Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241110 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 710 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly move east of the area today and Friday. A warm front will move north of the area by Saturday and temperatures will warm as the flow comes around from the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Made a few minor adjustments to the hourly forecast temperatures this morning otherwise no changes to the forecast for the early morning update. Original NEAR TERM Discussion... Aside from a swath of mainly thin cirrus which has been centered from Toledo to Wheeling early this morning, not much else going on as high pressure was almost overhead. The high will move slowly east leaving behind an east flow veering southeast at the surface. The weak gradient will promote lake breezes off Lake Erie this afternoon but cooling will be limited to within several miles of the lake shore. highs elsewhere a few degrees above yesterday, mainly around 80/lower 80s. There will still be some decent radiational cooling tonight as winds will be light and dew points relatively low but most areas will tack on a few degrees from last night with lows in the 50s. The surface high will be along the East Coast come Friday and the models have been pretty consistent in bringing a plume of deeper moisture from the southeast states and up the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. No real trigger I can find for showers other than the daytime instability and will have pops around 10 from Youngstown to Mount Vernon with mostly clear skies elsewhere. With the ridge aloft overhead on Friday we should be able to squeeze every degree out of the highs temps, mainly in the lower and mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A seasonably warm and moist airmass will build northward into the region this weekend, with diurnally driven showers and storms the expected flavor of the weekend. Dry conditions are expected Friday night, but by Saturday, have continued to ramp up pops to peak in the afternoon/evening, with lulls in the morning hours. Coverage should be fairly scattered, so have kept pops throughout this period in the mid/high chance range. No big changes to temperatures through the period, with highs generally in the low to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Still favoring the slight warmer MOS guidance vs. raw model guidance for highs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front will sag southward through the area Monday into Tuesday as high pressure build across central Ontario, moving into New England by Wednesday. The boundary will stall out near or just south of the region and become rather diffuse by Tuesday. Continued with precip chances Monday, with only slight chance pops across the south on Tuesday. With the washed out boundary in the area Wednesday, have continued some low chance pops across the southern half of the area. After another warm day Monday, with highs in the low to upper 80s, temps will only be slightly cooler Tuesday into Wednesday behind the weak front. Highs are still expected to reach the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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A few patches of valley fog were around at sunrise but that will burn off very quickly, otherwise hardly a cloud out there. VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure overhead moves to the east coast by Friday. Winds will be light and variable trending south by tonight except for lake breeze wind shifts near Lake Erie this afternoon including KCLE and KERI. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet conditions on the lake through the period as high pressure slowly builds southeast across the region today through Thursday night. This will keep winds fairly light and variable into Friday. Southerly/southwesterly winds will increase Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves into the western and central Great Lakes, but will generally be 10 kts or less through the weekend. A weak cold front will push south across the lake late Monday into Monday night, with winds becoming northerly and light. Winds will remain out of the east Tuesday into Wednesday until the front lifts back north of the lake, with winds becoming southerly by Wednesday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...Kosarik SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Greenawalt

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