Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180402 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1202 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will build down from Canada overnight and Sunday then crest south of the region Sunday night into Monday. Low pressure will track well south of the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12:02 am update: It feels more like the middle of January across the cwa early morning with temperatures mostly in the single digits and lower teens. A gusty wind is producing wind chills in the zero to 10 below range. Mainly clear the remainder of the night with a local streamer or two off the Saint Lawrence River that could produce a few patches of clouds in the far north and west. Also, some high clouds may try to back into northeast portions of the cwa around low pressure over Labrador. All in all, the forecast is in fine shape with only minor tweaks to the forecast elements based on the midnight observations and satellite pictures. Previous Discussion... Low pressure well to our northeast combined with high pressure building down from Canada will bring a very cold night tonight. Sunday will be another very cold day as the high continues to build in from the northwest. A weak upper level shortwave sliding south across the region around midday combined with heating from the mid March sunshine may produce some low level convection. This could bring some light snow showers across central and northern areas again. Otherwise, the day will be mainly dry and cold. The cold weather will persist into Monday as high pressure builds to our south although highs Monday will not be as low as the weekend highs. Another weak upper level shortwave sliding down from eastern Canada will again bring a chance for scattered flurries over the north during the midday and afternoon Monday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Continued cold. An upper trof will continue to influence the region this term and beyond. This trof will continue to provide some cold temps along w/some clouds for Tuesday, mainly across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. The St. Lawrence remains open and w/the flow coming off the St. Lawrence, streamers or light snow could be a nuisance especially over the St. John Valley. Attm, decided to keep slight chance for snow(20%) across the Crown. The upside to this is that the flow does not look to be strong, so activity will be limited. Afternoon temps for Tuesday were bumped up a few degrees w/the help of the March sun. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Closed upper low will drift across the state right into Thursday w/some more snow showers/light snow possible. Low pres moving is forecast to move off the mid Atlc coast and looks like it will remain well to the s of the region. This is supported by the 12Z ECMWF/GFS and Canadian Global. Decided on a blend apch and brought 20-30% chance for snow mainly along Downeast given that a track back to the w is possible. Some of the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF show a track further w still possible. Still time to assess this situation. It looks like temps could moderate some both Thursday into Friday w/daytime temps running well into the 30s. This would allow for snowmelt. At any rate, temps during this term are expected to continue below normal. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region overnight through Monday. The exception will be in snow showers across the north Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon that may briefly lower conditions to MVFR at some sites. SHORT TERM: VFR for the most part w/the exception for the northern terminals as there could be periods of MVFR during the daytime hrs. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the waters overnight into Monday. Light freezing spray is also expected overnight into Monday. SHORT TERM: No headlines into Tuesday night w/winds averaging 15 kts and seas around 3 ft. There is a chance that winds could surge up to 25 kt by Wednesday w/seas apchg 5-6 ft. Depending on the track of the low to the s, winds could hit close to Gale Force especially across the outer zones by Wednesday night. && .CLIMATE... The high temperature of 15F at Caribou yesterday was just one degree shy of the record low high temperature of 14F, set in 1976. The 500 mb height on the 12z sounding at Caribou on 3/17 was 500 dam. This was very close to a record low for the date. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/CB Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Hewitt Marine...Bloomer/CB/Hewitt Climate...CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.