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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 211138
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
638 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will be across the region today. The next
system tracking from the central Plains will move across the
Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring a
wintry mix followed by rain showers and a transition back to
snow for the local area. Low pressure for the end of the week
that will bring temperatures well below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Only change was do add some early morning flurries to northwest
PA. Media report of some fine precip falling. Otherwise no other
changes with this early morning update. Previous discussion
follows.

Remainder of the Winter Storm Warning has expired. Continuous
lake effect snow showers, albeit much lighter, have continued
all night across the southern and eastern suburbs of Cleveland
and eastward toward Geneva. Overnight snowfall reports have been
of upwards of 3 new inches of snow. The band that has wobbled on
either side of Geneva and across northeast Trumbull county is
beginning to lose its connection with Lake Huron. Still expect
the light snow showers to continue across the CLE metro area
and northeast OH through the morning hours. Caution will still
be needed on area roadways. With time today, shear will begin
to break up the bands of snow and the ridge will put an end to
the snow. Additional dustings to locally 2 or 3 more fluffy
inches possible.

Wind chill readings are coming in at between -10 and -20 degrees
and the Wind Chill Advisory remains through Noon when all should
be `warmer` than the -10 threshold. Winds will slowly diminish
throughout the day.

Outside of the lake effect clouds, skies will be clear.
Temperatures will recover just the upper single digits and lower
teens. A wind chill advisory is not anticipated for tonight. An
early drop in temperatures, many below zero, will be followed by
a slow rise across the west/steading temperatures across the
east. Increasing cloud cover and the beginning of a surge of
warm air advection will halt the drop. Winds will also be
lighter at the coldest part of the night. Precip will hold off
until after the daytime Tuesday. A slow, but steady warming
trend will bring late day highs to the upper 20s and close to
the freezing mark Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An active midweek period is expected with precip type
transitions and temperature fluctuations. The main focus will be
low pressure moving into the central Great Lakes by early
Wednesday morning, followed by a cold frontal passage later
Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will attempt to
build across the region Thursday into Thursday night. The latest
model runs have some noticeable differences with the
timing/speed and strength of the low moving into the region and
the timing of the frontal passage. Given the uncertainty with
the model solutions, kept the forecast fairly close to its
previous iteration, with the highest pops (categorical) from 06Z
Wednesday through 00Z Thursday. A wintry mix is possible at the
onset of precip early Wednesday morning, but this will
transition to mainly rain for much of the late morning/early
afternoon across the area. Behind the front, colder air will
move into the area allowing for a transition back to snow
Wednesday afternoon/evening, with a transition to all snow, or
possibly freezing drizzle with model sounding showing little ice
in the clouds, after 06Z Thursday. There is also some
uncertainty with the exit of the front east out of the area, as
a southern stream low tracks northward along the Atlantic coast,
helping to anchor the front west of the Appalachians into
Thursday. Have opted for chance pops across the east Thursday
before ridging briefly builds into the area. Precip chances
increase Thursday night as another arctic front barrels toward
the area, however timing/forcing and moisture differences lend
to lower confidence in finer details at this point, so will opt
for blanket chance pops Thursday night. A non-diurnal
temperature trend is expected Tuesday night through midday
Wednesday ahead of the front, with temps rising through the 30s
Tuesday night into the mid 40s Wednesday. Some guidance suggests
temps could rise in the upper 40s, but will remain conservative
given model differences and deep snowpack across the local
area. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to low 30s,
with lows dropping into the teens Thursday night with the arctic
frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period will be dominated by significant troughing
across the entire eastern CONUS, with negative height/temp
anomalies. Predominantly northwest flow will put the region in
the crosshairs for a clipper system over the weekend, although
model solutions are all over the place with timing/strength. It
looks like the best timeframe for widespread snow will be
sometime Saturday or Saturday night, with lake effect snow
outside of this timeframe. Have generally went with chance pops
for the period, with highs generally in the upper teens to low
20s and lows in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Light lake effect and flurries remain near CLE/CAK and dotted
across northeast OH/NW PA. Trend for the day is for this to
weaken further and end this evening. The lake cloud cover is
MVFR and will remain that way until lifting late this afternoon.
Snow showers bring occasional IFR vsby. Northwest winds still
with minor gusts across northeast OH/nw PA will relax and back
to the west and finally south-southeast by Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to subside over the lake today as high
pressure builds across the region, but will keep the small craft
advisory and heavy freezing spray warning east of the Islands
through mid morning with some higher winds/waves out there early
this morning. Satellite images indicate widespread ice
formation west of the Island, with the ice extending eastward
from Point Pelee south to Huron. Conditions will be optimal for
continued ice growth over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase
out of the south on Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front, becoming westerly then northwesterly Wednesday night into
Thursday. An arctic front will cross the lake Thursday night
through Friday, with winds increasing out of the northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ144>149-164>169.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Greenawalt