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278
FXUS61 KCLE 170752
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
352 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will influence the region through Saturday
before high pressure returns Saturday night through Monday. The
high will shift east of the area Monday night as the next system
approaches from the west.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak troughing will influence the local area today with a couple
of shortwaves lifting across the CWA this morning and again this
afternoon. Showers, currently over the western portion of the
area, will continue to spread east across the local area through
this morning before largely exiting to the east by early
afternoon. There`s a little bit of instability in place this
morning, so can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder within more
convective showers. Instability increases during peak diurnal
heating this afternoon and there will be plenty of moisture in
place so scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop this
afternoon before diminishing this evening. While showers will be
progressive this morning, unseasonably high PWATs in addition to
very weak steering flow will could result in slow-moving
showers/storms and potential for locally heavy rainfall. With
that being said, the scattered nature of precipitation will keep
the flash flooding potential relatively low. The severe weather
threat is also low given weak shear.

Patchy fog will likely develop tonight due to residual low level
moisture and light and variable surface winds; moisture from
today`s precipitation will likely add additional moisture that
could lead to patchy dense fog.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday as weak
low pressure meanders into the Ohio Valley. PoPs should largely
be influenced by terrain, so the highest chance PoPs are largely
confined to the southern half of the CWA. Similar to today,
slow-moving showers/storms are possible due to high PWAT values
and weak steering flow.

Highs will be in the 70s today with the warmest temps in the
upper 70s expected near the I-75 corridor and lower 70s more
likely across NE OH and NW PA. Tonight`s lows will fall into the
upper 50s to lower 60s with Saturday`s maximum temps climbing
into the mid to upper 70s (NE OH/NW PA) to lower 80s (NW OH).
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The short term forecast period for much of the weekend into Monday
will be quiet. An upper ridge will build into the eastern CONUS with
a trough being subverted south into the Southeast United States. The
ridge across the region will allow for high pressure to build front
the northeast and hold firm across the area through Monday. The
surface high will move east on Monday and allow for a warm front to
lift north across the region. A shortwave will try to ripple through
the upper trough on Monday night, but this energy may hit a wall
with the ridge and trends are drier for Monday night. Temperatures
will be above normal for the 3rd weekend of May, as 80s are becoming
increasingly favored. Mid 80s will be favored by Monday with the
warm front through the area.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The dry pattern with the upper ridge across the region will
breakdown for the middle of next week. However, the trends for this
pattern evolution continue to be slower with the wettest day landing
firmly on Wednesday for now. A deep upper trough will enter the
central US on Tuesday and progress east with several waves through
the week. One wave will start to break down the ridge on Tuesday and
nudge it eastward with the main wave entering on Wednesday with the
main trough axis crossing the region by Wednesday night. Have PoPs
increasing through the period with the highest PoPs on Wednesday.
The PoPs on Tuesday may be a bit high as the first wave may not do
much for generating convection in the forecast area. A more
progressive region will set up for the end of the week and have
residual chance PoPs through the end of the period. All in all,
temperatures will be above normal for any time period ahead of the
trough axis, or Tuesday and Wednesday for now. Temperatures will
return toward normal for the end of the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Showers will move east across the area during the first half of
the TAF period. Ceilings and visibilities will start off as VFR
before dropping to MVFR within a couple of hours of the onset of
the showers. A few guidance members are trending towards more
pessimistic IFR ceilings this morning into this afternoon, but
would like to see how upstream ceilings trend over the next few
hours before considering adding IFR conditions to the TAFs.
There may be some embedded thunder within heavier showers this
morning, but as of now the best chance will be at KFDY/KMFD. The
majority of the rain should exit to the east by late morning or
early afternoon, but scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will likely persist primarily south a line from
KFDY to KYNG through early this evening. Ceilings should
gradually rise to VFR at western terminals this afternoon, but
MVFR in lower stratus and perhaps patchy fog will likely persist
at or return to eastern terminals towards the end of the TAF
period.

Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly this
morning before becoming light and variable Friday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday and again on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
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The forecast for Lake Erie through the first days of next week is
very quiet with limited weather of note. Today will likely be the
most active day on the lake with light southeast flow and a window
for showers and thunderstorms with a weak system moving through the
region. High pressure will return for Saturday and Sunday and light,
generally northeast flow will be favored across the area for the
weekend. A warm front will cross the lake for Monday and southeast
flow will return to the lake. Southerly flow will continue into
Tuesday and increase ahead of a low pressure system that will move
through the Northwest Great Lakes for the middle of the week. No
marine headlines are expected at this time.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Sefcovic