Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 111040 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 640 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into the evening. In the wake of the cold front high pressure will begin to build overhead from the west, becoming centered over Ohio on Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Still isolated showers across the southern CWA but they wont last much longer. Cloud cover will gradually decrease through the morning, then we will see how much increases with the approach of the upper level trough. Upper level trough and a cold front will impact the region this afternoon. Fairly steep mid level lapse rates combined with the cooler air lifting moisture from the lakes should be enough to bring some convection to NE OH into NW PA. There could be some thunder and maybe some small hail with the strongest convection. Best chances for it to occur will be across NE OH into NW PA. Much drier air in the wake of the front this evening will set the stage for winds to decouple and allow the cloud cover to decrease. Will have to consider another frost advisory for all inland locations tonight. Will likely let later shifts issue it with uncertainty on how fast winds will really decouple overnight. Highs today range from the mid 40`s across NW PA to the mid 50`s across NW OH. Lows across inland locations in the mid 30`s, near 40 along the lakeshore. High pressure will increase its influence on the region from the west on Wednesday. Still may be enough troughiness aloft to keep some clouds around but believe the region will be dry. Highs should range from the mid 50`s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period appears to be quiet and will allow for the region to recover with more seasonable temperatures. High pressure will continue building into the region on Wednesday night and become centered over the area on Thursday, allowing for dry conditions through Thursday night. While the surface high will be in place, an upper trough will move through the Great Lakes region on Friday. This feature may try to generate showers away from the surface high, but not a ton of confidence in showers with the forcing aloft but subsidence and dry air closer to the surface. With that, have a small area of slight chance PoPs on Friday. Temperatures through the period will slowly return towards normal. The region won`t have a good push of temperature advection to move the thermometer any faster so upper 60s to lower 70s may not occur until Friday at the earliest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the region on Saturday with northwest flow aloft. As with Friday, have trouble going overboard with PoPs given the mixed forcing mechanisms and have a similar small area of slight chance PoPs on Saturday. The high slides east on Sunday as the upper ridge enters the region. Southerly flow and warmer air will attempt to enter, along with better moisture. This time the forcing mechanics flip with a more supportive low level environment and more subsidence aloft and will keep a slight chance PoPs for Sunday with temperatures finally at mid-May normals. For Monday, will maintain chance PoPs with a surface low entering from the southwest for early next week. Trends this morning show that rain entering the region is slowing down slightly as the upper ridge may remain strong enough to hold things off a bit longer. Will keep temperatures near normal for Monday as well, but can see these be pushed up down the road if the ridge does indeed win out. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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VFR conditions through the period expected. However there are a few very light showers across central OH but they should not impact any TAF sites. We then will watch an upper level trough and its associated cold front move southward across the region this afternoon. A few showers, maybe a thunderstorm, should develop across NE OH into NW PA. KERI and KYNG may be the only TAF sites impacted. However they could get also get into the vicinity of KCLE. The only place we could see brief MVFR conditions will be right under one of the heavier showers this afternoon into the early evening. Winds will be light through mid morning but will increase from the west and northwest this afternoon. Strongest winds will likely be from a northwest direction this afternoon and evening with gusts around 20 knots possible. Winds slowly decrease into the overnight but remain from the northwest. Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... A cold front will move across the lake this afternoon and northwest winds will increase across the region. Winds over the eastern end of the lake with the stronger pressure gradient may approach 20 knots and waves will respond with a period over 4 feet. Therefore, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the PA nearshore waters of Lake Erie for this afternoon through tonight. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday night, eventually becoming centered somewhere near the lake on Thursday afternoon. Winds across the lake will be lessen on Wednesday out of the northwest and becoming more westerly with the approach of the high. High pressure near and southeast of the lake for the end of the week will allow for weak southwesterly flow. No headlines are expected from Wednesday through the end of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...MM MARINE...Sefcovic

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