Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 211138 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 638 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will be across the region today. The next system tracking from the central Plains will move across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring a wintry mix followed by rain showers and a transition back to snow for the local area. Low pressure for the end of the week that will bring temperatures well below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Only change was do add some early morning flurries to northwest PA. Media report of some fine precip falling. Otherwise no other changes with this early morning update. Previous discussion follows. Remainder of the Winter Storm Warning has expired. Continuous lake effect snow showers, albeit much lighter, have continued all night across the southern and eastern suburbs of Cleveland and eastward toward Geneva. Overnight snowfall reports have been of upwards of 3 new inches of snow. The band that has wobbled on either side of Geneva and across northeast Trumbull county is beginning to lose its connection with Lake Huron. Still expect the light snow showers to continue across the CLE metro area and northeast OH through the morning hours. Caution will still be needed on area roadways. With time today, shear will begin to break up the bands of snow and the ridge will put an end to the snow. Additional dustings to locally 2 or 3 more fluffy inches possible. Wind chill readings are coming in at between -10 and -20 degrees and the Wind Chill Advisory remains through Noon when all should be `warmer` than the -10 threshold. Winds will slowly diminish throughout the day. Outside of the lake effect clouds, skies will be clear. Temperatures will recover just the upper single digits and lower teens. A wind chill advisory is not anticipated for tonight. An early drop in temperatures, many below zero, will be followed by a slow rise across the west/steading temperatures across the east. Increasing cloud cover and the beginning of a surge of warm air advection will halt the drop. Winds will also be lighter at the coldest part of the night. Precip will hold off until after the daytime Tuesday. A slow, but steady warming trend will bring late day highs to the upper 20s and close to the freezing mark Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An active midweek period is expected with precip type transitions and temperature fluctuations. The main focus will be low pressure moving into the central Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning, followed by a cold frontal passage later Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will attempt to build across the region Thursday into Thursday night. The latest model runs have some noticeable differences with the timing/speed and strength of the low moving into the region and the timing of the frontal passage. Given the uncertainty with the model solutions, kept the forecast fairly close to its previous iteration, with the highest pops (categorical) from 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday. A wintry mix is possible at the onset of precip early Wednesday morning, but this will transition to mainly rain for much of the late morning/early afternoon across the area. Behind the front, colder air will move into the area allowing for a transition back to snow Wednesday afternoon/evening, with a transition to all snow, or possibly freezing drizzle with model sounding showing little ice in the clouds, after 06Z Thursday. There is also some uncertainty with the exit of the front east out of the area, as a southern stream low tracks northward along the Atlantic coast, helping to anchor the front west of the Appalachians into Thursday. Have opted for chance pops across the east Thursday before ridging briefly builds into the area. Precip chances increase Thursday night as another arctic front barrels toward the area, however timing/forcing and moisture differences lend to lower confidence in finer details at this point, so will opt for blanket chance pops Thursday night. A non-diurnal temperature trend is expected Tuesday night through midday Wednesday ahead of the front, with temps rising through the 30s Tuesday night into the mid 40s Wednesday. Some guidance suggests temps could rise in the upper 40s, but will remain conservative given model differences and deep snowpack across the local area. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with lows dropping into the teens Thursday night with the arctic frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period will be dominated by significant troughing across the entire eastern CONUS, with negative height/temp anomalies. Predominantly northwest flow will put the region in the crosshairs for a clipper system over the weekend, although model solutions are all over the place with timing/strength. It looks like the best timeframe for widespread snow will be sometime Saturday or Saturday night, with lake effect snow outside of this timeframe. Have generally went with chance pops for the period, with highs generally in the upper teens to low 20s and lows in the single digits. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Light lake effect and flurries remain near CLE/CAK and dotted across northeast OH/NW PA. Trend for the day is for this to weaken further and end this evening. The lake cloud cover is MVFR and will remain that way until lifting late this afternoon. Snow showers bring occasional IFR vsby. Northwest winds still with minor gusts across northeast OH/nw PA will relax and back to the west and finally south-southeast by Tuesday morning. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night into Friday. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to subside over the lake today as high pressure builds across the region, but will keep the small craft advisory and heavy freezing spray warning east of the Islands through mid morning with some higher winds/waves out there early this morning. Satellite images indicate widespread ice formation west of the Island, with the ice extending eastward from Point Pelee south to Huron. Conditions will be optimal for continued ice growth over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase out of the south on Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of a cold front, becoming westerly then northwesterly Wednesday night into Thursday. An arctic front will cross the lake Thursday night through Friday, with winds increasing out of the northwest. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ144>149-164>169. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ144>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Greenawalt

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