Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000 FXUS64 KCRP 190912 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 412 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... Another cool day with a light northeast wind is expected today, with winds to turn out of the east to southeast this afternoon/evening as surface high pressure slides to the east. Weak isentropic lift over the region will continue partly to mostly cloudy skies, but also a few sprinkles or showers today across the Coastal Bend and Gulf waters. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer as the weak onshore flow continues, with temperatures still in the 50s for most locations to the lower 60s along the coast. For Tuesday, much warmer temperatures are expected with highs in the lower 80s across the Coastal Bend to upper 80s to near 90 degrees across areas generally west of Highway 281. This is due to the warm west-southwest H85 flow mixing down to the surface. As for tides, will hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory today as yesterday`s tides only briefly reached 2 ft MSL, or 1 ft above ground level. PETSS and ETSS continue to be just shy of 2 ft MSL for today during high tide. Will continue to monitor as persistent NE flow may aid in pushing tides just a bit higher during high tide; however, with the combination of yesterday`s trends and today`s weaker winds, tides may stay below 2 ft MSL today. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Tuesday evening opens with a cold front exiting the Hill Country ahead of a reinforcing push of cool and dry Canadian air. Broad surface ridging following this front will linger over much of Texas on Wednesday into early Thursday before easing its grip thereafter. Meanwhile, pressure falls focusing over western Texas will spur a slow retreat of the frontal boundary over our area by Thursday into early Friday. Very rich Gulf moisture overruning this boundary as early as Wednesday night should lead to elevated showers developing from W-E and continuing through Thursday night. Soundings indicate elevated CAPE becoming more attainable by Thu night, so some TS mention was added over our northern zones. Else, the warm sector should fully envelop most of South Texas by Friday morning with unseasonably rich PWATs as high as 2 inches in the Victoria Crossroads. Zonal flow will have transitioned to southwesterly during this time ahead of a shortwave trough digging across the Four Corners. The latest GFS has trended closer to the faster/progressive ECM and CMC with this wave, so this raises confidence in our timing of a round of deep convection mainly over the eastern half of our CWA Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest kinematic flow and upper jet support remains to our north during this time; however, modest capping locally combined with very rich moisture underneath an axis of steep mid-level lapse rates could prove very favorable for a round of severe storms Friday afternoon and evening, particularly once the base of the trough and weak height falls arrive in the evening. One caveat to this is the potential for a much stronger cap and thermal ridge advecting over portions of our area during the daytime (particularly evident on the ECM and CMC), which would tend to focus the best storm chances farther NE. Such a scenario is not uncommon here in stronger SW flow regimes with modest forcing, yet such deep and moist boundary layer conditions this time around could offset this. PoPs should wither away late Fri night into Saturday with the arrival of a modified Pacific front and very dry NW winds. The NBM appears too weak with this boundary, so winds and temps on Saturday were blended more toward the CONSMOS and operational models which show the front stalling over our waters by Sat afternoon ahead of very warm and hot highs in the upper 80s and 90s thanks to dry downslope winds. Weak upper ridging closes out next weekend with highs tapering back a bit for Sunday and Monday thanks to a return of onshore flow. .MARINE... Weak to moderate northeast flow will continue today. An upper level disturbance will contribute to isolated showers today. Generally weak winds will turn onshore for tonight and Tuesday. A dry cold front late Tuesday night will usher in moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. This flow will become moderate by Wednesday afternoon while turning onshore and continuing through late week. Onshore winds could become strong at times from Thursday through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from Thursday through Friday night ahead of an upper level disturbance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 57 82 57 74 / 10 10 10 0 0 Victoria 74 53 82 48 74 / 10 10 10 0 0 Laredo 75 57 88 58 80 / 10 10 10 10 0 Alice 73 54 87 55 77 / 10 10 10 0 0 Rockport 72 62 80 57 74 / 10 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 78 54 90 51 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 56 85 56 75 / 10 10 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 71 64 78 61 71 / 10 10 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM MCZ/93...LONG TERM

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