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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 301934
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England
Coast back west over the local area through Thursday. Another ridge
will build south out of Ontario, Canada Thursday night and persist
through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper level high pressure will be the dominating weather feature
through the next 36 hours across the local forecast area. A ridge of
high pressure extending west at the surface from the New England
Coast should be relatively stationary during this period as well.
Strong subsidence and return southerly flow into the area should
keep a persistent warm air advection pattern in place.  Expecting
the gradient winds to diminish slightly this afternoon allowing lake
breeze to slide just onshore near the immediate lakeshore.  Land
breeze develops again this evening pushing the cooler lake air back
over the lake.  There were a few diurnal cumulus developing over the
Toledo and Findlay area but expecting this to dissipate this
evening. Should see a repeat again tomorrow with the temperatures
and fair weather cumulus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Very quiet and warm weather with above normal temperatures will
continue the rest of the week as a large blocking ridge of high
pressure remains in control. This mid/upper ridge will remain
centered over the Great Lakes, Northeast CONUS, and Mid Atlantic
Thursday and gradually retrograde toward the Northern Plains Friday
and Friday night. Broad surface high pressure will remain over the
central Great Lakes as well, basically centered beneath the core of
the mid/upper ridge. The strong and widespread subsidence will
maintain clear skies through the end of the week, and 850 mb temps
around 18 C will support highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Thursday and
Friday. The mean low-level flow will still be easterly to
southeasterly through the end of the week due to the broad surface
high to the N and E, and this will lead to onshore flow in the
afternoon hours due to the lake breeze influence. This should keep
lakeshore areas in the mid 80s for highs, but inland areas will
certainly touch 90. The dry airmass will still allow for decent
cooling at night, so expect lows to fall into the upper 50s/low 60s
Thursday and Friday nights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The mid/upper ridge axis retrograding into the Northern Plains by
Saturday will allow a mid/upper trough to drop into New England and
the far eastern Great Lakes. The upper level energy will miss our
area to the NE, but a weak backdoor cold front still looks to push
into the area Saturday or Saturday night. Dew points will come up to
near 60 F ahead of the front, but a lack of deep moisture and almost
no forcing in our area should support a dry frontal passage, so kept
the forecast dry Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure
will build back down from the NE Sunday with temperatures a few
degrees cooler, but still a good 8 to 10 degrees above normal.

The pattern may finally start to change somewhat Sunday night
through Tuesday as the mid/upper ridge drifts further west toward
the Rockies and a deep trough digs toward the eastern Great Lakes.
12Z deterministic guidance is suggesting a closed H5 low may drop
into the eastern Great Lakes Monday or Tuesday as the trough
deepens, but timing and depth of this feature is still uncertain.
This will be the best chance for rain over the next 7 to 10 days,
but expect coverage to still be scattered given the lack of deep
moisture ahead of the associated boundary. Kept PoPs at slight
chance Monday and Tuesday, mainly in the afternoons, with
temperatures trending cooler.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Lake breeze is struggling to get going as southerly synoptic
winds remain in control. Expecting winds to diminish slightly
later this afternoon and lake breeze should push as far south as
Erie but should remain out of Cleveland. Clear skies prevail
across the entire area through this period. Lake will make an
attempt to develop again tomorrow.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
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Very quiet conditions will continue on the lake through the end of
the week as high pressure remains in control. SE winds of 5-10 knots
overnight and in the mornings will become NE at 10-15 knots each
afternoon due to lake breeze development. This will keep waves under
2 feet all week. A weak cold front will drop across the lake from
the NE Saturday or Saturday night, and this will lead to a bit
stronger and more defined NE flow by late Saturday and Sunday, but
winds and waves should still stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Garuckas