Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCLE 230142 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 942 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A short wave aloft will drop across the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning. High pressure from the midwest will slowly slide east across the Great Lakes through the weekend while low pressure will move from the southern plains across the Tennessee Valley by Saturday night. Warmer air (near to slightly above normal) will spread across the area early next week as the flow comes around from the southeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update: Minor updates to hourly cloud cover and temperatures. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Previous discussion... Not much left of the cloud cover. High pressure was moving east across the Midwest and Great Lakes. The remaining bands of cirrus across extreme eastern OH and PA will continue to move east this evening. The low temperature forecast will be a little lower than most of the guidance over the remaining snow pack. Pretty nice short wave/upper low dropping across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight and Friday morning. The rule of thumb in a dry environment is to forecast precip to the left of the vort center. The vort center is progged to cross the eastern third of Lake Erie. However, with a flow off the lake and marginal lake effect instability and a little synoptic upward motion, will continue to mention a small chance of a snow shower over the snowbelt Friday morning. The best chance would probably be over inland northwest PA. Elsewhere, we will probably see scattered-broken cu/stratocumulus develop, mainly over the hills of NE OH and NW PA. The clouds will likely flatten out and thin out by mid/late afternoon as subsidence increases. Mostly sunny NW OH. Given the air mass, I figure high temperatures Friday similar to Thursday except perhaps a degree or two less in the snowbelt. Cold again Friday night. Forecast lows near guidance except a few degrees colder over what remains of the snowpack.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will move to the southwest of the forecast area on Saturday. Some moisture with this system may push far enough north to bring a few snow or rain showers to counties far south of US 30 in Ohio. The current forecast has a chance of rain or snow showers in this area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The 12Z model runs appear to be drier and further south. I will maintain a small mention of precipitation for this area but trend the forecast drier. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern Sunday into Monday. A slight warming trend is expected which will bring the high temperatures to near normal values. A southwest flow and warm air advection will develop on Monday as a storm system approaches for Tuesday. Cloud cover will increase Monday night as a cold front approaches on Tuesday. Scattered showers early Tuesday will become numerous through Tuesday night as the front moves through the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An active pattern looks to set up during the long term period, although fairly low confidence in specifics of precip timing due to model differences. A slow moving cold front will push east across the region Monday night through Thursday, with a couple waves of low pressure tracking northeast along the front. The latest GFS is faster with the front, while the ECMWF/GEM is a bit slower. Right now, it looks like the best timeframe for rain showers will be the Tuesday into Tuesday night period, possibly into Wednesday, therefore will keep likely pops going. The model differences lend to lower confidence in precip Wednesday night and Thursday, so will keep pops in the low/mid chance range. Otherwise, temperatures will be more seasonable during this period, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR conditions will continue through tonight. An upper air disturbance will track across the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning. Patches of MVFR ceilings will develop across NE OH and NW PA with isolated snow showers, mainly NW PA. VFR conditions will return Friday afternoon as the ceilings rise and eventually dissipate. .Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Northwest winds will continue over the lake as high pressure builds over the region. A weak short wave will move across the eastern half of Lake Erie on Friday. This will create a brief increase in winds Friday afternoon on the eastern half of Lake Erie but should remain below small craft criteria. Winds will eventually shift to the north and then northeast on Saturday as the center of high pressure shifts to the east. A northeast to easterly flow will continue on Sunday with wind speeds increasing. A storm system will approach the lake by mid week. Winds will shift to the south on Monday and then southwest on Tuesday in advance of this system. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Mottice SHORT TERM...Garnet LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Garnet is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.