidance. Fcst primary wv pds will be in the 8 to 11 sec range, transitioning to 5 to 7 sec by Fri as winds and wvs become a shorter WSW fetch. && .FIRE WEATHER... The gusty west winds will quickly diminish early this evening. Increasing relative humidities and lighter southerly winds are expected on Tuesday. There will also be the chance for showers later Tuesday afternoon helping to mitigate any fire weather concerns. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. Frost advisory from 1 AM EDT until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ002-005-006-010-032 MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...Farrar/VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN Fire Weather...TD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.