Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 210925 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 425 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system moving into southern Quebec will drag a cold front through the region on today. Arctic high pressure will build over the eastern lakes on Thanksgiving. High pressure will remain in control on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wednesday begins with low pressure in southeast Ontario with a cold front extending wsw across southern Lower MI to Chicago. The front will continue south and by 18z should be just south of the CWA. The airmass behind the front is fairly cold, especially for this time of year, although the coldest air will impact New England vs the OH Valley. Still however, do expect lake effect snow showers to develop east of KCLE. BUFKIT forecast soundings show the best profiles actually ahead of the front due to the fact that there will be more synoptic moisture in place across the region. Instability is "conditional" however winds to veer from wsw to northwest which should be disruptive to any long band development. For the afternoon into the evening, winds continue to veer from wnw to north as the airmass dries. Given the veering winds and afternoon drying, will have roughly a 1 to 3 inch snowfall forecast for the snowbelt today through tonight. Temps at 850mb drop to -18C overnight. Will have chance pops at best for the snowbelt through the first half of the night however given such dry air in the region. Thursday high pressure will build in from the north and with dry air in place will keep forecast dry. Highs in the mid 30s today although afternoon temps will be dropping behind the front. Highs Thursday from the low/mid 20s east to the lower 30s west. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast begins on Thanksgiving night with arctic high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. Modest warm air advection will slowly increase temperatures at 850mb Thursday night into Friday but 850 mb temperatures of -8 to -18C will translate to frigid low temperatures in the 10s and 20s. High pressure will slowly shift east on Friday as a warm front approaches the region. Continued warm air advection and southerly flow behind the high will allow for temperatures to recover into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Friday. The approaching warm front should bring rain into the region for the first half of the weekend, but rain should hold off until late Friday night into Saturday morning, when the upper trough makes it into the region. Rain will be quick to move across the area on Saturday but everyone will see rain at some point to will continue running with categorical pops for all areas on the first half of Saturday. The area will dry out with the passing of the upper trough axis and will quickly taper off pops on Saturday night. Temperatures will have vastly improved by Saturday and high temperatures may finally hit average for the first time in a couple weeks. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term forecast period continues to look unsettled for the beginning of next week. The best day weather-wise appears to be on Sunday as weak high pressure attempts to briefly build into the forecast area. However, a deep trough will dig across the central CONUS supporting a deepening surface low over the southern Plains, which could impact the region as early as Sunday night. This system could pack a punch and remain over the region over a couple days. The general thought for the forecast is that the initial p-type for this low will be rain on Sunday night into Monday before the system draws some cold air back into the region for Monday night into Tuesday. Monday night and beyond can get messy with rain, snow, and mixed precipitation all plausible at this point, and this system will be something worth watching over the holiday weekend as folks return to normal schedules next week. Temperatures will start near normal on Sunday before getting colder each day. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... CIGS mostly VFR to start however satellite does show an expanding lower deck affecting MFD and CAK than should reach YNG and ERI by about 08Z. To the west, moisture associated with an advancing cold front will move into the west/northwest quickly and overspread the area through the night. CIGS at first are around 8kft however do expect cigs to drop to MVFR by 09Z-11Z. After 18z drier air moves in from the north lifting CIGS back ti VFR. Only issue of course is developing lake effect snow. Believe it will affect primarily Erie however do anticipate snow showers and CAK YNG and CLE as well with MVFR/IFR possibly in any snow. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night CLE ERI YNG CAK in lake effect snow. && .MARINE... Issued a quick low water advisory for the western end of Lake Erie until 10 AM this morning. The water level at Toledo made it down to the critical mark, but will likely only be down for a couple hours as flow will shift to the northwest fairly quickly behind the front later this morning. Previous Discussion... Strong winds and high waves are expected to continue on the lake today, as an arctic cold front will cross the lake. Once cold front crosses the lake, winds will diminish a bit and veer around to the northwest, allowing waves to subside tonight. Will continue the small craft advisory for all of Lake Erie with the west end going through late this afternoon and the eastern end going through tonight. The northwest flow behind the front should help the western basin go below SCA criteria before the east. High pressure will build behind the cold front on Thursday and winds should settle to light and variable and waves will subside on the lake. A warm front will approach the lake for the weekend bringing southerly flow to the area. Another low pressure system will reach the area Sunday night and impact the eastern Lakes for the beginning of next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144- 162>164. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ145>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...TK MARINE...Sefcovic

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