Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 301934 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 334 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from the New England Coast back west over the local area through Thursday. Another ridge will build south out of Ontario, Canada Thursday night and persist through Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper level high pressure will be the dominating weather feature through the next 36 hours across the local forecast area. A ridge of high pressure extending west at the surface from the New England Coast should be relatively stationary during this period as well. Strong subsidence and return southerly flow into the area should keep a persistent warm air advection pattern in place. Expecting the gradient winds to diminish slightly this afternoon allowing lake breeze to slide just onshore near the immediate lakeshore. Land breeze develops again this evening pushing the cooler lake air back over the lake. There were a few diurnal cumulus developing over the Toledo and Findlay area but expecting this to dissipate this evening. Should see a repeat again tomorrow with the temperatures and fair weather cumulus.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Very quiet and warm weather with above normal temperatures will continue the rest of the week as a large blocking ridge of high pressure remains in control. This mid/upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Lakes, Northeast CONUS, and Mid Atlantic Thursday and gradually retrograde toward the Northern Plains Friday and Friday night. Broad surface high pressure will remain over the central Great Lakes as well, basically centered beneath the core of the mid/upper ridge. The strong and widespread subsidence will maintain clear skies through the end of the week, and 850 mb temps around 18 C will support highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Thursday and Friday. The mean low-level flow will still be easterly to southeasterly through the end of the week due to the broad surface high to the N and E, and this will lead to onshore flow in the afternoon hours due to the lake breeze influence. This should keep lakeshore areas in the mid 80s for highs, but inland areas will certainly touch 90. The dry airmass will still allow for decent cooling at night, so expect lows to fall into the upper 50s/low 60s Thursday and Friday nights.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The mid/upper ridge axis retrograding into the Northern Plains by Saturday will allow a mid/upper trough to drop into New England and the far eastern Great Lakes. The upper level energy will miss our area to the NE, but a weak backdoor cold front still looks to push into the area Saturday or Saturday night. Dew points will come up to near 60 F ahead of the front, but a lack of deep moisture and almost no forcing in our area should support a dry frontal passage, so kept the forecast dry Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will build back down from the NE Sunday with temperatures a few degrees cooler, but still a good 8 to 10 degrees above normal. The pattern may finally start to change somewhat Sunday night through Tuesday as the mid/upper ridge drifts further west toward the Rockies and a deep trough digs toward the eastern Great Lakes. 12Z deterministic guidance is suggesting a closed H5 low may drop into the eastern Great Lakes Monday or Tuesday as the trough deepens, but timing and depth of this feature is still uncertain. This will be the best chance for rain over the next 7 to 10 days, but expect coverage to still be scattered given the lack of deep moisture ahead of the associated boundary. Kept PoPs at slight chance Monday and Tuesday, mainly in the afternoons, with temperatures trending cooler.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Lake breeze is struggling to get going as southerly synoptic winds remain in control. Expecting winds to diminish slightly later this afternoon and lake breeze should push as far south as Erie but should remain out of Cleveland. Clear skies prevail across the entire area through this period. Lake will make an attempt to develop again tomorrow. Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE...
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Very quiet conditions will continue on the lake through the end of the week as high pressure remains in control. SE winds of 5-10 knots overnight and in the mornings will become NE at 10-15 knots each afternoon due to lake breeze development. This will keep waves under 2 feet all week. A weak cold front will drop across the lake from the NE Saturday or Saturday night, and this will lead to a bit stronger and more defined NE flow by late Saturday and Sunday, but winds and waves should still stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Garuckas

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