Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231322 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 922 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over northern New York and western New England will move off the southern New England coast this afternoon. Low pressure will track across the region later Wednesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 920am Update... Tweaked temperatures up a degree or two this afternoon, otherwise no changes. Sunny, mild day with just a few high clouds streaming in from the northwest in the afternoon. Previous discussion: Sfc high pressure centered over northern NY State and western New England early this morning will move off the southern New England coast this afternoon. Today will feature copious sunshine and a mild afternoon. 850-925H temps moderate around +5C over Sunday afternoon, and this should be enough with a light west wind to send temps into the l/m 60s for interior Downeast & the Greater Bangor Region, with mid 50s all the way north to the Saint John Valley. Based on the very low RH`s observed Sunday afternoon have gone well below guidance on the min RH/Tds this afternoon. Tonight will be mainly clear, but some high level moisture and cirrus may move in later tonight. Lows will likely be elevation dependent again with some 20s in the colder valleys, 30s for much of the area, but closer to 40 along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will exit to the east Tuesday through Tuesday night. Partly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Tuesday, with still mostly sunny skies Downeast. The return flow around exiting high pressure will draw moisture across the region from low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night. Clouds will increase across the forecast area Tuesday night. The low will lift north Wednesday through Wednesday night, though uncertainty still exists regarding the timing and track. Rain will begin to expand across the region Wednesday, with rain across the entire forecast area Wednesday night. Rain totals through Wednesday night are still uncertain. However, the greater totals appear to occur across Downeast areas, with lesser totals to the north. Above normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dependent on the timing/track of the low, rain should persist early Thursday then taper to showers during the afternoon. Could still have a chance of showers Thursday night, mostly across northern areas. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly cloudy skies across the region Thursday night. Low pressure will approach from the west later Friday. Clouds will increase across the region Friday, with a chance of showers mostly Friday night. The low will cross the region Saturday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers. An upper level trof will cross the region Sunday with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours. The sfc wind regime will be light, but there will be some wind aloft across far northern Maine late tonight that could produce some marginal low level wind shear very late tonight with a west wind of 30-35 knots at 2k ft agl. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Tuesday through Tuesday night, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop later Tuesday night. MVFR to LIFR conditions will develop Wednesday with developing rain, then persist through early Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Thursday afternoon, with VFR/MVFR conditions Thursday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the entire region Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected on the waters Tuesday through Wednesday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... There remains a limited threat of ice jams where ice remains on the northern rivers. Most of the ice has been flushed out on the Aroostook, with more extensive areas of ice on the Saint John and Allagash, but even on these rivers there are wide areas that are mainly ice free. The combination of significant snowmelt this week and rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night will cause the larger rivers to rise significantly this week and could reach bankfull by late in the week into next weekend. It remains uncertain if there will be any flooding, but at this time it would appear if there is flooding that it would be minor, but we will continue to closely monitor the situation. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Foisy Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...CB/Foisy/Norcross Marine...CB/Foisy/Norcross Hydrology...CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.