Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 011441 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 941 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level trough will drag a stronger frontal boundary across the region this afternoon into the evening. High pressure builds over the region on Tuesday, shifting east of the area Tuesday night. This will allow the next area of weak low pressure to track southeastward across Ontario early Wednesday. Its cold front will stall over the eastern Great Lakes into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Minor changes to the forecast so far this morning. Biggest change was to remove all mention of rain in the forecast and dry out the rest of the morning forecast. With dry air near the surface as represented by dew points in the upper teens to lower 20s, believe that it will take the incoming front and upper trough axis to generate precipitation later this afternoon and have removed PoPs for this morning. Changed precipitation across the area to snow this afternoon and tonight as incoming upper level temperatures are fairly cold and ice is expected in the clouds so snow should be the dominant p-type even with marginal surface temperatures. Outside of these items, the forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... Cooler and drier air will filter into the region through the morning. Will be interesting to see how much sunshine the region receives before the next upper level trough arrives. This potent piece of jet energy will pass overhead late this afternoon into the evening. Not all that much moisture to work with but strong frontogenetic forcing and colder air lifting water off the lake should allow for some heavier bursts of snow, especially across NW PA. Still not confident that it will stretch all that far west across Ohio but did carry slight chance POPS as war west as a line from Sandusky to Canton. Later shifts will need to monitor the strength of the squalls that may develop. Will mention this potential in the HWO across NE OH into NW PA. It will be quick moving so snowfall amounts will be light. Greatest amounts should be across NW PA with an inch or 2 possible. Highs today will be late morning into early afternoon for most locations then drop as the cold front races southeastward across the region. A few lake effect snow showers may persist across NW PA into early Tuesday morning. Overall high pressure will take control of the region and provide dry conditions through the night. It will be cold in the wake of the cold front with lows dipping into the teens. The high drifts to the Mid Atlantic Coast on Tuesday with increasing southwesterly winds. At least we should see sunshine on Tuesday which will help to get highs in the mid 30`s to mid 40`s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Nearly zonal flow will be present over the northern tier states Tuesday night. Amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the western United States through Wednesday night. The amplification of the upper level ridge to the west will result in digging upper level trough over the eastern quarter of the United States during the same time period. In the end, this will result in a surge of Arctic air that will surge south into the northeastern United States Thursday into Thursday night. The forecast area will be on the western fringes of the cold air. A fast moving clipper system will race southeast from western Canada to the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning where it will dissipate. A cold front from the low will move south across the area Wednesday. This will begin to open the door to the cold air from the north setting up for a long weekend of colder air. Fair weather will be the rule over the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday but there is the possibility for a few snow showers over the northeast snowbelt Wednesday night in the northeast snowbelt region. Flow becomes somewhat disorganized Thursday as a weak trough slips south across the area. But then, flow will become well aligned again for Thursday night to contribute to some lake effect snow shower activity. Air mass appears it will be relatively dry across the area Thursday night even though temperatures will be marginally cold enough. Will mention the slight chance for snow showers Thursday night. Otherwise, temperatures will peak out in the lower 40s east to near 50 west Wednesday after lows in the 20s. Little change in low temperatures expected Wednesday night. Highs will be in the lower 40s west to lower 30s east Thursday as cold pool slips south into the northeastern United States. A drop in low temperatures will take place Thursday night into the teens east to middle 20s west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep upper level low pressure will remain nearly stationary over Quebec through Saturday night and then begin to slowly move northeast Sunday into Monday. This will result in vast upper level trough rotating around the main low into the forecast area during the period. This will keep unsettled weather across portions of the area through this period. An upper level ridge will make an attempt to move east across the Mississippi Valley region to the western Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure will gradually build south into the central Great Lakes by Sunday morning and become somewhat nearly stationary Sunday night. Fair weather will be the general rule across the area during this period. As the cold air advection takes place and flow remains persistent from the northwest, can`t rule out some lake effect snow showers over the northeast through this forecast period. Temperatures aloft once again will marginally support lake effect snow threat through the period. Temperatures will be on the chilly side through the period as the cold pool settles south close to the local area. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Gusty westerly winds will persist through the day and shift to the northwest by the evening. Expect sustained winds in the 12 to 18 knot range with gusts around 30 knots possible. Ceilings should for the most part be MVFR but cant rule out isolated IFR, especially near the hills. A strong upper level trough will pass overhead this afternoon with some fast moving snow showers possible near and east of a line from Sandusky to Canton. However the best chances of seeing these snow showers will be across extreme NE OH into NW PA. Most locations will see ceilings lift into the afternoon but where the snow showers develop a brief period of MVFR/IFR may occur. All locations should become VFR through the late evening. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR possible with light lake effect snow Thursday through Friday. && .MARINE... Generally light flow will be expected on the lake through the period. The exception will be this afternoon as reinforcing cold front shifts southeast across the area. The eastern third of the lake will see an increase in the wind speed to 20 to 25 knots. Otherwise, variable flow across the lakes is expected until about Thursday when another cold front moves south of the area. This will set up northwest persistent flow into the end of the week. The variable flow will likely cause ice floes to shift on the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...MM MARINE...Lombardy

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