Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241036 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 636 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will move south of New England this afternoon. A warm front will lift north across the area tonight and stall out around the Saint John Valley Friday. A cold front will cross the region Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 am Update... Temperatures updated for current conditions and trends, and sky grids tweaked a bit. But cloud cover is still expected to dissipate over the next few hours. No major changes this update. Original Discussion... Cloud cover has been a challenge tonight, with a vort max passing over the area bringing a bit more cloud cover than originally expected. However, it did hold off some in the areas with the frost advisory, so temps were able to drop to/below 36F in those areas for quite a while tonight. As high pressure slides across the area during the morning, skies should quickly clear, though highs will likely only be near or a bit lower than normal. Clouds will increase again in the afternoon as a warm approaches from Quebec. This front will move across the state tonight, bringing a chance of showers mainly to northern Aroostook County. With the breezy conditions, cloud cover, and passage of the warm front tonight, it will remain a good deal milder tonight compared to Wed night, especially up north where lows could be a good 15F or more higher tonight. Relative humidity values below 35 percent and increasing W`ly winds could create some minor fire weather concerns over central and northern areas this afternoon, but given that we are fairly well along on our green-up and wind gusts should remain below 20mph for the most part, no heads-up SPS or other fire weather products are planned at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A warm front will lift into far northern Maine and stall out somewhere near the Saint John Valley Friday. To the south of the front, the air mass will be very warm with 925H temperatures expected to peak around +22-23C Downeast. The combination of the warm air mass, a west downsloping wind, and some sunshine should yield highs in the upper 80s; and perhaps a couple of spots may hit 90 degrees. There is high confidence that the warm temps in the 80s soar north into the Katahdin Region. Where there is still a high degree of uncertainty is in the far north where the air mass is not as warm, and with the frontal boundary around there will likely be a lot of clouds and some showers. This could limit highs to the 60s in parts of the Saint John Valley. Of course, if the front ends up just 50 miles further north temps would be much warmer. Made some tweaks to raise highs a bit more interior Downeast to Millinocket and lowered a bit in the far north and showed a bit more of a gradient. The other concern for Friday will be the potential for afternoon convection in the warm air mass. There is decent instability and speed shear, and a few t-storms in the afternoon and evening could become quite strong. Will add gusty wind and small hail for now and later shifts may need to enhance further. The SPC now has the area from Greenville to Topsfield north in a marginal risk with hail and wind the main concerns. Low pressure pulls to the east of the area Friday night pushing a cold front south across the region with showers and scattered evening t-storms. Much cooler and drier in the wake of the front Saturday with sunshine in the north and clouds and an early shower toward the coast giving way to at least a p/sunny sky by afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s north to the low 70s in the Greater Bangor Region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Decent weather expected across the north as high pressure in northern Quebec slides off into the maritimes Sun night. A frontal boundary will remain stalled to the south of the area with more clouds toward the coast and a few showers are possible toward Monday as the flow becomes more onshore and moisture from the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic lifts into the area. Temperatures Sun and Mon will be much cooler along the coast, with stronger onshore flow by Monday it will likely cause the cooler temperatures across the Downeast region. The mildest temps both days are expected to be across the far north. A cold front is expected to cross the region Tuesday with showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, although held off on the mention of any thunder for now due to it being many days out with the usual timing differences and uncertainty on the stability. Drier and warmer weather to follow for the middle of the week with the potential for some very warm/hot weather by Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Any lingering fog at KPQI should dissipate this morning, with no other lower flight category issues being reported at TAF sites. Flight conditions should remain VFR through tonight, with shower activity for KPQI through KFVE overnight expected to cause few issues. SHORT TERM: VFR most of the time Fri through Mon. Local MVFR Fri in the far north at KFVE in clouds and some showers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri afternoon and evening will produce gusty and erratic wind at times. Wind gusts outside of thunderstorms of 25 knots are possible Friday afternoon from KHUL south. Conditions may lower to IFR late Sun night into Mon morning near the coast in potential low clouds and fog. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NE-E`ly winds will diminish this morning as high pressure slides over the waters, then shift onshore and freshen this afternoon and overnight. Wind gusts overnight may approach 25kts at times, and seas are forecast to build to 6ft or more for the offshore waters after midnight. Thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting at 2am Fri, and persisting into the short-term period. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory has been issued through Friday evening. There is the potential for low visibility by later Sun night into Monday in areas of fog. && .CLIMATE... There have been 13 nights with a low < = 32F at Houlton, Maine so far this May. This is the most during the month of May since 1977. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ002-005-006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Kredensor Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Kredensor/CB Marine...Kredensor/CB Climate...

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