Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201458 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1058 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over eastern Kentucky early this morning will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast this afternoon. A piece of low pressure will linger near the Ohio River Valley tonight into Wednesday waiting for low pressure to move up the East Coast of the US. High pressure should build into the area for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Update...Dry air from the north tearing the precip apart just south of the area. Have lowered pops through the afternoon and increased sunshine north. Moisture increases again later today and tonight as wave number 2 rotates into the area so will likely have to wait for that to force much precip north into the area. For now have made a few adjustment to tonight but no big changes as yet. Previous Discussion... Difficult forecast today with low pressure over eastern Kentucky moving off the Middle Atlantic Coast this afternoon. Some precipitation is attempting to move northward toward Mid Ohio but is having a difficult time as it interacts with dry air that resides over northern Ohio and NW PA. There will end up being a very tight gradient of precipitation as it moves ever so slowly northward through the morning. Evaporative cooling with the onset to the precipitation that moves into the region from the south this morning should be enough to cause sleet or snow. As we progress into the afternoon it appears we will warm enough to change any remaining light wintry mix into rain. So no issues are expected through the day. However as another piece of jet energy dives into the upper level trough that resides over the area tonight we should see an increase in the coverage and intensity of the precipitation. After sunset the atmosphere should chill enough for all snow. The northward extent of the snow will remain a difficult call with the dry air still working on the northern edge of it. For now will limit the more significant accumulations of snow to an area near and south of US 30. This area will have the potential of getting very close to 4 inches of snow. So with that said we will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. The heaviest accumulations will occur from 03Z through 12Z then taper off through Wednesday morning. It will be cooler today with highs in the mid 30s to around 40. Similar ranges are expected on Wednesday, coolest where snow accumulations occur tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Deep troughiness will take place over the eastern United States as a series of upper level low pressure systems move across the area. An initial upper level low pressure system will move east out of the Ohio Valley to the east coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A secondary upper level low pressure system will dive southeast across the area Thursday night. This low will help to enhance the upper level trough over the eastern U.S. An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the central United States and then shift east over the local area by the end of the week. Cyclonic flow around the surface low exiting to the east coast will persist through Wednesday night and Thursday. A surface ridge will build east toward the area with the upper level ridge Thursday night and persist through Friday night. The exiting low and approaching ridge will bring a return to fair weather across the forecast area during this period. Temperatures are expected to remain nearly steady from day to day and night to night through this forecast period. No real push of warmer air will take place at this time. High pressure ridge will take its time moving east across the area. Surface flow will continue from a northerly component keeping the warm air at bay. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak shortwave will move southeast along the eastern side of the upper level ridge Saturday into Saturday night. This feature will force a low pressure system to move toward the forecast area with a warm front extending east from the low. Moisture associated with the storm system will begin to spread into the forecast area Saturday and bring another threat for some precipitation. Best chance looks like it will arrive late Saturday into Saturday night in the form of snow. Low pressure and the associated moisture pull out to the east and southeast on Sunday. Another ridge of high pressure will build east across the forecast area aloft and bring another round of fair weather back to the local area Sunday through Sunday night. Yet another low pressure will race northeast and bring with it a chance for some rain come Monday. A little bit of warmer air will arrive gradually by Monday as flow shifts around to the east and southeast. So, a slight warming trend is expected through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions will continue through the morning at most locations. However ceilings will slowly lower from south to north through the day as precipitation spreads northward. We will have to monitor how far north the precipitation can get this morning as it interacts with the drier air over northern Ohio. At this point we believe that any precipitation that occurs this morning across Mid Ohio will be very light and would be either sleet or snow. The southern TAF sites should begin to see MVFR conditions late this afternoon into the evening when the better chances or precipitation arrive. All locations should change over to snow by sunset with accumulations possible at KMFD and KCAK. These southern TAF sites will have the best chances of seeing IFR conditions overnight with the snow. .Outlook...Non-VFR late tonight through Wednesday morning at most locations in -sn. && .MARINE... Water levels on the Western Basin are already high and are expected to remain that way into Wednesday morning. Will go with a lakeshore flood warning for Ottawa and Lucas counties. Small craft advisory will remain in effect through Wednesday morning in the western basin and through Wednesday afternoon over the rest of the lake. Winds are expected to remain gusty across the lake today and will increase and approach gales for about 6 hours tonight. Coordinated with Toronto and Buffalo an agreed to hold off on issuing gale warnings at this time since gale force winds will be brief. Expecting winds to gradually weaken Wednesday across the lake to allow small craft advisory to expire on schedule. Winds will gradually diminish with time to around 10 knots by Friday and Saturday. No significant winds expected beyond Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ003- 007. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ029>033-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ144>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142-143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Mullen MARINE...Lombardy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.