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058
FXUS61 KCLE 150542
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
142 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle south of the area by this evening
as high pressure builds across the area tonight and Tuesday. The
front will lift north into the area Wednesday as a warm front, and
will push north of the area by Thursday as low pressure moves
east into the Great Lakes. This low will bring a cold front south
through the area Thursday into Friday. The boundary will waver
across the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Isolated/scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will
continue to impact areas along and east of I-71 this afternoon.
This activity will gradually diminish diurnally and expect
mainly dry conditions by 00Z. Recent radar trends suggest very
short lived convection with individual cells raining out within
a 30-60 minute period, and given limited organization and lower
rainfall rates, flash flood risk is low at this time.

High pressure will build into the area tonight with clearing
skies and light winds. This may lead to fog development across
portions of the area, especially east of I-71 where rain fell
over the past 12-24 hours. Kept dense fog mention out of the
forecast at this time, however GLAMP/HREF probs for dense fog
are somewhat elevated, especially in vicinity of Youngstown
northeast to Meadville.

High pressure will keep conditions dry for most of the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with any precipitation Tuesday
expected to remain south of the area near a nearly stationary
boundary. Another day with above normal temperatures expected
Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday as a mid
level shortwave slowly moves northeast across the region,
reflected in the forecast with high likely to cat pops. This
wave will lift northeast of the local area by Wednesday night
with pops decreasing in the absence of large scale forcing,
although some lingering showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday
night.

Pops increase again by Thursday afternoon in the likely/cat
range as a potent shortwave digs east southeast into the Great
Lakes, with a surface low tracking east through the lakes
helping to push a cold front southeast into the local area.
Precip chances decrease Thursday night as the atmosphere
diurnally stabilizes. No SPC severe weather outlooks for either
day given lack of deep layer shear and low likelihood of
organized convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rather zonal pattern over the region Friday into Saturday with a
lingering boundary across the southern part of the area pushing
south by the weekend, as high pressure becomes entrenched across
the Great Lakes. A shortwave is expected to track eastward
across the area late Saturday night into Sunday, providing the
next best chances for precipitation. Canadian high pressure
attempts to regain control over the Great Lakes Sunday night
into Monday, with an amplifying ridge over the central CONUS
into next week bringing more northeast mid/upper flow across the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Temperatures may be closer to
normal over the weekend, but the building ridge may bring above
normal temps back to the area next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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VFR conditions will continue across most terminals through much
of the TAF period with the exception of this morning between
09-12Z for KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. Conditions will be adequate for
fog development across those terminals with KYNG having the
highest confidence in seeing visibilities down to 1/2 SM. Fog
should dissipate with sunrise, so expect VFR conditions after
12Z today. Additionally, there is some HZ across a few terminals
in western OH bringing visibility down a few miles, but don`t
expect it to create any problems. Ceilings will start to move
in at the end of the TAF period as precipitation moves
northward, but it will not be impactful during the period. KCLE
could start to see showers at the very end of the period
bringing down visibility to MVFR.

Winds will be light and variable across all terminals through
this period. There will be a lake breeze for KCLE and KERI
starting by 17Z today that will shift winds out of the north.
All other terminals will be mainly out of the south and
southwest during any sustained winds.

Outlook...Non-VFR will return on Wednesday and Thursday in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR chances may
persist on Friday afternoon and evening in showers and
thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portion of the
area.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds across Lake Erie are expected to be fairly light, less
than 10 knots, with waves less than 2 feet over the next few
days ahead of a low pressure system moving through at the end
of the week. A cold front will cross the region on Thursday and
winds across the lake will increase to around 15 knots out of
the southwest. Waves will build to 2-3 feet with the increased
winds. Additionally, during this timeframe, there will be
widespread thunderstorm chances which will bring the concern for
stronger wind gusts and increased waves across the lake.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23