Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 290220 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1020 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift slightly to the east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to move through the area. High pressure will remain across the region through at least Tuesday. A system will move through the northern United States early next week and a front will approach the area for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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930 pm update... There were no adjustments made for this late evening near term forecast update. The ongoing forecast remains on track with quiet and pleasant weather thanks to high pressure across the region. Previous discussion... With the area encompassed by surface high pressure and the backside of an upper trough, all rain has cleared the region and clouds continue to break up across the area. With a sizable pocket of moisture around 4000 ft and diurnal heating to help support cumulus development, a mix of partly cloudy and mostly cloud conditions will continue through the early evening. High pressure becomes more dominant tonight and low level moisture starts to move out so cloud cover will decrease quickly and temperatures will fall with the diurnal cycle, likely lower than this morning`s highs in several areas. A dry warm front will pass tonight and an upper ridge begins to strengthen over the region on Sunday and temperatures will start their warming trend for the start of next week. High temperatures will rise into the 80s for most on Sunday. With the region in the warm sector, some mixing should take place and southerly winds will be favored across the region. Some wind gusts to 25 mph are possible in Northwest and North Central Ohio. Low temperatures on Sunday night will remain elevated in the 60s with continued warming across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level ridging continues to encompass the eastern third of the CONUS with the anticyclonic circulation centered over the central Appalachians through the short term period. Large scale subsidence and dry air associated with this ridge will result in mostly sunny skies. Locally, 500mb thicknesses are generally around 586-588 dm with 850 mb temperatures around 15-18C. Boundary-layer mixing with daytime heating with result in hot temperatures Monday and Tuesday afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s on Monday. Slightly higher 850mb temperatures on Tuesday will result in slightly higher temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Large lake-land temperature difference will be favorable for lake breeze development though surface winds of 10-15 knots out of the south and southwest may inhibit inland progression of that lake breeze, especially for areas west of Cleveland in north-central to northwest Ohio. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Wednesday, a cold front extended from a surface low located near Georgian Bay will move southeast across the area. There is some uncertainty on the timing of this front but at this point it should cross the area anytime between Wednesday morning and late Wednesday evening. Ahead of this front, dew points in the mid to upper 60s will contribute to MUCAPE of around 1500 J/kg. The cap that was present the previous several days will erode with synoptic scale lift for ascent, leaving near zero MLCIN by early afternoon. Strong forcing with the cold front and uncapped instability should result in a line of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front on Wednesday. Deep layer shear vector nearly parallel to the cold front should result in upscale linear growth and 30 knots 0-6 km bulk wind difference should result in at least a marginal chance for organized severe convection. The timing of the cold front will largely determine convection and severe weather chances as it will need to come through during the afternoon/evening to allow for day-time heating to sufficiently destabilize the atmosphere. Some model guidance has an upper-level trough moving across the area on Thursday or Thursday night with an associated surface low moving across the Ohio Valley, resulting in rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms across the area. However, other model guidance does not have these features with no QPF. Ended up going with the ensemble mean and only chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night until model consensus can converge on a better solution. Most model guidance has high pressure building in, keeping the area rain-free on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period and continue through the Memorial Day holiday. High pressure is bringing fair weather with very nice flying conditions. We will have scattered high level cirrus from time to time as well as some diurnally driven scattered fair weather cumulus return during Sunday afternoon around 4K or 5K feet. The scattered CU should have any impact to aviation. Winds will remain generally on the light side tonight becoming south around 5 knots. Winds will increase slightly between 8 and 11 knots late on Sunday with a few gusts up to 20 knots for FDY and TOL possible during the afternoon hours. We did not put a lake breeze wind shift in the TAF for ERI Sunday afternoon but it could be possible and may be added with a future TAF update. Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon and evening in showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure resides over the mid-Atlantic region this afternoon, making very little progress through midweek. Weak south to southwest winds persist on Lake Erie through Wednesday as a result. Lake breeze development due to a large lake-land temperature difference could lead to onshore flow in the Lake Erie nearshore waters despite the environmental southerly winds. A cold front moves south across the lake on Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Saunders

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