Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 081947 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 347 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over Ohio this evening will shift eastward on Sunday. A warm front will lift northeastward across the region on Monday. Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes Monday night will extend a cold front across the area on Tuesday. High pressure will return to the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Afternoon cumulus will slowly dissipate through sunset. High pressure remains in control of the region tonight. This high will begin to shift eastward on Sunday with a southerly wind developing. Tonight will be the last cool and less humid night with lows in the mid 50`s to lower 60`s. Warmer on Sunday with highs in the 80`s, around 90 across NW OH. Humidity returns Sunday night with a few more clouds floating into the region. This will cause temperatures to be warmer overnight with lows in the mid 60`s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Westerly flow aloft affects our CWA as a ridge aloft exits to the east and an eastward-moving longwave trough overspreads the Great Lakes region. Multiple shortwave disturbances embedded in the longwave trough will affect our region. At the surface, a high pressure ridge exits our CWA generally to the east as a cool front approaches from the west Monday and Monday night. The clockwise, outward circulation of the ridge`s high pressure center in vicinity of the southern Appalachians will draw Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area, allowing humidity to increase in the warm sector. The cool front should drift eastward through our CWA during the predawn hours through afternoon hours of Tuesday. Behind this front, a weak surface high pressure ridge builds from the west through Tuesday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period, especially Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon in association with the approach and then passage of the cool front. Despite weak vertical wind shear, moderate to strong instability amidst moderate to strong DCAPE may allow a few pulse thunderstorms to produce wet downbursts and associated damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/early evening and again Tuesday afternoon. Monday should feature afternoon highs in the mid 80`s to lower 90`s. Monday night should have lows in the mid 60`s to lower 70`s. Tuesday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 80`s. Lows should once again reach the mid 60`s to lower 70`s Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The longwave trough aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances will advance slowly from the Great Lakes and vicinity toward the Canadian Maritimes and New England. Behind this trough, a high pressure ridge aloft should build eastward over our CWA, especially Thursday night through Saturday. However, a longwave trough should undercut the ridge as the trough`s embedded mid- to upper-level low craws eastward from the Mid Mississippi Valley Thursday night through Saturday. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging should persist over our region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours given the typical diurnal cycle in temperature and instability. Temperatures should trend near or slightly above-normal (i.e. lows in the 60`s to 70 degrees and highs in the low to mid 80`s). && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Afternoon cumulus will lift to around 4500 feet before dissipating around sunset. Expect the VFR conditions to continue through most of the night. There could be some patchy MVFR fog that develops near KCAK and KYNG but confidence too low to mention at this time. Will see some onshore flow along the lakeshore with northwest to west winds through the evening. Speeds should be 10 knots or less. Elsewhere light and variable winds will continue into tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Light and variable winds persist over Lake Erie through nightfall as a high pressure center remains over the lake. Winds become southerly to southwesterly at about 5 to 15 knots tonight through Monday evening as the high pressure center advances toward the southern Appalachians. A cool front should drift eastward across Lake Erie Tuesday morning through afternoon, causing 5 to 15 knot winds to shift from southwesterly to westerly. Light and variable winds return by Tuesday night as weak high pressure builds over Lake Erie from the west and north. Easterly to northeasterly winds of about 5 to 15 knots will accompany the building high pressure Wednesday through Thursday. Waves will likely be no larger than 1 to 3 feet through the period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...MM MARINE...Jaszka

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