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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 231737
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
137 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Through mid week low pressure from over western Tennessee will
drift east-northeast making it to West Virginia and eventually
moving off the Mid Atlantic Coast. A cold front will drop
across the Great Lakes crossing the local area on Wednesday
morning. High pressure Thursday will be followed by a second
cold front for the week on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No changes to the forecast with the midday update.

Previous discussion...High pressure centered northeast of the
region will keep the area dry through late afternoon. Low
pressure across western TN will drift toward the Ohio Valley
over the next two days. The northern fringe of showers will make
it to central Ohio later today as winds shift to the southwest.
Areas from Mt Vernon to Marion will see showers first. The dry
easterly component flow will hold it off for the rest of Ohio
until tonight. Northwest PA will likely wait until Tuesday.

The lake influence will be held closer to the immediate shoreline
today as winds come around to the southeast. Cloud cover will
steadily increase and thicken as the day wears on. Guidance
temperatures clustered fairly close in the upper 60s and lower
70s and cannot disagree. Now Tuesday with showers around, these
will be held back by 8 or 10 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Tuesday night with models in decent
agreement showing surface low pressure over eastern KY with a
developing reflection in the Carolinas. By 12Z Wednesday the
eastern low takes over as it reaches near DC. By Tuesday night,
the best moisture inflow to the system should be focused east of
the region however still looking at a moist system with
sufficient wrap around to provide showers Tuesday night.
Moisture begins to shift east Wednesday however an approaching
upper trough should slow eastward progress enough to hold onto
chance pops Wednesday and Wednesday night east. The new GFS
however is drier Wednesday night so may be able to remove pops
if trend continues on the ECMWF. Thursday and Thursday night
high pressure and drier air move through.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday models bring a cold front through as an upper trough
drops across the Great Lakes. This system doesn`t look very
strong at this point so will keep pops in the chance category.
Temps a few degrees below normal. Friday night will continue
with chance pops dealing with the cold front. Saturday the GFS
bring weak low pressure through the lakes while the ECMWF has it
on Sunday. With disagreement, will keep pops at slight chance.
Temps near to a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Clouds will increase from south to north across the area this
afternoon and evening as an upper low pivots east across the
Tennessee valley. Rain chances will increase after 00Z across
the area, with ceilings dropping to MVFR overnight across most
of the TAF sites. Rain shower activity will be fairly scattered
through the period, with the best window for precip after 12Z at
KMFD, KCLE, KCAK and KYNG. Winds will be easterly through the
period, with a few gusts this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible from Tuesday through Wednesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated with the period. Today, high
pressure will loose it grip over the eastern lakes as it drifts off
the east coast and low pressure moves from the lower Ohio Valley to
the DC region. Winds will remain from the east to northeast through
Tuesday and then back to north and northwest Wednesday behind a cold
front. Highest winds during the period will come Wednesday with this
northwest flow likely reaching about 15 knots so nearshore waves
will likely reach at least 3 feet if not a bit higher. Northwest
winds will subside Wednesday night and back to southwest Thursday
and remain mainly southwest Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...TK