Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 281810 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 210 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the area today and become nearly stationary until this evening as a strong low pressure system moves into the western Great Lakes. A cold front will push east across the area Sunday morning. The low pressure system will move northeast toward Quebec Sunday night and allow a trough to rotate southeast across the area. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the local area Monday night into Tuesday and shift east Wednesday. A low pressure system will move east into the central Great Lakes Thursday and east of the area by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Convection has been active across the area so far today with numerous reports of hail, many up to golf ball size, along the elevated warm front. This has been occurring on the north side of a surface wave sliding east across the area. We have also had additional heavy rain of 0.5 to 1.0" of rain on top of areas that received up to an inch of rain in the last 24 hours. Cancelled portions of the Flood Watch across western and central Ohio and expanded the Watch farther north to include generally our 2 northern tiers of counties where the heaviest rain has occurred. This area is expected to see additional rainfall overnight and storms may train in advance of the surface warm front, leading to a threat of flash flooding. In addition, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued as as the actual warm front lifts north into the area through 7 PM. Once storms exit NE Ohio, we may see a break in the more robust convection given considerable cloud cover but eventually expecting the more unstable airmass to lift north, renewing the threat of severe storms into this evening. This activity will likely be surfaced based adding a wind and to a lesser extent tornado threat. Previous Discussion... A potent upper level low pressure system will move east- northeast out of the central Plains states to the central Great Lakes by Sunday. This feature will result in a deep surface low pressure that will deepen as it moves northeast into the central Great Lakes region Sunday. A warm front ahead of the low pressure system will move north across the area today and become nearly stationary until this evening. The front has been and will be the focusing mechanism for showers and even some strong thunderstorms today and tonight. Latest radar showed some showers and a few embedded thunderstorms moving east across the area at midnight. However, as the early morning progressed, over the last few hours, convection began to develop over Indiana and Illinois an is headed toward our forecast area. The more impressive air mass is south of the warm front where temperatures were still in the 60s and lower 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. This air mass will lift north into the area by this evening along with some hodographs indicating fairly good shear across the area. As destabilization occurs, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the area this evening. LCL heights are expected to be rather low and with shear profile, can`t rule out a tornado threat as well. Would not be surprised as updates come out for severe weather threat that local area may be adjusted with an increased threat for severe thunderstorms. So stay tuned. Warm front lifts north across the area today and after becoming stationary will lift north of the area tonight. The front will aid in warming temperatures across the area today well into the 60s. Temperatures will hover in the 60s for much of the area tonight for overnight lows and then climb even higher possibly touching 70 on Sunday in the warm sector. Some of the guidance is suggesting temperatures slightly higher than currently forecast but with rain and multi layer clouds, will hold temperatures down slightly. Cold front moves east of the area Sunday and this will allow a surface trough from the low pressure system to rotate into the local area. Drier air will move in behind the front and this will reduce the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A vertically stacked upper level trough and strong surface low pressure system will be move across the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario Sunday night. Blustery conditions will continue Sunday night with southwesterly to westerly winds between 15 to 25 mph and occasional gusts up to 35 mph. Cloudy skies will remain with occasional scattered showers late Sunday night into Monday on the backside of the exiting storm system. As the flow becomes more northwesterly, colder air aloft at 850 mb will develop instability with moisture from the Great Lakes causing lake effect clouds and rain showers on Monday lingering into Monday night. The overall surface flow weakens by Tuesday with high pressure nosing down from north of the Great Lakes region. At this time, it looks like the clouds will hang on through the short term period and beyond into the long term period. An extended period of clouds, gloomy skies will be around for much of next week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next upper and mid level wave will move across the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional rain showers will move across the area during the middle of the week. The overall weather pattern continues to look unsettled with a large upper level trough develop over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley late next week. A series of disturbances will rotate through the region with clouds and period of rain showers. Temperatures will remain on the cool side and slightly below average. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Showers and thunderstorms have been moving east across the area as a wave of low pressure slides east overhead. Thunderstorms have been producing frequent lightning, heavy rain, and hail but the stronger storms will exit to the east through 20Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the area this afternoon through this evening as the surface based warm front moves north ahead of a stronger low pressure system over Iowa. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to produce heavy rain with the potential for severe wind gusts this evening and again overnight as the cold front arrives from the west. Much of northern Ohio is seeing low IFR conditions behind this wave with ceilings likely going to lower to IFR at CAK/YNG over the next 2 hours. Eventually ceilings will improve to potentially VFR as the warm front lifts north overnight with pockets of MVFR/IFR in heavy showers. VFR likely behind the cold front. Winds will be north to northeasterly until the warm front arrives with a wind shift to the south this evening. Southwest winds will become strong with the passage of the cold front early Sunday with winds gusting to 35-45 knots. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible through Sunday in intermittent periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A warm front is slowly moving northward across Ohio today with a easterly flow increasing over the lake this morning. Easterly winds will be 15 to 20 knots today on the lake with slightly higher waves in the open waters. Will continue to monitor for any piling of water on the western basin due to the longer time period of the easterly flow for any minor lakeshore flooding today. The warm front will briefly move across the lake this evening with a gusty southerly to southwester flow 15 to 20 knots. A strong cold front will move across the lake Sunday morning with strong gusty southwest winds increasing 20 to 30 knot over the lake with gusts up to 45 possible. This will likely be a higher end Small Craft Advisory but if the winds appear to be any stronger than forecast, we could be approaching some Gales on the lake Sunday. This will be something to watch closely. An extended SCA conditions will lake Sunday night into Monday. Gusty winds become more westerly by Monday morning and will slowly relax late on Monday 10 to 15 knots. Weak high pressure moves in by Monday night with a light northerly flow 5 to 10 knots. But low pressure developing south of the lake Tuesday will develop gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 20 knots again. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>014- 018>023-089. PA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC/Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.