Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 232334 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 734 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 ...00z Aviation Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... A cold front sweeping through the region this afternoon will push towards the east coast tonight. This will be followed by surface high pressure which will build over the Lakes Region tonight and continue through Thursday. A weak shortwave trough will lift northeast from the plains on Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With the mid evening forecast update, there were no impactful changes made to the ongoing forecast. We updated cloud cover and other observation trends going through the rest of the evening and overnight. Previous discussion... A shortwave trough over Lake Huron will continue to lift northeast tonight. The trailing cold front was working its way east across the forecast area at the time of this issuance, and is likely to be east of the area by early evening. Morning convection helped stabilize the area inhibiting storms this afternoon. Some moisture pooling east of I-77 could still support some isolated showers into the afternoon, but for the most part areas will see shallow cumulus as moisture in the mid levels is reduced. Cooler and gusty westerly winds will move into the area behind the front. A high pressure ridge axis entering MI and extending into the Central Plains will usher in drier air over the region tonight. Temperatures will start off rather mild tonight, however as increasingly drier air moves in and clearing skies support cooling look for lows in the low to mid 40s. Sunny skies will dominate the weather tomorrow until some thin cirrus moves in from the southwest. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 60s. Moisture will start moving back into the area as a deepening 500mb trough extends towards a closed upper low in the Gulf States. The rain looks to hold off until 09z/Thu based on the ECWMF and the GFS now as a shortwave trough reaches the lakes region. && .Short Term (Thursday through Saturday ) A weak area of low pressure will move into the forecast area on Thursday. This system will combine with a weak cold front to create unsettled weather Thursday through Thursday night. High pressure will quickly build over the area on Friday. Fast flow will bring another stronger area of low pressure towards the forecast area on Saturday. The warm front associated with this low will lift across the region Saturday afternoon. This will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. A cold front will follow on Saturday night keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A low pressure system will be exiting the region on Sunday. Wrap around moisture from this system will be moving across the forecast area Sunday morning. A few showers may linger over the region Sunday morning as this system exits. High pressure will build over the region Sunday afternoon. Another low pressure system will approach the forecast area for the start of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Most of the TAF period, we will see VFR conditions for all TAF locations. There will be a few hours of MVFR ceilings for far eastern Ohio locations and NW Pennsylvania locations this evening. Otherwise high level cirrus broken to overcast will continue over the area late tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Winds gusts will go away and wind speeds will relax after sunset this evening. Winds will remain northwesterly to northerly over the next 24 to 30 hours between 5 and 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night and Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds will shift to the northwest this evening as a cold front moves across the region. This northwest to north flow will continue overnight. A high pressure ridge will build over the lake on Wednesday. This will create a somewhat light and variable flow. Local effects will likely drive the wind speeds and directions on Wednesday. As this ridge moves to the east a southerly flow will develop Wednesday night into Thursday as a low pressure system develops southwest of the Great Lakes. This low will move into the western basin of Lake Erie in the afternoon on Thursday. This system will create variable wind speeds and directions as it moves across the lake. Winds will shift to a north to northwest flow towards the end of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jamison NEAR TERM...Griffin/Jamison SHORT TERM...Garnet LONG TERM...Garnet AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Garnet

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