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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 011441
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level trough will drag a stronger frontal
boundary across the region this afternoon into the evening. High
pressure builds over the region on Tuesday, shifting east of
the area Tuesday night. This will allow the next area of weak
low pressure to track southeastward across Ontario early
Wednesday. Its cold front will stall over the eastern Great
Lakes into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Minor changes to the forecast so far this morning. Biggest
change was to remove all mention of rain in the forecast and dry
out the rest of the morning forecast. With dry air near the
surface as represented by dew points in the upper teens to
lower 20s, believe that it will take the incoming front and
upper trough axis to generate precipitation later this afternoon
and have removed PoPs for this morning. Changed precipitation
across the area to snow this afternoon and tonight as incoming
upper level temperatures are fairly cold and ice is expected in
the clouds so snow should be the dominant p-type even with
marginal surface temperatures. Outside of these items, the
forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
Cooler and drier air will filter into the region through the
morning. Will be interesting to see how much sunshine the region
receives before the next upper level trough arrives. This
potent piece of jet energy will pass overhead late this
afternoon into the evening. Not all that much moisture to work
with but strong frontogenetic forcing and colder air lifting
water off the lake should allow for some heavier bursts of snow,
especially across NW PA. Still not confident that it will
stretch all that far west across Ohio but did carry slight
chance POPS as war west as a line from Sandusky to Canton. Later
shifts will need to monitor the strength of the squalls that
may develop. Will mention this potential in the HWO across NE OH
into NW PA. It will be quick moving so snowfall amounts will be
light. Greatest amounts should be across NW PA with an inch or
2 possible.

Highs today will be late morning into early afternoon for most
locations then drop as the cold front races southeastward across
the region.

A few lake effect snow showers may persist across NW PA into
early Tuesday morning. Overall high pressure will take control
of the region and provide dry conditions through the night. It
will be cold in the wake of the cold front with lows dipping
into the teens. The high drifts to the Mid Atlantic Coast on
Tuesday with increasing southwesterly winds. At least we should
see sunshine on Tuesday which will help to get highs in the mid
30`s to mid 40`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow will be present over the northern tier states
Tuesday night. Amplification of an upper level ridge will take
place over the western United States through Wednesday night.
The amplification of the upper level ridge to the west will
result in digging upper level trough over the eastern quarter of
the United States during the same time period. In the end, this
will result in a surge of Arctic air that will surge south into
the northeastern United States Thursday into Thursday night.
The forecast area will be on the western fringes of the cold
air. A fast moving clipper system will race southeast from
western Canada to the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning
where it will dissipate. A cold front from the low will move
south across the area Wednesday. This will begin to open the
door to the cold air from the north setting up for a long
weekend of colder air. Fair weather will be the rule over the
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday but there is the
possibility for a few snow showers over the northeast snowbelt
Wednesday night in the northeast snowbelt region. Flow becomes
somewhat disorganized Thursday as a weak trough slips south
across the area. But then, flow will become well aligned again
for Thursday night to contribute to some lake effect snow shower
activity. Air mass appears it will be relatively dry across the
area Thursday night even though temperatures will be marginally
cold enough. Will mention the slight chance for snow showers
Thursday night. Otherwise, temperatures will peak out in the
lower 40s east to near 50 west Wednesday after lows in the 20s.
Little change in low temperatures expected Wednesday night.
Highs will be in the lower 40s west to lower 30s east Thursday
as cold pool slips south into the northeastern United States. A
drop in low temperatures will take place Thursday night into the
teens east to middle 20s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep upper level low pressure will remain nearly stationary over
Quebec through Saturday night and then begin to slowly move
northeast Sunday into Monday. This will result in vast upper
level trough rotating around the main low into the forecast area
during the period. This will keep unsettled weather across
portions of the area through this period. An upper level ridge
will make an attempt to move east across the Mississippi Valley
region to the western Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure
will gradually build south into the central Great Lakes by
Sunday morning and become somewhat nearly stationary Sunday
night. Fair weather will be the general rule across the area
during this period. As the cold air advection takes place and
flow remains persistent from the northwest, can`t rule out some
lake effect snow showers over the northeast through this
forecast period. Temperatures aloft once again will marginally
support lake effect snow threat through the period. Temperatures
will be on the chilly side through the period as the cold pool
settles south close to the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Gusty westerly winds will persist through the day and shift to
the northwest by the evening. Expect sustained winds in the 12
to 18 knot range with gusts around 30 knots possible.

Ceilings should for the most part be MVFR but cant rule out
isolated IFR, especially near the hills. A strong upper level
trough will pass overhead this afternoon with some fast moving
snow showers possible near and east of a line from Sandusky to
Canton. However the best chances of seeing these snow showers
will be across extreme NE OH into NW PA. Most locations will see
ceilings lift into the afternoon but where the snow showers
develop a brief period of MVFR/IFR may occur.

All locations should become VFR through the late evening.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR possible with light lake effect
snow Thursday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light flow will be expected on the lake through the
period. The exception will be this afternoon as reinforcing cold
front shifts southeast across the area. The eastern third of the
lake will see an increase in the wind speed to 20 to 25 knots.
Otherwise, variable flow across the lakes is expected until about
Thursday when another cold front moves south of the area. This will
set up northwest persistent flow into the end of the week. The
variable flow will likely cause ice floes to shift on the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Lombardy