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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281810
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
210 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the area today and become
nearly stationary until this evening as a strong low pressure
system moves into the western Great Lakes. A cold front will
push east across the area Sunday morning. The low pressure
system will move northeast toward Quebec Sunday night and allow
a trough to rotate southeast across the area. A ridge of high
pressure will build east across the local area Monday night into
Tuesday and shift east Wednesday. A low pressure system will
move east into the central Great Lakes Thursday and east of the
area by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Convection has been active across the area so far today with
numerous reports of hail, many up to golf ball size, along the
elevated warm front. This has been occurring on the north side
of a surface wave sliding east across the area. We have also had
additional heavy rain of 0.5 to 1.0" of rain on top of areas
that received up to an inch of rain in the last 24 hours.
Cancelled portions of the Flood Watch across western and central
Ohio and expanded the Watch farther north to include generally
our 2 northern tiers of counties where the heaviest rain has
occurred. This area is expected to see additional rainfall
overnight and storms may train in advance of the surface warm
front, leading to a threat of flash flooding.

In addition, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued as as
the actual warm front lifts north into the area through 7 PM.
Once storms exit NE Ohio, we may see a break in the more robust
convection given considerable cloud cover but eventually
expecting the more unstable airmass to lift north, renewing the
threat of severe storms into this evening. This activity will
likely be surfaced based adding a wind and to a lesser extent
tornado threat.

Previous Discussion...

A potent upper level low pressure system will move east-
northeast out of the central Plains states to the central Great
Lakes by Sunday. This feature will result in a deep surface low
pressure that will deepen as it moves northeast into the central
Great Lakes region Sunday. A warm front ahead of the low
pressure system will move north across the area today and become
nearly stationary until this evening. The front has been and
will be the focusing mechanism for showers and even some strong
thunderstorms today and tonight. Latest radar showed some
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms moving east across the
area at midnight. However, as the early morning progressed, over
the last few hours, convection began to develop over Indiana
and Illinois an is headed toward our forecast area. The more
impressive air mass is south of the warm front where
temperatures were still in the 60s and lower 70s with dewpoint
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. This air mass will lift
north into the area by this evening along with some hodographs
indicating fairly good shear across the area. As destabilization
occurs, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
across the area this evening. LCL heights are expected to be
rather low and with shear profile, can`t rule out a tornado
threat as well. Would not be surprised as updates come out for
severe weather threat that local area may be adjusted with an
increased threat for severe thunderstorms. So stay tuned.

Warm front lifts north across the area today and after becoming
stationary will lift north of the area tonight. The front will
aid in warming temperatures across the area today well into the
60s. Temperatures will hover in the 60s for much of the area
tonight for overnight lows and then climb even higher possibly
touching 70 on Sunday in the warm sector. Some of the guidance
is suggesting temperatures slightly higher than currently
forecast but with rain and multi layer clouds, will hold
temperatures down slightly.

Cold front moves east of the area Sunday and this will allow a
surface trough from the low pressure system to rotate into the
local area. Drier air will move in behind the front and this
will reduce the threat for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A vertically stacked upper level trough and strong surface low
pressure system will be move across the Great Lakes region into
southern Ontario Sunday night. Blustery conditions will continue
Sunday night with southwesterly to westerly winds between 15 to 25
mph and occasional gusts up to 35 mph. Cloudy skies will remain
with occasional scattered showers late Sunday night into Monday on
the backside of the exiting storm system. As the flow becomes more
northwesterly, colder air aloft at 850 mb will develop instability
with moisture from the Great Lakes causing lake effect clouds and
rain showers on Monday lingering into Monday night.  The overall
surface flow weakens by Tuesday with high pressure nosing down from
north of the Great Lakes region. At this time, it looks like the
clouds will hang on through the short term period and beyond into
the long term period. An extended period of clouds, gloomy skies
will be around for much of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next upper and mid level wave will move across the lower Ohio
Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional rain showers will
move across the area during the middle of the week. The overall
weather pattern continues to look unsettled with a large upper level
trough develop over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley late next
week. A series of disturbances will rotate through the region with
clouds and period of rain showers. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side and slightly below average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Showers and thunderstorms have been moving east across the area
as a wave of low pressure slides east overhead. Thunderstorms
have been producing frequent lightning, heavy rain, and hail but
the stronger storms will exit to the east through 20Z.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the
area this afternoon through this evening as the surface based
warm front moves north ahead of a stronger low pressure system
over Iowa. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to produce
heavy rain with the potential for severe wind gusts this evening
and again overnight as the cold front arrives from the west.

Much of northern Ohio is seeing low IFR conditions behind this
wave with ceilings likely going to lower to IFR at CAK/YNG over
the next 2 hours. Eventually ceilings will improve to
potentially VFR as the warm front lifts north overnight with
pockets of MVFR/IFR in heavy showers. VFR likely behind the cold
front. Winds will be north to northeasterly until the warm front
arrives with a wind shift to the south this evening. Southwest
winds will become strong with the passage of the cold front
early Sunday with winds gusting to 35-45 knots.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible through Sunday in
intermittent periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front is slowly moving northward across Ohio today with a
easterly flow increasing over the lake this morning. Easterly winds
will be 15 to 20 knots today on the lake with slightly higher waves
in the open waters. Will continue to monitor for any piling of water
on the western basin due to the longer time period of the easterly
flow for any minor lakeshore flooding today. The warm front will
briefly move across the lake this evening with a gusty southerly to
southwester flow 15 to 20 knots. A strong cold front will move
across the lake Sunday morning with strong gusty southwest winds
increasing 20 to 30 knot over the lake with gusts up to 45 possible.
This will likely be a higher end Small Craft Advisory but if the
winds appear to be any stronger than forecast, we could be
approaching some Gales on the lake Sunday. This will be something to
watch closely. An extended SCA conditions will lake Sunday night
into Monday. Gusty winds become more westerly by Monday morning and
will slowly relax late on Monday 10 to 15 knots. Weak high pressure
moves in by Monday night with a light northerly flow 5 to 10 knots.
But low pressure developing south of the lake Tuesday will develop
gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 20 knots again.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>014-
     018>023-089.
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC/Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Griffin