Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 191050 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 650 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks east across Tennessee through tonight. This low will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday high pressure will build back into the area from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Only made minor tweaks to cloud cover and temperatures to reflect current trends. Previous Discussion... High pressure will ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks east across Tennessee through tonight. This low will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast Tuesday. The better chances of rain or snow arrive across the south Tuesday morning as a secondary piece of jet energy moves across the region. It will warm enough by Tuesday afternoon for the precipitation to be all rain as it attempts to drift northward toward the lakeshore. QPF amounts will be lower as you move north across the area. It appears we will see an increase in middle and high level cloud cover today into tonight. This added cloud cover and noticeable northeast wind will knock temperatures down a few degrees from yesterday. Highs will range from the middle 30s near the lakeshore to the lower 50s near and south of a line from Marion to Millersburg. Tuesday will be cooler with highs ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure over the upper Ohio valley will deepen briefly Tuesday night before shifting east towards the mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday. Models are coming into decent agreement with precip placement across the southern half of the area during this time frame. Have upped pops to likely from Findlay to Youngstown and points south Tuesday night, decreasing Wednesday morning and ending by 18Z Wednesday. The precip should quickly transition to snow Tuesday night, with general 1 to 2 inch amounts possible across the southern half of the forecast area. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday night through Thursday night as high pressure moves across the region. No major changes to temps from previous forecast, with highs in the mid to upper 30s Wednesday, perhaps a degree or two cooler than previous forecast. Highs on Thursday expected to be a touch warmer, with mid 30s to low 40s. Lows through the period will generally be in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main concern during the long term period is low pressure quickly moving east across the Ohio valley Saturday and Saturday night. Models continue to show this quick moving low and upper shortwave bringing precip to at least the southern half of the forecast area, with the GFS/ECMWF in fairly decent agreement being 6 days out, although the ECMWF is a bit further north with the precip than the GFS. Have opted for high chance/likely pops during this time period. At this point, it looks like the precip in our forecast area should fall as all snow, but at the same time the heaviest precip amounts look to be south of the area as of right now. This will need to be monitored over the next several days with the potential for headline- warranting snowfall somewhere in the region. Otherwise, high pressure will provide dry conditions Friday and Friday night and again on Sunday through Sunday night on the back side of the low. Cooler pattern will continue through the weekend with highs generally in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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VFR conditions expected to continue through this evening. Northeast winds will increase this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots possible, especially across NW OH and along the lakeshore. .Outlook...Non-VFR possible Monday night into Tuesday across southern TAF sites. MVFR possible Tuesday night through Wednesday night at most locations.
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&& .MARINE... Winds will increase out of the northeast today with a cold front just south of the lake. Winds will generally be in the 10-15 kt range today, but with northeast flow, wave will build rather quickly into the 3-5 ft range. Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the entire nearshore beginning at 10 AM, although the waves might not pick up near Erie and west of the Islands until this afternoon. As low pressure develops across the Ohio valley late tonight through Tuesday, winds will quickly ramp up into the 20-30 kt range tonight through Tuesday. Winds will slowly subside Tuesday night into Wednesday before backing more northerly and becoming light Wednesday night. High pressure will remain over the lakes Wednesday night through Friday night, with generally light northerly winds becoming variable by Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Greenawalt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.