Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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803 FXUS61 KCLE 201349 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 949 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift northeast across the area tonight. A cold front will move slowly east toward the local area by Sunday night. Low pressure will develop along the front late Sunday night and move east Monday. The trailing cold front will move east of the area Monday afternoon. High pressure will build east across the middle Mississippi Valley region into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Temperatures began the day a bit cooler than originally anticipated and have slowed down the temperature trend for this morning into the afternoon. Still expecting temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the region and increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Previous Discussion... An upper level ridge is expected to remain nearly stationary through the day today as a potent little shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity maximum moves east across Lake Erie today. Latest radar shows thunderstorm activity beginning to develop here at sunrise just south of the forecast area. More convection continues to move east from Illinois and will slowly may progress east by this afternoon. A limited area of moisture is expected to move into the western portions of the forecast area today. Dewpoints will rise into the 60s over the western half the area as well. There should be enough instability and upper level support to produce some isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. Will introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the west today. Otherwise, in the east half of the area expecting fair weather to continue through the day. A lake breeze will likely develop along the lakeshore and this should keep any convection that develops south of the lake. Warm air advection will take place today and boost temperatures in the middle 80s west to upper 70s to lower 80s in the east. Best surge of warmer air will arrive later tonight with the warm front. Slight amplification of the upper level ridge will take place tonight in response to the digging upper level trough over the Plains states. The upper level shortwave progged to move east across the local area this afternoon and evening will shift east by Saturday morning. This will reduce any leftover evening threat for showers and thunderstorms in the west and expect activity to diminish overnight. Otherwise, should see fair weather continuing tonight. Lows overnight will remain well into the 60s in the west and around 60 east as warm air advection strengthens behind the warm front. The upper level ridge will move east of the area Saturday and keep the warm air advection streaming northeast into the local area. This will allow temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 80s most areas and possibly even flirt with the 90 degree mark in the west. Some lingering effects of the exiting shortwave trough could cause a few showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the area and once again away from the lake during the afternoon hours. Will keep a slight chance for Saturday afternoon. Cold front does not arrive until late Sunday night into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures will be running well above normal on Sunday as a slow moving cold front remains to our west. Will go with a breezy, dry, and warm forecast through much of Sunday. With guidance running so cool as of late and the front/much convective coverage looking likely to wait until after mid afternoon have bumped temperatures up several degrees which is closer to ECMWF`s warmer temperatures. We may get close to marginal fire weather concerns. Shower chances increase for Sunday night and early Monday. Will continue the mention of thunder. Front passes by early Monday and highs Monday will be much closer to mid September normals. A lingering trough across the eastern Great Lakes may continue the shower chances a bit longer into Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds east to the Ohio Valley for Tuesday. The flow aloft is more zonal and will keep the seasonable temperatures around for a few days. Closer to Thursday some return flow and a front across the central lakes may yield showers for Thursday. For now will leave a low chance until details can be worked out. Temperatures Wednesday/Thursday will warm into the mid/upper 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... An upper level disturbance is expected to move east across the area today and tonight over the top of the upper level ridge. This feature along with some increasing moisture could produce a stray shower or thunderstorm over the western portions of the forecast area mainly away from the lake. Can`t rule out even a very isolated cell over the east this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the exception of some lower ceilings developing in the east by the end of the period. Winds should be fairly light through the period. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog Saturday morning and in showers/thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. && .MARINE... Quiet on the lake Friday/Saturday with light gradient winds and high pressure across the mid-Atlantic extending to the eastern lakes. Will get an onshore component this afternoon and across only the far east end Saturday. By Sunday a breezy system and a cold front will be nearing. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots with the choppiest water further offshore. Most of the wind precedes the cold front Sunday night and by Monday winds westerly winds will be subsiding. There will be period that a Small Craft Advisory will be needed. A trough lingers Monday across the eastern lakes and by Tuesday high pressure will be working across the Ohio Valley. This will bring winds back around to the southwest mid week as the high shifts east. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Oudeman

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