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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 232334
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sweeping through the region this afternoon will
push towards the east coast tonight. This will be followed by
surface high pressure which will build over the Lakes Region
tonight and continue through Thursday. A weak shortwave trough
will lift northeast from the plains on Thursday, followed by a
cold front Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With the mid evening forecast update, there were no impactful
changes made to the ongoing forecast. We updated cloud cover and
other observation trends going through the rest of the evening
and overnight.

Previous discussion...
A shortwave trough over Lake Huron will continue to lift
northeast tonight. The trailing cold front was working its way
east across the forecast area at the time of this issuance, and
is likely to be east of the area by early evening. Morning
convection helped stabilize the area inhibiting storms this
afternoon. Some moisture pooling east of I-77 could still
support some isolated showers into the afternoon, but for the
most part areas will see shallow cumulus as moisture in the mid
levels is reduced. Cooler and gusty westerly winds will move
into the area behind the front. A high pressure ridge axis
entering MI and extending into the Central Plains will usher in
drier air over the region tonight. Temperatures will start off
rather mild tonight, however as increasingly drier air moves in
and clearing skies support cooling look for lows in the low to
mid 40s. Sunny skies will dominate the weather tomorrow until
some thin cirrus moves in from the southwest. Temperatures will
be cooler with highs in the 60s. Moisture will start moving back
into the area as a deepening 500mb trough extends towards a
closed upper low in the Gulf States. The rain looks to hold off
until 09z/Thu based on the ECWMF and the GFS now as a shortwave
trough reaches the lakes region.

&&

.Short Term (Thursday through Saturday )
A weak area of low pressure will move into the forecast
area on Thursday.  This system will combine with a weak
cold front to create unsettled weather Thursday through
Thursday night.  High pressure will quickly build over the
area on Friday.  Fast flow will bring another stronger area
of low pressure towards the forecast area on Saturday.  The
warm front associated with this low will lift across the region
Saturday afternoon.  This will bring scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms to the region. A cold front will follow on
Saturday night keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A low pressure system will be exiting the region on Sunday.
Wrap around moisture from this system will be moving across the
forecast area Sunday morning. A few showers may linger over the
region Sunday morning as this system exits. High pressure will
build over the region Sunday afternoon. Another low pressure
system will approach the forecast area for the start of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Most of the TAF period, we will see VFR conditions for all TAF
locations. There will be a few hours of MVFR ceilings for far
eastern Ohio locations and NW Pennsylvania locations this
evening. Otherwise high level cirrus broken to overcast will
continue over the area late tonight through tomorrow afternoon.
Winds gusts will go away and wind speeds will relax after
sunset this evening. Winds will remain northwesterly to
northerly over the next 24 to 30 hours between 5 and 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will shift to the northwest this evening as a cold front
moves across the region. This northwest to north flow will
continue overnight. A high pressure ridge will build over the
lake on Wednesday. This will create a somewhat light and
variable flow. Local effects will likely drive the wind speeds
and directions on Wednesday. As this ridge moves to the east a
southerly flow will develop Wednesday night into Thursday as a
low pressure system develops southwest of the Great Lakes. This
low will move into the western basin of Lake Erie in the
afternoon on Thursday. This system will create variable wind
speeds and directions as it moves across the lake. Winds will
shift to a north to northwest flow towards the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Jamison
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Garnet