-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
683
FXUS61 KCLE 120554
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest late Saturday and
crosses through on Sunday. Weak high pressure takes control of
the weather for Monday and Tuesday. A warm front lifts across
the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A subtle wind shift and moisture gradient near the OH/PA line
as of 3 PM has sparked a few showers/storms. This activity will
continue east and out of our area. A few showers or storms may
attempt to fire on the lake breeze between Cleveland and
Ashtabula through early evening. The remnants of a weak MCS
and surge of greater low-level moisture pushing across
Northwest OH has sparked scattered storms that are currently
pushing out of Northwest OH and into North Central OH. These
storms are expected to gradually weaken as they progress east
into a drier and slightly more stable airmass this evening,
though odds are at least some of this activity makes it across
our forecast area so carry a 20-30% POP east across the entire
forecast area through early evening. An old outflow boundary
left by the aforementioned MCS extends west from Northwest OH
and across northern IN. Isolated showers/storms may pop along
this boundary to our west and drift into Northwest OH this
evening. However, confidence is low owing to a lack of forcing
as ridging builds in aloft. Warm/humid low levels and dry mid-
levels lead to a moderate instability and DCAPE combination,
which may support a very isolated downburst risk with any
stronger cells through early evening. That said, the overall
severe weather risk is on the minimal side today with minimal
forcing and almost no deep- layer shear.

A dry night is expected tonight once this afternoon`s
convection exits and/or dissipates this evening. Lows tonight
will generally be in the low to mid 70s with dew points on the
rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday will be a hot start to the weekend with potential for
afternoon and evening convection. The day will start dry in the
open warm sector well-ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest. The airmass will not be capped and will turn moderately
unstable by the afternoon hours...so while the front will still
be off to our northwest, isolated to scattered convection will
likely initiate by early to mid-afternoon along any low-level
convergence across the local area. This can range from
differential heating/remnant outflows to hilltop convergence to
any subtle pre-frontal troughs, so it is hard to confidently say
in advance where exactly this afternoon convection will fire.
The front begins approaching Northwest Ohio Saturday evening,
with a modest increase in forcing as a weakening shortwave
moving across the southern Great Lakes glances the area. This
should allow for greater coverage of convection to evolve
upstream Saturday afternoon and spread towards Northwest Ohio
into the evening hours. Have a brief window of 60-70% POPs in
Northwest and North Central OH Saturday late afternoon and
evening. Have some 20-30% POPs in across the area for the more
disorganized afternoon convection. Convection pushing in from
the west should gradually weaken while pushing east across the
area once the sun sets given fairly modest forcing, though
showers and some thunder could make it across most of the area
the first half of Saturday night before completely drying up.

Weak deep-layer shear (no more than 20-25kt) and poor mid-level
lapse rates will put a lid on severe weather potential on
Saturday. However, moderate instability (1500-2500 J/KG of
MLCAPE), well-mixed low-levels characterized by lapse rates of
8-9C/km, and dry air aloft contributing to a fair amount of
DCAPE (800-1000 J/KG) could support a microburst/localized
damaging wind potential...especially if we see any particularly
intense cells or any loosely organized clusters. The
thermodynamics do not scream for flash flood/heavy rain
potential, though average storm motion of around 20kt could lead
to localized rain totals of a quick 1-2" which could lead to
isolated flooding in urban/prone areas. The SPC still has a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather out for Northwest OH,
diminishing to a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) east of Sandusky and
Marion and to general thunder east of Ashtabula and Canton. The
main severe weather concern would be damaging wind gusts.

Highs on Saturday are expected to push well into the low 90s,
with dew points ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. This
generally pushes peak heat index values into the 95-100 degree
range. Due to convective potential and room for dew points to
mix down during peak heating it will be hard to hit Heat
Advisory criteria of 100F heat index for 2+ hours on any sort of
a widespread basis, so no heat headlines with this package.
However, it will be hot so those with outdoor plans or without
access to air conditioning should plan for the heat and take
precautions. Lows Saturday night in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will push into Northwest OH and over Lake Erie
Sunday morning and sag across the area through the evening.
Sunday should start mainly dry, though with a moist and uncapped
airmass in place we should start seeing shower and storm
development along and ahead of the cold front by late morning or
early afternoon. POPs are highest across our southeastern
counties (i.e. Mt Vernon to Mansfield to Chardon to Edinboro
points south/east), as a modest increase in jet support towards
the evening and more time for destabilization ahead of the front
suggests storms will be most widespread an organized there, with
coverage and organization decreasing to the northwest where the
front will clear earlier. We will still be dealing with a warm,
humid, but weakly sheared environment on Sunday. Isolated
damaging winds from microbursts are possible, though a more
organized severe threat is not anticipated. Fairly slow cell
motions and flow aloft paralleling the sagging front could
allow for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood
concern on Sunday...mainly in prone or urban areas. Storm
potential may linger into Sunday night across our southern
counties if the front doesn`t push far enough south, with a weak
shortwave moving through Sunday night providing some forcing.

Mainly dry weather is expected Monday and Monday night as weak
high pressure slides into the upper Ohio Valley. Will need to
watch locations south of U.S. 30 for a pop-up shower or storm
Monday afternoon depending on how far south the front ends up.

Highs on Sunday are expected to generally reach the mid to upper
80s. Lows Sunday night trend slightly cooler, generally ranging
from the mid 60s to near 70. Highs on Monday will again reach
the mid to upper 80s, but with dew points cooling some into the
60s, taking the edge off the humidity. Lows Monday night should
again dip into the 60s for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term will start with ridging from the Gulf Coast into
the Mid Atlantic and Northeast in control of the weather,
ushering hot and humid conditions back into the local area. This
ridging begins shifting east after midweek as troughing carves
out over the Midwest and upper Great Lakes, allowing a frontal
boundary to sag towards the local area. Outside of disorganized
pop-up convection, Tuesday should be dry. POPs ramp up for
Wednesday and Thursday given the front starting to approach from
the northwest, with potential for convection to sag in from the
northwest ahead of the front. POPs are highest on Thursday, and
are generally highest each day during the afternoon hours. It`s
uncertain if the front will clear by Friday or still be
overhead, so while POPs trend down a bit for Friday they are
still in there across the board. Temperatures will be above-
average for the long term, particularly on Wednesday. Dew points
likely will reach or exceed 70F Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are observed areawide and are generally expected
to continue through the morning hours today. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening, with greater
coverage likely to the west, and lower coverage towards the
east. Spread in model guidance leads to uncertainty with timing.
Picked the most likely 4-hr window for thunderstorm occurrence
and stuck to the earlier side of model guidance (generally a
~17-23Z window). But there are a few models that have things a
bit later west of the I-71 and especially towards the I-75
corridor. Expectation is for precipitation to clear up by
midnight, though it`s possible isolated showers and storms
could linger through the overnight hours.

Southerly winds generally in the 3-7 knot range are expected
this morning, becoming southwesterly and increasing to the 9-13
knot range this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots. Winds
diminish to the 5-8 knot range tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms east of I-71 on Sunday. Non-VFR with patchy fog or
low ceilings will be possible Sunday night and Monday night,
especially for inland areas away from Lake Erie. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are once again expected Wednesday
afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southerly flow averaging around 10 knots expected today,
becoming southwesterly tonight following the passage of a pre-
frontal trough. Winds speeds should be in the 10-15 knot range
tonight, though there are a few models that have winds briefly
approaching 20 knots at times. Wind speeds improve on Sunday,
becoming northwest on Sunday night after a cold front moves
southeast across Lake Erie. High pressure builds in on Monday
and Tuesday, with light and variable winds expected (aside from
a weak lake breeze each afternoon).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders