Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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423 FXUS61 KCAR 162215 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 615 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes tonight then slowly cross the area Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 6:15 pm update: The main forecast update at this time was to extend all of the winter weather advisories until 10 pm. Although temperatures are above freezing at some locations, i.e. Bangor International Airport is 35F as of 6 pm, there are locations just west of Bangor in southern Penobscot County where temperatures are 30 to 32 degrees, and to the north of Bangor there are many spots still in the upper 20s in the valleys. Temperatures may also drop another degree or two this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Precipitation looks to fill back in across the region tonight, so the concern is for icy spots on the roads and colder surfaces with sleet and freezing rain likely to be the main precipitation types. Previous discussion: A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect across northern portions of the forecast area until 8 pm. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM across central portions of the forecast area and interior Downeast areas. An occluded front will cross the region tonight through Tuesday. A mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain will change to mostly rain across northern and central areas tonight, with mostly rain Downeast. Rain will persist across the region in advance of the occlusion early Tuesday then begin to diminish during the afternoon. A strong low level jet will cross the region tonight with the strongest winds across Downeast areas, particularly the coast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect Downeast tonight, with gusts up to 50 mph expected along the coast with gusts of 40 to 45 mph across interior Downeast areas. Temperatures will slowly warm tonight. High temperatures Tuesday will range from around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the upper 40s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure is expected to move across northern Maine Wednesday. Mostly rain is expected from this system however some snow and mixed precipitation is possible in the far north and higher elevations. This system will move to the northeast Wednesday night however another low will approach the region from the southwest late Wednesday night and track to the south of the region Thursday. Mostly rain is also expected with this system although there may be some snow in the highest elevations. Will use the precipitation from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Gfs and Nam. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Rain is expected to change to snow in the north before ending as snow showers Thursday night. Low pressure is expected to move to the east of New England during the day Friday. Drier conditions are expected Saturday into Monday as strong high pressure builds in from the west. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across northern areas tonight, with IFR/LIFR conditions Downeast. A mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain will change to rain across northern and central areas overnight, with mostly rain Downeast. Rain is expected across the region Tuesday. IFR/LIFR conditions will persist across the region early Tuesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions during the afternoon. LLWS is expected across the entire region tonight. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday except MVFR conditions possible at KBGR and KBHB later Thursday. IFR/MVFR conditions expected Thursday night and Friday. VFR conditions expected Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect for waters tonight. Small craft advisory conditions will occur Tuesday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and patchy fog tonight through Tuesday morning. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. Waves: Long period swell generated by the Monday/Monday night Storm will continue to subside Wednesday into Thursday however due to the long fetch involved the wave heights are not expected to subside to below 5 feet until mid day Thursday. A secondary wind wave (less than 2 feet) is expected into the weekend. Will use NWPS to initialize the wave grids. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers will be on the rise this week due to the combination of rain and snowmelt in the north, and rain in the south. Open water flooding appears unlikely given the amount of precipitation that is expected. The main concern will be on the northern rivers, i.e. the Saint John, Aroostook, and Allagash Rivers that still have significant ice. The rising waters levels will cause the ice to break up later this week and could lead to the potential for ice jams, and possible localized ice jam flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding, splash over, and beach erosion is possible around the the time of high tide (around midnight) tonight. The astronomical tide is close to the highest levels of the month due to the moon phase, a storm surge of approximately 1.5 feet is expected, and the largest waves are around the time of high tide. Small rocks or debris are likely to wash up on exposed coastal roads such as the Seawall Road and Schoodic Point Road. Minor flooding is possible in low areas such as the Deer Isle Causeway and in Machias. Storm surge and waves are expected to subside Tuesday so this is the only tide cycle of concern. Total water level: Wind speed off-shore has been slow to increase so surge models have shown slight high bias and have adjusted levels into early evening, however expect wind speed to increase this evening so will increase water level slightly above surge models. Will initialize with the ESTOFS surge forecast as it has the best track record in southerly events. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ015>017-029-030. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone Hydrology...CB Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

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