Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 261405 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1005 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. A cold front will move east across the region on Friday with a secondary cold front early Saturday. High pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley and southeast states by early next week providing a southwest flow of much warmer air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Update...Visibilities with patchy fog in NW Ohio have improved this morning, with just some lingering stratocu remaining behind. These clouds expected to clear through midday while some expansion in the cu field is expected across the southern counties as moisture near 850mb expands. Clouds in NW PA are quickly eroding but expect to see some cu linger inland as well. Original...High pressure and dry air are building in from the west but as usual, stratus has hung up across northeast OH and nwrn PA early today. An encouraging sign however is that the stratus has been quite dynamic, having expanded late evening/early in the night and now breaking up in places. Would expect this stratus to break up rather rapidly this morning with partly cloudy/mostly sunny skies expected today. Tonight a cold front will approach from the west and by 12Z friday, should be near the northwest corner of the state. To our southeast, low pressure will move from GA into the Carolinas. Expecting dry conditions with frontal moisture not yet into the area and moisture associated with the Carolina low remaining southeast of the area. Friday the main issue will be the cold front passage. Not a lot of moisture with the system so will keep pops below 50 percent. Best chance in the west from late morning into early afternoon. further east mainly afternoon into early evening. Temps a few degrees below normal but getting close...!
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave energy will dive into the base of an emerging Great Lakes/New England trough for the weekend. This will bring a compact low across the lower Great Lakes. The GFS and NAM are similar in a track across Lakes Erie and Ontario while the ECMWF tracks it further south across central OH. The area of showers is accordingly shifted. Bring 50-60 percent shower chances across the area between Friday night and Saturday. Some degree of showers may linger well into/through Saturday with the upper low overhead. Temperatures aloft cool through the day Saturday and by nightfall, it will be cold enough for any lingering precip across nw PA Saturday night to be snow showers. This system will pull highs Saturday back into the 40s. Saturday night a number of locations will see freezing temperatures. Some recovery expected across the western and southern counties Sunday as the high begins to build in from the west. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The advertised ridge to build across the southern U.S. and up to the lower Great Lakes is not forecast to be as strong as earlier suggested. Matched or went slightly warmer than guidance as has been the case with sunny days lately for Monday through Wednesday. There is one ripple in the flow across the ridge early Tuesday, but this should have little impact on sensible weather. Will continue a dry forecast through Tuesday and bring in chance PoPs for Wednesday/Wednesday night as heights begin to lower. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... High pressure and dry air will continue building into the area today. MVFR stratus off Lake Erie affecting primarily KERI KCAK and KYNG early this morning and expect it to mix out and dissipate quickly this morning. Otherwise skies are clear. Expecting some mid level cloud increase overnight east from low forecast to be in the Carolinas Friday morning. Also expect some mid/high level cloud increase west as cold front approaches towards morning, however, expect VFR through the night. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... High pressure will be overhead today and winds will be light/variable and gain an onshore component this afternoon. Winds will remain light/variable with the approach of a weakening cold front for Friday. Low pressure will round the base of the lower lakes Friday night. The gradient will increase on Saturday as the low moves across Lake Ontario. The northwest flow that results may be enough to necessitate small craft advisory conditions. This enhanced northwest flow may last into Sunday. By Monday, though, high pressure will be overhead, centered across the Ohio Valley. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KEC/TK SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...TK MARINE...Oudeman

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