Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 180138 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 938 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Barry will move east from Lake Erie to central Pennsylvania tonight. A warm front will lift northeast across the area late tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build up the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains Thursday and remain nearly stationary through Saturday. A cold front will slide southeast across the region Saturday night with a reinforcing cold front Sunday night. High pressure will build south toward the area early next week with cooler air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... All shower and thunderstorm activity has pushed south or east of the forecast area and will expect dry conditions to continue through the overnight. Main concern for the overnight into Thursday is for fog development over the region. High dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s and residual moisture from rain this afternoon are favorable factors for fog development. Will maintain a patchy fog wording in the forecast, but some spots of dense fog may be possible and will need to be monitored overnight. Previous Discussion... The remnants of Barry continue to rotate over Lake Erie at this time and will continue to increase in speed this afternoon and evening toward the east. The low is expected to move to central Pennsylvania tonight. Latest radar indicates a significant increase in convection across the eastern half of the forecast area as day time heating continues to help destabilize the atmosphere. There is still a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area. On top of that, latest precipitable water plots indicate values just above 2.0 inches across the area. So, rainfall rates in any convection will be quite high. Good news is that cells are moving but the bad news is some cells are trying to train resulting in multiple rounds of heavy rain. So, ponding of water and rapid rises of small streams and creeks is possible. As the low pressure system moves east of the area tonight and the sun goes down, loss of diurnal heating and instability will aid in reduction of thunderstorm threat. A warm front is progged to move northeast of the area late tonight ushering much warmer air. Winds are expected to become calm to light and there is the possibility with residual low level moisture that some patchy dense fog of one quarter mile or less will develop across the area. Fog and stratus should burn off tomorrow morning for another fair weather day as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the region and pump hot air northeast toward the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Expecting lows to drop into the upper 60s tonight followed by highs in the middle to upper 80s east to lower 90s west. This will bring apparent temperatures to between 100 and 103 degrees for heat index. A heat advisory may be needed in the west. Thursday night`s lows will be quite warm and muggy in the lower 70s east to middle 70s west. This is only the beginning of a couple day heat wave. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The headline for the end of the week continues to be the heat. Will still see mid/upper 90s with heat indices topping 100. Akron to Cleveland and points west still with the best likelihood of hitting 105 heat index or greater. Have included the Youngstown metro area in the Excessive Heat Watch as well. The urban area will be close to that 105 mark. All others can expect to see a Heat Advisory as we near Friday. Fairly high confidence in the high temps Friday and Saturday, but mixing and lowering dewpoints a few degrees will help the apparent temperatures a touch. Lows will be muggy and warm in the 70s and provide no real relief. Precip chances will be very limited Friday with the area largely capped the further south and west you go under the dome of heat. Saturday night though a cold front nears and begin to increase the precip chances. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fortunately the heat will only be around for a few days and a relief will come with a cold front to cross either late Saturday night or on Sunday. There is still some spread on when it will cross and therefore effect precip chances, temperatures, and storm severity. The high in its wake, though, will build across the region for early next week with temperature returning to seasonal norms and humidity dropping significantly. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... With the remnant low of Barry leaving the airspace this evening, high pressure is beginning to enter the eastern Great Lakes region. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of this evening as all convective activity exits the region and any remaining cu dissipates with the loss of daytime heating. The main concern for this TAF package will be the potential for non-VFR visibilities and ceilings. The low levels of the atmosphere are still fairly saturated after rain the last several days and with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Have a mix of MVFR and IFR visibilities across the area as calm winds should favor fog over stratus. Have backed off on the widespread quarter mile and dense fog at all TAF sites as any dense fog will be patchy at best and too conditional to mention within any TAF at this time. VFR conditions will return for Thursday with light winds. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday. && .MARINE... Light north winds in the wake of the remnant Barry low, now southeast of the lake, will continue tonight with light/variable winds expected Thursday. A warm front will cross the lake between Thursday and Friday. Southwest winds with an afternoon onshore component will take place Friday and Saturday. The east end of the lake may near Small Craft Advisory conditions each afternoon. A cold front will cross the lake either late Saturday night or early Sunday with high pressure following for early next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for OHZ003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.