Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231741 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 141 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the western Great Lakes will move across the area today through Thursday and then off the east coast on Friday. A weak warm front will develop over the midwest and move to the lower Great Lakes this weekend and become nearly stationary. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Stratus has cleared giving way to clear skies for the afternoon. Original NEAR TERM Discussion... Lingering stratocumulus and stratus should dissipate or transition to fair weather cumulus pretty quickly this morning as mixing and subsidence increases - model soundings show it to be quite dry aloft. High temperatures today will likely be a few degrees above normal except for a cool north breeze off Lake Erie. Ridging will increase aloft tonight and Thursday and the surface high will slide east of the area on Thursday. Temperatures should drop nicely tonight with prime radiational cooling conditions. The ENE flow on Thursday may keep temps in check especially near the Lake Erie lake shore but we should be able to see upper 70s and lower 80s in most areas with essentially no clouds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A quiet end to the week will give way to precip chances this weekend, as high pressure centered off the mid Atlantic coast will promote return flow into the region. Dry conditions are expected Thursday night through Friday night, however precip chances will increase Saturday as a warm front will lift north through the area as low pressure tracks east into the western Great Lakes. Relatively unstable conditions by Saturday afternoon will promote scattered shower/t-storm activity, mainly diurnally driven, through the day on Sunday. Have handled this with chance pops through this period, until a weak cold front moves east of the area by Sunday night as the low tracks into the eastern Great Lakes. There is some uncertainty with the timing of this system due to model differences, but confident enough in at least chance pops with the region in the warm sector. Temperatures will be above normal through the period. Have went a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast for highs Friday and Saturday, favoring warmer MOS guidance. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Temperatures Sunday are a touch cooler in the forecast, with low to mid 80s expected with scattered precip around the area. Lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 50s will warm into the 60s for the rest of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will settle just south of the region in the Monday through Tuesday timeframe as high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes. Models have a general idea on the pattern, but subtle differences in timing/location lend to a bit lower confidence on pops/temps after Sunday night. Have kept slight chance to chance pops Sunday night through Tuesday to account for the front in the area. Have kept temperatures similar to previous forecast, with above normal highs in the low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the low/mid 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
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High pressure with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies expected through the TAF cycle. The only exception is in the next couple hours near Erie, PA where IFR stratus near the lakeshore will be near or briefly impact the airport. Most sites will experience northerly winds of 10 knots or less, becoming variable overnight. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible by Sunday in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet conditions on the lake through the period as high pressure slowly builds southeast across the lake today through Thursday night. This will keep winds fairly light and variable into Friday. A warm front will lift north across the lake Friday night into Saturday as low pressure tracks into the western Great Lakes. Winds will increase out of the south by Friday, but will remain 10 kts or less through the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...KEC/Kosarik SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Greenawalt

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