Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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260 FXUS61 KCLE 271941 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 341 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes region before a weak surface trough moves through the area on Monday. High pressure from Canada will expand back over the area for Tuesday. The remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto are expected to move north from the Gulf of Mexico region into the Great Lakes region by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... With weak high pressure and a strong cap in place, a robust cu field has developed over northern Ohio and NW PA but no rain was able to develop this afternoon. Several of the hi-res models still try to kick off some rain showers early this evening on some sort of lake boundary, but seeing that the lake breeze is struggling to make its way inland even a couple miles, I don`t foresee it generating any convection anytime tonight. Therefore have a dry forecast for tonight with clouds diminishing with the loss of diurnal heating. Fog will likely be a factor overnight with high pressure and calm winds in place. Monday is on tap to be warmer than Sunday as there will not be a thick cumulus deck to combat in the morning. A weak surface trough will make its way through the area in the afternoon but with height rises and dry air aloft and a strong cap in place, it is difficult to see any convection develop. Unless this trough can really trigger some convection, the area should be dry and sunny and temperatures will easily climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the holiday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday models show an upper ridge over Lake Michigan. At the surface a tropical low will be over Alabama with high pressure over James Bay. By afternoon the GFS shows li`s dropping to around -5 west. The nam CAPE field is noisy but does have values from around 1000 up to 2000 J/KG. Given the upper heights however will refrain from adding pops at this point. Tuesday night through Thursday however, the forecast is looking wet as the remnants from the early tropical system work north through the Ohio Valley. Tuesday night will have chance pops work into the southwest third of the area. Wednesday and Wednesday night the low will move from western TN north into southern MI. Will have likely pops roughly west two thirds and chance east third. Thursday the low continues north taking the deeper moisture with it however expect the area should start out west so will continue with likely pops. Also if a little sun does break out in the afternoon we would likely get convective so will continue likely pops through the afternoon. Highs in the mid and upper 80s Tuesday and the lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... By daybreak Friday the ECMWF has the low near James bay while the GFS is slower with the low over the Central Lakes. Either way both move trailing front through on Friday so will go with likely pops. Models diverge significantly for next weekends forecast. The ECMWF has large area of high pressure pushing south across the lakes for a dry weekend. The GFS on the other hand develops large upper low which dumbbells around the Lower Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley Saturday into Monday, for a wet weekend. For the forecast I superblended the temps. For now will keep the weekend dry. Previous forecast was based on the ECMWF so no reason to start flip flopping this far out with so much doubt. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... After a morning with fog and stratus issues, a fairly robust cu field remains in place over much of northern Ohio and NW PA with ceilings in the VFR category. This cloud deck will remain in place through the afternoon and early evening until dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies and calm winds tonight will likely allow for the atmosphere to decouple and for fog to develop across the region. Have put in at least MVFR conditions at all sites but KERI for Monday morning but can see several spots getting to IFR vsbys with a moist, summer-like environment. Fog should dissipate late Monday morning and clear skies and VFR conditions should reign on Memorial Day. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible Wednesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Light and variable flow will persist across Lake Erie tonight through Monday night. Tuesday east/northeast flow will increase to 10 to 20 knots as the gradient tightens between high pressure moving east across Ontario and low pressure moving north into the TN Vly. Northeast to east flow should get into the 15 to 20 knot range late Tuesday and early Tuesday night enough that waves may approach small craft advisory levels and will need to monitor. Winds veer to southerly Wednesday night at 15 to 20 knots however highest waves should be north of the nearshore waters. Winds continue to veer to southwest Thursday dropping to the 10 to 15 knot range. Friday models bring low pressure across the lake dragging a cold front through the area. Winds will be from the west 10 to 15 knots turning northwest by evening. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...TK

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