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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221947
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southern Ohio will sag slowly southward as
another area of low pressure over southern Ontario weakens
through the night. An upper level trough will remain in place
over the central Great Lakes through much of next week with a
couple more pieces of jet energy enhancing thunderstorm chances
at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure over southern Ohio will sag slowly southward as
another area of low pressure over southern Ontario weakens
through the night. Currently seeing a boundary move southward
off of Lake Erie with a few showers enhancing as the boundary
interacts with the higher terrain. This will dissipate early
this evening but a trough rotating northwest around the main
portion of the upper low will likely move some showers, maybe a
thunderstorm, westward across the area through the evening.
Current thinking is that this area of rain will at least
decrease in coverage overnight. There will then be a diurnal
increase in showers and thunderstorms on Monday with models
hinting that the best chances mid afternoon into early evening
across the central portion of the county warning area.

The region will remain somewhat humid tonight through monday
night. Lows tonight and Monday night will be near seasonal
averages. A bit more sunshine Monday should allow most
locations to at least touch 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly unsettled mid week period is expected across the
region, as an upper low across the Ohio/Tennessee valley fills
and and upper trough lingers across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. Best moisture return and light will be across the
eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday,
although the best forcing will be just east of the forecast
area. Have opted for likely pops east during the daytime hours,
with peak pops during the daytime hours dropping back to chance
during the night. The aforementioned trough will fill and move
east away from the region Wednesday night into Thursday, however
another upper trough and attendant surface cold front will
approach the area from the northwest Thursday. Models differ a
bit with the timing of this feature, so have kept pops in the
slight chance range for the day on Thursday. Kept temps closer
to previous forecast with a blend towards MOS consensus.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term begins Thursday night with models showing a cold front
bisecting the area with drier air moving in from the west. Lifted
index and moisture appear enough to support scattered convection
east third through the overnight.  This change threat looks to hang
on into the morning Friday with models bringing a disturbance aloft
across the lake before drying from the west.  Friday afternoon
through Saturday will keep the area dry as a weak high moves through
the lower Ohio Valley. Low pressure and an upper disturbance follow
out of the central plains Saturday night and Sunday so will ramp up
pops especially Sunday and Sunday night. Highs mostly upper 70s to
near 80. Lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
MVFR ceilings should gradually lift through the afternoon.
However they should return overnight with most locations seeing
MVFR conditions by sunrise. A few inland locations may see some
patchy fog. KYNG and maybe KCAK may see some evening convection
but timing will be difficult. There should then be a lull in
the showers overnight with a slight increase around sunrise.
THunder will return by Monday afternoon but just beyond the
current TAF period.

Winds at all locations should become northerly through the
afternoon and slowly decrease. However there will be a few wind
gusts that touch 20 to 25 knots, especially across NW OH. Winds
on Monday will generally be light. The exception will be across
NW PA where southeast winds will increase into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR possible Monday night through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to linger over the Ohio River valley
while a weaker low just north of the eastern end of the lake moves
westward and fills this evening. Winds out of the north at 15 kts
across the western half of the lake will continue to subside through
the evening, and while small craft conditions are still marginal,
have continued the headline though 10 PM, although it may be
cancelled early. Winds will be fairly light and variable over the
lake tonight and Monday as a weakening surface trough lingers around
mid lake through Monday night before dissipating. Really not
expecting a significant increase in winds until at least Thursday,
as southwest flow increases ahead of the cold front. The front will
move across the lake sometime Thursday or Thursday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ003-007-009>012.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Greenawalt/Jamison