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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210925
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
425 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system moving into southern Quebec will drag a cold
front through the region on today. Arctic high pressure will
build over the eastern lakes on Thanksgiving. High pressure will
remain in control on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday begins with low pressure in southeast Ontario with a
cold front extending wsw across southern Lower MI to Chicago.
The front will continue south and by 18z should be just south
of the CWA. The airmass behind the front is fairly cold,
especially for this time of year, although the coldest air will
impact New England vs the OH Valley. Still however, do expect
lake effect snow showers to develop east of KCLE. BUFKIT
forecast soundings show the best profiles actually ahead of the
front due to the fact that there will be more synoptic moisture
in place across the region. Instability is "conditional" however
winds to veer from wsw to northwest which should be disruptive
to any long band development. For the afternoon into the
evening, winds continue to veer from wnw to north as the airmass
dries. Given the veering winds and afternoon drying, will have
roughly a 1 to 3 inch snowfall forecast for the snowbelt today
through tonight. Temps at 850mb drop to -18C overnight. Will
have chance pops at best for the snowbelt through the first half
of the night however given such dry air in the region. Thursday
high pressure will build in from the north and with dry air in
place will keep forecast dry. Highs in the mid 30s today
although afternoon temps will be dropping behind the front.
Highs Thursday from the low/mid 20s east to the lower 30s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast begins on Thanksgiving night with arctic
high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. Modest warm air
advection will slowly increase temperatures at 850mb Thursday night
into Friday but 850 mb temperatures of -8 to -18C will translate to
frigid low temperatures in the 10s and 20s. High pressure will
slowly shift east on Friday as a warm front approaches the region.
Continued warm air advection and southerly flow behind the high will
allow for temperatures to recover into the upper 30s to mid 40s on
Friday. The approaching warm front should bring rain into the region
for the first half of the weekend, but rain should hold off until
late Friday night into Saturday morning, when the upper trough makes
it into the region. Rain will be quick to move across the area on
Saturday but everyone will see rain at some point to will continue
running with categorical pops for all areas on the first half of
Saturday. The area will dry out with the passing of the upper trough
axis and will quickly taper off pops on Saturday night. Temperatures
will have vastly improved by Saturday and high temperatures may
finally hit average for the first time in a couple weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look unsettled for the
beginning of next week. The best day weather-wise appears to be on
Sunday as weak high pressure attempts to briefly build into the
forecast area. However, a deep trough will dig across the central
CONUS supporting a deepening surface low over the southern Plains,
which could impact the region as early as Sunday night. This system
could pack a punch and remain over the region over a couple days.
The general thought for the forecast is that the initial p-type for
this low will be rain on Sunday night into Monday before the system
draws some cold air back into the region for Monday night into
Tuesday. Monday night and beyond can get messy with rain, snow, and
mixed precipitation all plausible at this point, and this system
will be something worth watching over the holiday weekend as folks
return to normal schedules next week. Temperatures will start near
normal on Sunday before getting colder each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
CIGS mostly VFR to start however satellite does show an
expanding lower deck affecting MFD and CAK than should reach YNG
and ERI by about 08Z. To the west, moisture associated with an
advancing cold front will move into the west/northwest quickly
and overspread the area through the night. CIGS at first are
around 8kft however do expect cigs to drop to MVFR by 09Z-11Z.
After 18z drier air moves in from the north lifting CIGS back
ti VFR. Only issue of course is developing lake effect snow.
Believe it will affect primarily Erie however do anticipate snow
showers and CAK YNG and CLE as well with MVFR/IFR possibly in
any snow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night CLE ERI YNG CAK in
lake effect snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a quick low water advisory for the western end of Lake
Erie until 10 AM this morning. The water level at Toledo made
it down to the critical mark, but will likely only be down for a
couple hours as flow will shift to the northwest fairly quickly
behind the front later this morning.

Previous Discussion...
Strong winds and high waves are expected to continue on the
lake today, as an arctic cold front will cross the lake. Once
cold front crosses the lake, winds will diminish a bit and veer
around to the northwest, allowing waves to subside tonight. Will
continue the small craft advisory for all of Lake Erie with the
west end going through late this afternoon and the eastern end
going through tonight. The northwest flow behind the front
should help the western basin go below SCA criteria before the
east. High pressure will build behind the cold front on Thursday
and winds should settle to light and variable and waves will
subside on the lake. A warm front will approach the lake for the
weekend bringing southerly flow to the area. Another low
pressure system will reach the area Sunday night and impact the
eastern Lakes for the beginning of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Sefcovic