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000
FXUS61 KCLE 081947
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Ohio this evening will shift
eastward on Sunday. A warm front will lift northeastward across
the region on Monday. Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes
Monday night will extend a cold front across the area on
Tuesday. High pressure will return to the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Afternoon cumulus will slowly dissipate through sunset. High
pressure remains in control of the region tonight. This high
will begin to shift eastward on Sunday with a southerly wind
developing. Tonight will be the last cool and less humid night
with lows in the mid 50`s to lower 60`s. Warmer on Sunday with
highs in the 80`s, around 90 across NW OH.

Humidity returns Sunday night with a few more clouds floating
into the region. This will cause temperatures to be warmer
overnight with lows in the mid 60`s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Westerly flow aloft affects our CWA as a ridge aloft exits to the
east and an eastward-moving longwave trough overspreads the Great
Lakes region. Multiple shortwave disturbances embedded in the
longwave trough will affect our region. At the surface, a high
pressure ridge exits our CWA generally to the east as a cool
front approaches from the west Monday and Monday night. The
clockwise, outward circulation of the ridge`s high pressure
center in vicinity of the southern Appalachians will draw Gulf
of Mexico moisture into our area, allowing humidity to increase
in the warm sector. The cool front should drift eastward through
our CWA during the predawn hours through afternoon hours of
Tuesday. Behind this front, a weak surface high pressure ridge
builds from the west through Tuesday night.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through
the period, especially Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon in
association with the approach and then passage of the cool front.
Despite weak vertical wind shear, moderate to strong instability
amidst moderate to strong DCAPE may allow a few pulse thunderstorms
to produce wet downbursts and associated damaging wind gusts Monday
afternoon/early evening and again Tuesday afternoon. Monday should
feature afternoon highs in the mid 80`s to lower 90`s. Monday night
should have lows in the mid 60`s to lower 70`s. Tuesday will be
slightly cooler, with highs in the 80`s. Lows should once again
reach the mid 60`s to lower 70`s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The longwave trough aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances will
advance slowly from the Great Lakes and vicinity toward the Canadian
Maritimes and New England. Behind this trough, a high pressure ridge
aloft should build eastward over our CWA, especially Thursday night
through Saturday. However, a longwave trough should undercut the
ridge as the trough`s embedded mid- to upper-level low craws
eastward from the Mid Mississippi Valley Thursday night through
Saturday. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging should persist
over our region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain possible each day, especially during the afternoon and early
evening hours given the typical diurnal cycle in temperature and
instability. Temperatures should trend near or slightly above-normal
(i.e. lows in the 60`s to 70 degrees and highs in the low to mid
80`s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Afternoon cumulus will lift to around 4500 feet before
dissipating around sunset. Expect the VFR conditions to
continue through most of the night. There could be some patchy
MVFR fog that develops near KCAK and KYNG but confidence too
low to mention at this time.

Will see some onshore flow along the lakeshore with northwest
to west winds through the evening. Speeds should be 10 knots or
less. Elsewhere light and variable winds will continue into
tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with afternoon showers and thunderstorms
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds persist over Lake Erie through nightfall as
a high pressure center remains over the lake. Winds become southerly
to southwesterly at about 5 to 15 knots tonight through Monday
evening as the high pressure center advances toward the southern
Appalachians. A cool front should drift eastward across Lake Erie
Tuesday morning through afternoon, causing 5 to 15 knot winds to
shift from southwesterly to westerly. Light and variable winds
return by Tuesday night as weak high pressure builds over Lake Erie
from the west and north. Easterly to northeasterly winds of about 5
to 15 knots will accompany the building high pressure Wednesday
through Thursday. Waves will likely be no larger than 1 to 3 feet
through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Jaszka