Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 260516 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 116 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure extending west into the Ohio Valley from the Mid Atlantic Coast will slowly weaken tonight and into Saturday as low pressure slowly drops into the western Great Lakes. Saturday afternoon a weak disturbance aloft will move through the area. Sunday the disturbance will move east as high pressure aloft builds in from the southwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Made some updates to temperatures and cloud cover as convection to the west continues to spill some high level cirrus into the forecast area. Otherwise, no other significant changes with this update. Previous...high pressure extending west from the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to keep skies clear through the evening and early tonight. A disturbance in the upper midwest will track east overnight, likely bringing in mid and upper level broken ceilings by morning across the west. Expecting more low level moisture in place on Saturday and as the upper level disturbance moves closer am concerned about the potential for afternoon/evening convection. Models indicate li`s -3 to -5 although best instabilities still remain to our west and south through the afternoon. Still, will continue with chance pops. Will begin in the west during the morning and expand across the entire area for the afternoon. Saturday evening the best chances will be east as drier air moves into the west. Will taper to slight chance extreme east/southeast after midnight. Lows in the low to mid 60s. Highs Saturday low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A surface trough passing through the area on Saturday night will clear much of the area out for Sunday. A drier airmass with less cloud cover will allow for temperatures to soar well above normal. Therefore, have continued the trend with temperatures higher than guidance for Sunday. Could see an isolated shower/storm that would be diurnally driven but lack of forcing will make it isolated at best. Another front will push through the area Sunday night and stall just south of the area, bringing an even drier airmass into the region for Monday, allowing for Monday to be the warmest day of the holiday weekend. With ridging aloft and a tropical system cutting off moisture to the south, difficult to see any convection developing for Monday or Tuesday and will go with a dry forecast. Increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system will make Tuesday somewhat cooler than Monday but will still push the temperature forecast above guidance as there is no reason why mid 80s aren`t a possibility. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Plenty of weather to watch for the long term over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The extended guidance depicts an upper trough over the northern Plains by Tuesday morning with Subtropical Storm Alberto over the Gulf coast region. The extended models differ greatly on the strength of the trough and tropical system and therefore differ on what will impact the weather for our region. The GFS solution keeps the remnant tropical system to the south and east of our area and in turn keeps the upper trough and surface low from the plains further north into the northern lakes. This would give our area some wet weather at some point but any weather would be mostly disorganized. The ECMWF solution has a weaker tropical system that would be more easily absorbed into the upper level flow. This would bring the remnant system over the region and plenty of rain to deal with. At this time, will go with a blended solution of guidance but will need to monitor for what will probably be a wet long term forecast period. Temperatures will fall back closer to normal during the long term, but perhaps still a couple degrees warmer than the seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... High level cirrus continues to spread east toward the local area at this time well in advance of convection west of the area. Expecting an area of showers and thunderstorms to slide east across mainly the southern two thirds of the local area today in response to vigorous shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity maximum. Northern portions may escape convective activity as lake breeze develops and keeps activity to the south. Upper level feature will move east of the area this evening and reduce threat for precipitation. Keeping visibility and ceilings VFR through the forecast period. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... Generally a pretty good weekend for marine activities on the shores of Lake Erie. High pressure over the area will persist tonight and into Saturday allowing for light southerly winds. A surface trough will move across the lake on Saturday night bringing a chance of showers and storms for Saturday. However, once this trough clears, benign weather will continue for the next several days. A weak front will cross the lake Sunday night into Monday, allowing winds to be light and variable as high pressure settles in north of the region. Waves will be 1 to 2 feet through much of the forecast period. No marine headlines are expected at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Sefcovic

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