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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 270137
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
937 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Looking at a continuation of the warm and humid weather pattern
through the weekend. The ridge of high pressure to our south
will strengthen Friday into the weekend. A series of storm
complexes moving on the periphery of the ridge out of the Upper
Lakes and into the area on and off through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
No changes from previous update. Cannot completely rule out a
pop up shower/thunderstorm overnight, but chances are under 15
percent. Boundary still laying across the area. Previous
discussion follows.

Cumulus field continues to grow across the area under a warm
summertime airmass. Drier air in the midlevels associated with
a weak boundary sliding east across the region with more stable
air behind it. Some cumulus clouds have developed in the still
moist/unstable air ahead of it, and eventually a few isolated
showers possible in the far southeast portions of the area. The
lake breeze convergence will support some isolated showers but
it will struggle in the drier air. Some bulk shear may lend to a
few higher gusts within any storms that do develop...but do not
expect any severe storms.

Return flow increases overnight and enough moisture advection
could support a stray shower after midnight. By morning models
show deeper moisture spreading northward to the lake, again
favoring isolated to scattered activity, mainly during peak
heating. Some of the models are aggressive with the shower
coverage, but have limited it to 20/30 POPs due to lower
confidence given the poor performance in these environments.
Some guidance continues to linger enough support for showers
continuing off and on at times through Thursday, with coverage
expected along a lake breeze. Warm high temps Thursday in the mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A dissipating boundary will be over the region through the near
term. This combined with weak upper level disturbances and a
humid airmass will be enough to generate scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. It will be tough to
pinpoint exactly where the convection will be but imagine the
lake breeze will be a big factor on Friday along with any
outflow or differential heating areas near the higher terrain.
The previous days rainfall may also be enough to create a
boundary for convection to develop along. So mesoscale
boundaries will likely drive everything with a little
enhancement at times aloft.

Temperatures will feel like summer with highs into the 80s and
lows in the mid 60s to around 70. Heat index values will likely
reach into the lower 90s for several locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
More of the same through the long term as upper level heights
rise. This increasing upper level ridging will attempt to limit
the convection Sunday into Monday. So maybe we we will be able
to knock things back to isolated coverage as we gain more
confidence in the models. Models are hinting at a slightly
stronger cold front/wind shift at some point Tuesday into
Wednesday. So expect an up tick in the coverage of the
convection as the boundary dissipates over the region. Again it
appears that mesoscale boundaries will likely drive everything
with a little enhancement at times aloft.

Temperatures remain slightly above seasonal averages through
the long term. It will remain humid so heat index values will
get to at least the middle to upper 80s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Largely VFR conditions for the next 24 hours with limited
chances/coverage of any thunderstorms. Some morning BR possible,
but likely not at any of the TAF sites. Moisture increases some
for Thursday and there is a minor shortwave to cross midday.
This may be enough to spark a few isolated/scattered
thunderstorms. Winds will be light/variable tonight and be light
southwesterly Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday through Saturday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Several weak boundaries will meander across the lake through
Saturday night. The strongest boundary likely crossing the lake
Saturday night. Winds generally remain under 15 knots away from
any of the thunderstorms. Nearshore waters will have onshore
flow tomorrow and maybe Friday but then southwest to west winds
will be common.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KEC/MM
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...MM