Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 050256 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 956 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail into next week, aside from a low pressure system to the south brushing the area late this week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Clear skies and light winds will persist through early Fri morning. A weak backdoor cold front will drop through later tonight, bringing a slight increase in surface winds. Overnight lows will likely range in the low/mid 40s for much of the area, but should stay in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will approach the region as a cold front shifts further south on Friday. All the while, a deep mid to upper level trough centered across eastern Canada will dig into the region and shortwave energy associated with the trough will help advect moisture into the area. Cloud cover is expected to increase late Friday night before clearing out on Sunday. There are some 12Z model discrepancies so still unsure of how much precip coverage the area will receive. Though, did limit POPs over land to slight chance and over the waters to chance. Any showers that do form should be light and no accumulation is expected. Winds could become gusty at times, mainly along the coast. High temperatures will be in the 60s on Friday, then mid 50s to low 60s on Saturday and Sunday. Friday night low temps will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. On Saturday, lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. While temps will be conducive for frost formation, Saturday night will not be a great night for radiational cooling and conditions seem too dry for widespread frost. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence this period as models are in decent agreement keeping high pressure in control with mainly dry weather, although there is a small chance for a few showers mid week as a coastal trough develops. The main forecast challenge will revolve around temperatures, which should stay below normal until possibly getting back near normal Tuesday. Still possible to see some frost and/or freezing temperatures inland each morning through Tuesday, with the best chance of a freeze Sunday night. Note that now that we`re back into the growing season we will be issuing Frost Advisories and Freeze Watches/Warnings as needed. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: While lower ceilings might develop late Friday into Sunday, prolonged flight restrictions are not expected. && .MARINE...
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Fairly weak SW flow through early Fri morning will turn N and strengthen later tonight behind a backdoor cold front. Cold air advection behind the front and a tightening of the pressure gradient will support a northerly wind up to 15-20 kt at times and seas up to 2-4 ft. Wind gusts could briefly touch 25 kt across some waters approaching daybreak, but the event will be quite limited in duration. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory is not needed at this time. Friday through Tuesday: NNE winds will prevail through Tuesday. As shortwave energy associated with an mid to upper level trough passes across the waters, the pressure gradient will become pinched. Winds will be 15-20 knots with occasional gusts to 25 knots and seas could approach 6 feet. Small Craft Advisories could be needed starting Friday, then again on Saturday though conditions seem marginal at this time. By late Sunday, winds and seas will subside as high pressure prevails.
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&& .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JRL SHORT TERM...RAD LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...JRL MARINE...JRL/RAD

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