Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221947 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 347 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over southern Ohio will sag slowly southward as another area of low pressure over southern Ontario weakens through the night. An upper level trough will remain in place over the central Great Lakes through much of next week with a couple more pieces of jet energy enhancing thunderstorm chances at times. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure over southern Ohio will sag slowly southward as another area of low pressure over southern Ontario weakens through the night. Currently seeing a boundary move southward off of Lake Erie with a few showers enhancing as the boundary interacts with the higher terrain. This will dissipate early this evening but a trough rotating northwest around the main portion of the upper low will likely move some showers, maybe a thunderstorm, westward across the area through the evening. Current thinking is that this area of rain will at least decrease in coverage overnight. There will then be a diurnal increase in showers and thunderstorms on Monday with models hinting that the best chances mid afternoon into early evening across the central portion of the county warning area. The region will remain somewhat humid tonight through monday night. Lows tonight and Monday night will be near seasonal averages. A bit more sunshine Monday should allow most locations to at least touch 80 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A fairly unsettled mid week period is expected across the region, as an upper low across the Ohio/Tennessee valley fills and and upper trough lingers across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Best moisture return and light will be across the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday, although the best forcing will be just east of the forecast area. Have opted for likely pops east during the daytime hours, with peak pops during the daytime hours dropping back to chance during the night. The aforementioned trough will fill and move east away from the region Wednesday night into Thursday, however another upper trough and attendant surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest Thursday. Models differ a bit with the timing of this feature, so have kept pops in the slight chance range for the day on Thursday. Kept temps closer to previous forecast with a blend towards MOS consensus. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term begins Thursday night with models showing a cold front bisecting the area with drier air moving in from the west. Lifted index and moisture appear enough to support scattered convection east third through the overnight. This change threat looks to hang on into the morning Friday with models bringing a disturbance aloft across the lake before drying from the west. Friday afternoon through Saturday will keep the area dry as a weak high moves through the lower Ohio Valley. Low pressure and an upper disturbance follow out of the central plains Saturday night and Sunday so will ramp up pops especially Sunday and Sunday night. Highs mostly upper 70s to near 80. Lows in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... MVFR ceilings should gradually lift through the afternoon. However they should return overnight with most locations seeing MVFR conditions by sunrise. A few inland locations may see some patchy fog. KYNG and maybe KCAK may see some evening convection but timing will be difficult. There should then be a lull in the showers overnight with a slight increase around sunrise. THunder will return by Monday afternoon but just beyond the current TAF period. Winds at all locations should become northerly through the afternoon and slowly decrease. However there will be a few wind gusts that touch 20 to 25 knots, especially across NW OH. Winds on Monday will generally be light. The exception will be across NW PA where southeast winds will increase into the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR possible Monday night through Thursday. && .MARINE... Low pressure will continue to linger over the Ohio River valley while a weaker low just north of the eastern end of the lake moves westward and fills this evening. Winds out of the north at 15 kts across the western half of the lake will continue to subside through the evening, and while small craft conditions are still marginal, have continued the headline though 10 PM, although it may be cancelled early. Winds will be fairly light and variable over the lake tonight and Monday as a weakening surface trough lingers around mid lake through Monday night before dissipating. Really not expecting a significant increase in winds until at least Thursday, as southwest flow increases ahead of the cold front. The front will move across the lake sometime Thursday or Thursday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-007-009>012. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Greenawalt/Jamison is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.