Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 270137 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 937 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Looking at a continuation of the warm and humid weather pattern through the weekend. The ridge of high pressure to our south will strengthen Friday into the weekend. A series of storm complexes moving on the periphery of the ridge out of the Upper Lakes and into the area on and off through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... No changes from previous update. Cannot completely rule out a pop up shower/thunderstorm overnight, but chances are under 15 percent. Boundary still laying across the area. Previous discussion follows. Cumulus field continues to grow across the area under a warm summertime airmass. Drier air in the midlevels associated with a weak boundary sliding east across the region with more stable air behind it. Some cumulus clouds have developed in the still moist/unstable air ahead of it, and eventually a few isolated showers possible in the far southeast portions of the area. The lake breeze convergence will support some isolated showers but it will struggle in the drier air. Some bulk shear may lend to a few higher gusts within any storms that do develop...but do not expect any severe storms. Return flow increases overnight and enough moisture advection could support a stray shower after midnight. By morning models show deeper moisture spreading northward to the lake, again favoring isolated to scattered activity, mainly during peak heating. Some of the models are aggressive with the shower coverage, but have limited it to 20/30 POPs due to lower confidence given the poor performance in these environments. Some guidance continues to linger enough support for showers continuing off and on at times through Thursday, with coverage expected along a lake breeze. Warm high temps Thursday in the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A dissipating boundary will be over the region through the near term. This combined with weak upper level disturbances and a humid airmass will be enough to generate scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. It will be tough to pinpoint exactly where the convection will be but imagine the lake breeze will be a big factor on Friday along with any outflow or differential heating areas near the higher terrain. The previous days rainfall may also be enough to create a boundary for convection to develop along. So mesoscale boundaries will likely drive everything with a little enhancement at times aloft. Temperatures will feel like summer with highs into the 80s and lows in the mid 60s to around 70. Heat index values will likely reach into the lower 90s for several locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... More of the same through the long term as upper level heights rise. This increasing upper level ridging will attempt to limit the convection Sunday into Monday. So maybe we we will be able to knock things back to isolated coverage as we gain more confidence in the models. Models are hinting at a slightly stronger cold front/wind shift at some point Tuesday into Wednesday. So expect an up tick in the coverage of the convection as the boundary dissipates over the region. Again it appears that mesoscale boundaries will likely drive everything with a little enhancement at times aloft. Temperatures remain slightly above seasonal averages through the long term. It will remain humid so heat index values will get to at least the middle to upper 80s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Largely VFR conditions for the next 24 hours with limited chances/coverage of any thunderstorms. Some morning BR possible, but likely not at any of the TAF sites. Moisture increases some for Thursday and there is a minor shortwave to cross midday. This may be enough to spark a few isolated/scattered thunderstorms. Winds will be light/variable tonight and be light southwesterly Thursday. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday through Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Several weak boundaries will meander across the lake through Saturday night. The strongest boundary likely crossing the lake Saturday night. Winds generally remain under 15 knots away from any of the thunderstorms. Nearshore waters will have onshore flow tomorrow and maybe Friday but then southwest to west winds will be common. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jamison NEAR TERM...Jamison/Oudeman SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...KEC/MM AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...MM

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