Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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071 FXUS61 KCAR 211018 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 618 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off the Newfoundland coast will pull away into the north Atlantic today. High pressure to the west of the area will build into New England Sunday. The high will crest over the area Monday then exit to the east Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:18 am update: Overall the cloud cover has diminished quite a bit over the past few hours. Made some adjustments to the sky grids this morning, but fairly extensive cu fields should form later this morning and during the afternoon in the northwest flow across the region. Otherwise, changes were minor and based mostly on the latest observations and expected conditions. Previous discussion: Low pressure along the Newfoundland/Labrador coast will continue to pull away into the open north Atlantic today and tonight. The region will remain in a cool northwest flow around the low today. Steep low level lapse rates and a moderate pressure gradient will cause the wind to pick up out of the northwest. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph are expected late this morning and afternoon, but perhaps to 30 to 35 mph across the higher terrain. There will be a decent cumulus deck around 4-6k ft agl with isolated showers to develop. The model soundings even have a tiny bit of mid level cape this afternoon. The showers would most likely take the form of rain. Temperatures this afternoon will be cool with highs mostly in the 40s. The wind will diminish this evening and the sky will gradually clear from the west as high pressure builds toward the region. A rain or snow showers is possible until around midnight, especially across the eastern half of the cwa. Lows tonight will mostly be in the 20s, with low to mid 30s along the immediate shoreline.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build toward the region Sunday, then cross the region Sunday night through Monday night. Generally expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across northern areas Sunday through Monday night, with mostly clear skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal, levels Sunday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will exit to the east Tuesday, with partly sunny skies north and mostly sunny Downeast. Clouds will increase Tuesday night. Low pressure will then lift toward southern New England Wednesday, with high pressure ridged to the north. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of rain is expected Wednesday. The low will track northeast Thursday, though whether the track is more offshore toward Nova Scotia or across the Gulf of Maine is still uncertain. A track across the Gulf of Maine would bring a better chance of rain Thursday, particularly Downeast. A more offshore track would limit rain potential. Uncertainty persists Friday regarding another possible low approaching from the west which could keep a chance of rain showers across the forecast area. Above normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today and tonight, but brief high end MVFR ceilings are possible today and into this evening, especially at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE. A northwest wind will increase today with gusts of 20-25 knots at the terminals from around 15z to 23z. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday through Tuesday. MVFR conditions are possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight with mostly long period swell of less than 5 ft. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Aside from the risk of an isolated ice jam forming on one of the northern rivers no flooding is expected this weekend into early next week. The ice should finally get flushed out next week with a significant warmup that will lead to a lot of snowmelt. By mid-late next week, the rivers will be running high due to snowmelt, but whether there is any flooding will likely depend on how much rain falls late in the week. The situation will need to be closely monitored through the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...CB/Norcross Marine...CB/Norcross Hydrology...CB

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