-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
250
FXUS61 KCLE 082355
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
755 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will cross the area Monday as high pressure
continues to build across the eastern United States. The high
will maintain influence through most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track this evening. Winds will diminish
quickly over the next hour with nocturnal decoupling, but
increasing clouds and weak warm air advection ahead of a
shortwave dropping through the longwave trough will still lead
to a slightly milder night.

Original Discussion...

For the most part, dry weather will persist across the area
through the near term period. The only exception will be across
NW PA where a few showers may clip Erie County as a trough
pushes across the region Monday. With that being said, surface
high pressure will suppress the best moisture to the east of the
CWA so the higher chance of showers should be focused across
western New York (which will be downwind from Lake Erie). PoPs
are limited to slight chance (less than 25 percent). Despite the
dry weather across most of the area, it will be quite blustery
late Monday morning into Monday afternoon with southwest wind
gusts to 20 to 30 mph expected. The highest gusts will occur
close to Lake Erie and in the flatter terrain of NW OH.

Another night of unseasonably cool temperatures is on tap with
tonight`s overnight lows falling into the 40s. Locations along
the lakeshore will most likely remain in the 50s tonight. A
warming trend begins to unfold Monday and expect highs in the
70s with lower 80s likely west of I-71. The warming trend will
be apparent with overnight lows as well; minimum temperatures
are expected to be in the 50s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, a ridge builds slowly from the Upper Midwest and vicinity
through Wednesday night. The attendant surface ridge continues to
affect our CWA as the axis of this surface ridge shifts from the
eastern Great Lakes toward the northeastern United States while
remaining in vicinity of the southern Appalachians. This evolution
of the weather pattern at the surface and aloft will allow synoptic-
scale low-level WAA to affect our area as stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge promotes fair weather. Daytime heating,
complemented by the aforementioned low-level WAA, will allow late
afternoon highs to reach the the upper 70`s to mid 80`s on Tuesday
and the 80`s to near 90F on Wednesday. A weak synoptic MSLP gradient
and sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding ~71F Lake Erie
are expected to allow a lake breeze to occur over/within several
miles of the lake each late morning through early evening. In
general, the coolest highs are expected within the lake breeze.
Overnight lows are forecast to reach mainly the 50`s to lower 60`s
around daybreak Wednesday and Thursday mornings, respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The core of the aforementioned ridge aloft is expected to move
slowly from the Upper Midwest and vicinity toward the northeastern
states and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday through Sunday. This is
expected to allow our CWA to remain along the western flank of the
attendant surface ridge, which should become anchored in vicinity of
the spine of the Appalachians. Accordingly, net low-level WAA will
continue to impact our region. This weather pattern evolution at the
surface and aloft is still projected to allow a tropical cyclone to
make landfall somewhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast of LA on late
Wednesday or early Thursday and wobble generally N`ward toward the
Lower OH Valley by Sunday while weakening into a remnant low. Fair
weather is expected in our CWA on Thursday through Friday as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, very moist
isentropic ascent and resulting release of at least weak instability
accompanying the remnant low may trigger isolated showers and
thunderstorms across our CWA overnight Friday night through Sunday.
However, odds for unsettled weather remain low.

Daytime heating and the aforementioned synoptic low-level WAA will
allow late afternoon highs to reach the 80`s to near 90F on Thursday
through Friday. The coolest highs are expected over/within several
miles of ~71F Lake Erie due to lake breeze development each late
morning through early evening. Slightly cooler highs in the 80`s are
expected this upcoming Saturday and Sunday as widespread cloud cover
associated with the moist isentropic ascent accompanying the remnant
low overspreads our region generally from the south and limits
daytime heating. Overnight lows are expected to reach mainly the mid
50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak Friday morning through Sunday
morning, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR will continue through the TAF cycle as high pressure remains
in control. A weak trough could bring a stray shower to KERI
Monday morning between about 09 and 15Z, but confidence is low.

W to SW winds will average 5-10 knots tonight becoming W and
increasing to 15-25 knots Monday.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement are in effect from 5
AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for Vermilion to Avon Point. Farther east, the
Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement have been extended
until 10 PM Monday for Avon Point to Ripley. A ridge builds slowly
from the Upper Midwest through Monday. However, a potent trough will
sweep SE`ward across Lake Erie on Monday and interact with the
ridge. W`erly to SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots and waves as
large as 2 to 5 feet are expected the rest of today. On Monday,
SW`erly to W`erly winds are expected to freshen to as strong as 15
to 25 knots as the MSLP gradient tightens in response to the
aforementioned trough/ridge interaction. Waves will build to as
large as 4 to 9 feet. Note: Waterspouts may accompany showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern-third of Lake Erie Monday morning
through Monday evening. Winds are expected to become variable and
ease quickly to 15 knots or less Monday night behind the trough and
as the ridge continues to build from the west. Waves subside to 3
feet by daybreak Tuesday.

Variable winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are
expected on Tuesday through Friday as the ridge continues to affect
Lake Erie and the core of the ridge moves from the eastern Great
Lakes region toward the northeastern United States.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for OHZ010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Maines
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Jaszka