Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231737 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 137 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Through mid week low pressure from over western Tennessee will drift east-northeast making it to West Virginia and eventually moving off the Mid Atlantic Coast. A cold front will drop across the Great Lakes crossing the local area on Wednesday morning. High pressure Thursday will be followed by a second cold front for the week on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... No changes to the forecast with the midday update. Previous discussion...High pressure centered northeast of the region will keep the area dry through late afternoon. Low pressure across western TN will drift toward the Ohio Valley over the next two days. The northern fringe of showers will make it to central Ohio later today as winds shift to the southwest. Areas from Mt Vernon to Marion will see showers first. The dry easterly component flow will hold it off for the rest of Ohio until tonight. Northwest PA will likely wait until Tuesday. The lake influence will be held closer to the immediate shoreline today as winds come around to the southeast. Cloud cover will steadily increase and thicken as the day wears on. Guidance temperatures clustered fairly close in the upper 60s and lower 70s and cannot disagree. Now Tuesday with showers around, these will be held back by 8 or 10 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins Tuesday night with models in decent agreement showing surface low pressure over eastern KY with a developing reflection in the Carolinas. By 12Z Wednesday the eastern low takes over as it reaches near DC. By Tuesday night, the best moisture inflow to the system should be focused east of the region however still looking at a moist system with sufficient wrap around to provide showers Tuesday night. Moisture begins to shift east Wednesday however an approaching upper trough should slow eastward progress enough to hold onto chance pops Wednesday and Wednesday night east. The new GFS however is drier Wednesday night so may be able to remove pops if trend continues on the ECMWF. Thursday and Thursday night high pressure and drier air move through. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday models bring a cold front through as an upper trough drops across the Great Lakes. This system doesn`t look very strong at this point so will keep pops in the chance category. Temps a few degrees below normal. Friday night will continue with chance pops dealing with the cold front. Saturday the GFS bring weak low pressure through the lakes while the ECMWF has it on Sunday. With disagreement, will keep pops at slight chance. Temps near to a couple degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Clouds will increase from south to north across the area this afternoon and evening as an upper low pivots east across the Tennessee valley. Rain chances will increase after 00Z across the area, with ceilings dropping to MVFR overnight across most of the TAF sites. Rain shower activity will be fairly scattered through the period, with the best window for precip after 12Z at KMFD, KCLE, KCAK and KYNG. Winds will be easterly through the period, with a few gusts this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible from Tuesday through Wednesday night. && .MARINE... No marine headlines anticipated with the period. Today, high pressure will loose it grip over the eastern lakes as it drifts off the east coast and low pressure moves from the lower Ohio Valley to the DC region. Winds will remain from the east to northeast through Tuesday and then back to north and northwest Wednesday behind a cold front. Highest winds during the period will come Wednesday with this northwest flow likely reaching about 15 knots so nearshore waves will likely reach at least 3 feet if not a bit higher. Northwest winds will subside Wednesday night and back to southwest Thursday and remain mainly southwest Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...TK

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