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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 111040
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into the
evening. In the wake of the cold front high pressure will begin
to build overhead from the west, becoming centered over Ohio on
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Still isolated showers across the southern CWA but they wont
last much longer. Cloud cover will gradually decrease through
the morning, then we will see how much increases with the
approach of the upper level trough.

Upper level trough and a cold front will impact the region this
afternoon. Fairly steep mid level lapse rates combined with the
cooler air lifting moisture from the lakes should be enough to
bring some convection to NE OH into NW PA. There could be some
thunder and maybe some small hail with the strongest convection.
Best chances for it to occur will be across NE OH into NW PA.
Much drier air in the wake of the front this evening will set
the stage for winds to decouple and allow the cloud cover to
decrease. Will have to consider another frost advisory for all
inland locations tonight. Will likely let later shifts issue it
with uncertainty on how fast winds will really decouple
overnight. Highs today range from the mid 40`s across NW PA to
the mid 50`s across NW OH. Lows across inland locations in the
mid 30`s, near 40 along the lakeshore.

High pressure will increase its influence on the region from
the west on Wednesday. Still may be enough troughiness aloft to
keep some clouds around but believe the region will be dry.
Highs should range from the mid 50`s to lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period appears to be quiet and will allow
for the region to recover with more seasonable temperatures. High
pressure will continue building into the region on Wednesday night
and become centered over the area on Thursday, allowing for dry
conditions through Thursday night. While the surface high will be in
place, an upper trough will move through the Great Lakes region on
Friday. This feature may try to generate showers away from the
surface high, but not a ton of confidence in showers with the
forcing aloft but subsidence and dry air closer to the surface. With
that, have a small area of slight chance PoPs on Friday.
Temperatures through the period will slowly return towards normal.
The region won`t have a good push of temperature advection to move
the thermometer any faster so upper 60s to lower 70s may not occur
until Friday at the earliest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the region on Saturday with
northwest flow aloft. As with Friday, have trouble going overboard
with PoPs given the mixed forcing mechanisms and have a similar
small area of slight chance PoPs on Saturday. The high slides east
on Sunday as the upper ridge enters the region. Southerly flow and
warmer air will attempt to enter, along with better moisture. This
time the forcing mechanics flip with a more supportive low level
environment and more subsidence aloft and will keep a slight chance
PoPs for Sunday with temperatures finally at mid-May normals. For
Monday, will maintain chance PoPs with a surface low entering from
the southwest for early next week. Trends this morning show that
rain entering the region is slowing down slightly as the upper ridge
may remain strong enough to hold things off a bit longer. Will keep
temperatures near normal for Monday as well, but can see these be
pushed up down the road if the ridge does indeed win out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions through the period expected. However there are a
few very light showers across central OH but they should not
impact any TAF sites. We then will watch an upper level trough
and its associated cold front move southward across the region
this afternoon. A few showers, maybe a thunderstorm, should
develop across NE OH into NW PA. KERI and KYNG may be the only
TAF sites impacted. However they could get also get into the
vicinity of KCLE. The only place we could see brief MVFR
conditions will be right under one of the heavier showers this
afternoon into the early evening.

Winds will be light through mid morning but will increase from
the west and northwest this afternoon. Strongest winds will
likely be from a northwest direction this afternoon and evening
with gusts around 20 knots possible. Winds slowly decrease into
the overnight but remain from the northwest.

Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across the lake this afternoon and northwest
winds will increase across the region. Winds over the eastern end of
the lake with the stronger pressure gradient may approach 20 knots
and waves will respond with a period over 4 feet. Therefore, have
issued a Small Craft Advisory for the PA nearshore waters of Lake
Erie for this afternoon through tonight. High pressure will build
into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday night, eventually becoming
centered somewhere near the lake on Thursday afternoon. Winds across
the lake will be lessen on Wednesday out of the northwest and
becoming more westerly with the approach of the high. High pressure
near and southeast of the lake for the end of the week will allow
for weak southwesterly flow. No headlines are expected from
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Sefcovic