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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 290220
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1020 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift slightly to the
east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to move through the area.
High pressure will remain across the region through at least
Tuesday. A system will move through the northern United States
early next week and a front will approach the area for
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
930 pm update...
There were no adjustments made for this late evening near term
forecast update. The ongoing forecast remains on track with
quiet and pleasant weather thanks to high pressure across the
region.

Previous discussion...
With the area encompassed by surface high pressure and the
backside of an upper trough, all rain has cleared the region and
clouds continue to break up across the area. With a sizable
pocket of moisture around 4000 ft and diurnal heating to help
support cumulus development, a mix of partly cloudy and mostly
cloud conditions will continue through the early evening. High
pressure becomes more dominant tonight and low level moisture
starts to move out so cloud cover will decrease quickly and
temperatures will fall with the diurnal cycle, likely lower than
this morning`s highs in several areas. A dry warm front will
pass tonight and an upper ridge begins to strengthen over the
region on Sunday and temperatures will start their warming trend
for the start of next week. High temperatures will rise into
the 80s for most on Sunday. With the region in the warm sector,
some mixing should take place and southerly winds will be
favored across the region. Some wind gusts to 25 mph are
possible in Northwest and North Central Ohio. Low temperatures
on Sunday night will remain elevated in the 60s with continued
warming across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level ridging continues to encompass the eastern third of the
CONUS with the anticyclonic circulation centered over the central
Appalachians through the short term period. Large scale subsidence
and dry air associated with this ridge will result in mostly sunny
skies. Locally, 500mb thicknesses are generally around 586-588 dm
with 850 mb temperatures around 15-18C. Boundary-layer mixing with
daytime heating with result in hot temperatures Monday and Tuesday
afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s on
Monday. Slightly higher 850mb temperatures on Tuesday will result in
slightly higher temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Large lake-land temperature difference will be favorable for lake
breeze development though surface winds of 10-15 knots out of the
south and southwest may inhibit inland progression of that lake
breeze, especially for areas west of Cleveland in north-central to
northwest Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday, a cold front extended from a surface low located near
Georgian Bay will move southeast across the area. There is some
uncertainty on the timing of this front but at this point it should
cross the area anytime between Wednesday morning and late Wednesday
evening. Ahead of this front, dew points in the mid to upper 60s
will contribute to MUCAPE of around 1500 J/kg. The cap that was
present the previous several days will erode with synoptic scale
lift for ascent, leaving near zero MLCIN by early afternoon. Strong
forcing with the cold front and uncapped instability should result
in a line of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front on
Wednesday. Deep layer shear vector nearly parallel to the cold front
should result in upscale linear growth and 30 knots 0-6 km bulk wind
difference should result in at least a marginal chance for organized
severe convection. The timing of the cold front will largely
determine convection and severe weather chances as it will need to
come through during the afternoon/evening to allow for day-time
heating to sufficiently destabilize the atmosphere.

Some model guidance has an upper-level trough moving across the area
on Thursday or Thursday night with an associated surface low moving
across the Ohio Valley, resulting in rain showers and afternoon
thunderstorms across the area. However, other model guidance does
not have these features with no QPF. Ended up going with the
ensemble mean and only chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night
until model consensus can converge on a better solution. Most model
guidance has high pressure building in, keeping the area rain-free
on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period and continue
through the Memorial Day holiday. High pressure is bringing fair
weather with very nice flying conditions. We will have
scattered high level cirrus from time to time as well as some
diurnally driven scattered fair weather cumulus return during
Sunday afternoon around 4K or 5K feet. The scattered CU should
have any impact to aviation. Winds will remain generally on the
light side tonight becoming south around 5 knots. Winds will
increase slightly between 8 and 11 knots late on Sunday with a
few gusts up to 20 knots for FDY and TOL possible during the
afternoon hours. We did not put a lake breeze wind shift in the
TAF for ERI Sunday afternoon but it could be possible and may be
added with a future TAF update.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon and evening in
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure resides over the mid-Atlantic region this
afternoon, making very little progress through midweek. Weak south
to southwest winds persist on Lake Erie through Wednesday as a
result. Lake breeze development due to a large lake-land temperature
difference could lead to onshore flow in the Lake Erie nearshore
waters despite the environmental southerly winds. A cold front moves
south across the lake on Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders