Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250122 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 922 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low over the Tennessee valley will slowly track east to the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. A cold front will cross the local area early on Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Wednesday night through Thursday night before a cold front moves east across the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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No significant changes for the 930 update. Rain will continue through the overnight hours. Rain will gradually diminish from the west overnight as low pressure over Carolinas moves off shore. Rain should linger in the east as the low tracks north along the eastern seaboard tomorrow. Original discussion... Upper low currently situated over TN and KY continues to bring consistent light rain to much of the region. Rainfall rates are generally between a few hundredths of an inch an hour to around one-quarter of an inch an hour...mainly south of US 30. The short term models have been persistent with the bulk of the precipitation falling across the southern half of the region and steady rain becoming more showery this evening into the overnight hours. The upper low is forecast to shift slowly east with rain ending across the area Wednesday morning. The one exception may be the eastern half of the region...where showers may linger a few hours into Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise...below normal temperatures will persist across the region with readings generally between 5 and 15 degrees below normal for the end of April.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE MAIN THING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE WARMING INTO THE 60S. COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S, A FEW 40S ACROSS INLAND NW PA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The last of the short waves associated with the deep northeast trough aloft is progged to drop across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night. The wave is pretty far north and heights are progged to begin rising overnight as high pressure builds at the surface and will continue with a dry forecast. The best chance for any radiational cooling Saturday night may be across NW OH while the north breeze may stay up elsewhere. Lows in the 30s. A little fair weather stratocumulus could linger NE OH/NW PA on Sunday. Highs Sunday from the upper 40s NW PA to near 60 NW OH. Surface high pressure will slide east of the area Monday. The ridge aloft will continue to build. Aside from a few patches of cirrus, Monday will be sunny. Low level moisture is progged to increase by Tuesday although dew points will likely not be all that high. Some fair weather cumulus is possible Tuesday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday should warm as much as the mixing and sunshine will allow. Forecast highs Monday mostly 65 to 70, highs Tuesday well in the 70s. The wind will likely come onshore, especially east of Cleveland on Monday and perhaps Tuesday, so a little cooler there. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Rain will gradually diminish from the west after midnight as inverted trough lingers across the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. IFR conditions will spread across entire forecast area overnight. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday into at least Thursday morning. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS MAY REACH 15 KNOTS WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET WAVES TO 4 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF SO WILL LET THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT IT. THE WEATHER THEN LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Riley NEAR TERM...DJB/Riley SHORT TERM...Mullen LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Mullen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.