Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 260707 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 307 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the local area by midday. High pressure will move from the Plains today to the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Another low pressure system will move northeast to James Bay by Thursday night forcing a cold front east across the area Friday. High pressure will build back over the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As expected showers with embedded thunder have blossomed over the area overnight. The surface cold front responsible for this activity is just now crossing into western Ohio. The front should be east of the local area by midday. The remaining precip will quickly end from west to east today. By 12z most locations west of I-71 should be dry. The threat for severe weather has also ended. Will need to keep high pops early today but by 18z even the eastern end of the area will be dry. Will not mention any thunder after 12z. This afternoon through Thursday period will be quiet as high pressure builds over the area from the southwest. Skies will be slow to clear in the cold air advection behind the front but some sunshine is possible by late today in the west. It will be crisp night with the coolest temperatures of the season so far. Thursday will be fall like as well with cumulus developing by midday and cool temperatures again expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Broad upper level troughing will slide east across Canada and the northern tier states of the lower 48 Thursday night into Friday. Ridging will begin to build into the western United States by Saturday and extend east toward the western Great Lakes. Surface low pressure will move east through central Canada forcing a cold front east across the local area Friday. Strong high pressure in response to west coast upper level ridge will build east across the area Saturday and Saturday night. Cold air advection in the wake of the cold front and on the east side of the high pressure center will cause some lake effect to develop Friday night into Saturday. Will mention slight chance for showers over the east this time. Otherwise, as high pressure builds east, fair weather will return. Warm air advection will take place ahead of the cold front Friday followed by the cold air advection through the rest of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper level ridge begins to build north out of the Gulf of Mexico through this forecast period. This will allow surface high pressure to build east to the Atlantic Coast by Monday. A warm front will lift north across the local area Sunday into Sunday night. Moisture is expected to stream in from the west out of southern Canada but the bulk of it is expected to remain north of the area. This will limit the threat for showers to the northern tier Sunday and Sunday night. The warm front will become nearly stationary and then slip back south across the northern tier counties by Monday. This will increase the threat for showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. The Gulf of Mexico is expected to open up again and send a surge of moisture back north toward the area by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. A gradual warming trend is expected through the period as the high shifts well east of the area and warm air advection returns. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Starting to see an expansion in the precip coverage and this trend will continue the next few hours. Some embedded thunder is possible but most of the precip overnight will just be showers. The surface cold front responsible for this activity is just about to the OH border and is expected to be east of the area by midday. Widespread MVFR conditions will develop overnight with a period of IFR cigs also possible...especially inland areas. Cigs will gradually lift from west to east during the daylight hours with much of the area VFR by 18z. Skies will likely SCT out at some point in the west. S to SW flow gusting to around 20 knots will become NW behind the cold front. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR across NE OH/NW PA Wednesday night into Thursday. Some non-VFR possible Friday night. && .MARINE... A cold front will push east across the lake this morning shifting winds around to a northwest direction for this afternoon at around 15 knots sustained. Will expand beach hazards and small craft advisory further west to the islands. Winds will increase out of the northwest behind the front. However, a fairly rapid decrease in the winds will take place tonight as high pressure builds east toward the local area. Light and variable winds are expected Thursday morning but will begin to increase out of the southwest by Thursday night on the back side of the high pressure. A cold front will move east across the lake Friday and this will shift winds around to the northwest again by Friday evening and Friday night. There is the possibility that a small craft advisory will be needed again Friday. Winds become light and variable Saturday into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening for OHZ012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ147>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kubina SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Kubina MARINE...Lombardy

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