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195
FXUS61 KCLE 051947
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front exits the area to the the east tonight. High pressure
builds in from the north for tonight and Monday. A warm front
comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A weak cold front is currently pushing through NEOH and NWPA
this afternoon. There are a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with that front. We did have one
isolated thunderstorm that produced a localized severe
microburst right over the KYNG ASOS which measured a 74 mph wind
gust. The general message for the rest of this evening will be
a chance for additional showers and isolated storms over far
NEOH and NWPA until that front clears through. A marginal threat
still exist for an isolated damaging wind gust with any
stronger storm.

High pressure across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes
region will build in tonight and Monday. Locations that saw
rainfall this afternoon and evening may see some areas of fog
develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This fog
potential will be mainly across NEOH and NWPA. Overnight temps
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will bring
fair weather conditions tomorrow with mostly cloudy to partly
cloudy skies. Locations further north and closer to the
lakeshore may see a little more sunshine than areas further
south. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with mid 60s near
the lakeshore and lower 70s southward. Fair weather will
continue Monday night upper 40s to middle 50s for overnight
temps.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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With the surface low and upper level low vertically stacked over the
Northern Plains, progression will be slow across the region through
middle part of the week. Upper level ridge axis over the east part
of the Great Lakes region Tuesday morning will push east and allow
thickness layers to increase, winds becoming southwesterly, and
moisture to increase Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, a
warm front will push northeast across the northern Ohio Tuesday
morning and allowing the warm sector to push north across the CWA
during the day on Tuesday. Showers and storms will likely develop
along the northward moving warm front and ahead of the cold front
and push southeast Tuesday evening. There are some model differences
on how far north the mid 60s surface dewpoint tracks across Ohio. A
slight risk of severe storms is forecast across much of western and
central Ohio on Tuesday. Will maintain categorical rain chances
across northwest Ohio Tuesday morning and high pops across the
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon. No cold
advection is expected Tuesday night as Wednesday highs will climb
back up to the upper 70s. Can not rule out a low chance of showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday depending on the
location of the stalled frontal boundary.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The main surface low will finally track east across the north half
of Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Have very
low confidence in placement of moisture fields at this time. As a
result, will maintain elevated rain chance across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday and thinking more convection will be confined to
areas south of US Highway 30. Cold air will finally push into the
region Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level trough
deepens. High temperatures will be below normal Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s and some areas will
not reach 60 for highs on Friday through Sunday under
generally mostly cloudy skies.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
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More shower/isolated storm development this morning largely east
of CLE/CAK. Cold front will be moving in from the west, and with
some additional heating/mixing that will lift some of the lower
ceilings out ahead of it, more thunderstorms are expected later
this afternoon through the evening. However, timing of this has
it most likely to occur after 16Z which puts it east of the
I-71 corridor, mainly from CLE/MFD and east. Some gusty winds
can be expected in the scattered thunderstorms, and only use
TEMPO for CAK and YNG. Other terminals carrying VCTS/CB for a
couple hours in the afternoon. Behind the cold front, it will
take a few hours for the ceilings to clear out into the
overnight portion of the forecast, and winds can be expected to
become northerly late in the forecast period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday into early Wednesday with another frontal system.
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&&

.MARINE...
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A cold front will track east across the rest of Lake Erie this
evening. Surface winds will become northerly this evening and
increase 10 to 15 knots with waves building to 2 feet and becoming
northeasterly on Monday as high pressure builds from the central to
eastern Great Lakes. An active and complicated pattern will follow
for the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift northeast
across the lake early Tuesday with southwesterly winds of 10-15
knots. Another surface low is expected to track east across Ohio on
Thursday, pulling a cold air across the lake on Friday. The track of
this low may change and have an effect on wind direction, speeds,
and wave heights. Strong cold air advection will yield Small Craft
Advisory criteria by Friday.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...FZ