Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000 FXUS64 KCRP 021133 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 533 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .AVIATION...
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After a few lingering MVFR ceilings over the eastern terminals through sunrise, VFR will prevail today with steady N winds. Winds slacken tonight while veering more NE as high pressure edges closer.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 410 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... The final vestiges of rain had already shifted well offshore early this morning ahead of drier northerly winds and rising ceilings. Stubborn post-frontal stratus will still make for a dreary morning along the Coastal Bend, while our western counties enjoy a bit more sun. The bigger picture today involves a compact low peeling into the Ozarks while a belt of strong upper winds lingers closer to home. Even as stratus breaks up this afternoon, models show a stubborn layer of saturation around 700 mb that should keep the eastern half of the CWA mostly cloudy and cooler than points farther west. Breezy northerly winds will relax later today as surface ridging draws closer while prepping the stage for a chilly night under mostly clear skies. Light northerly winds tonight will veer more easterly on Wednesday as the surface ridge shifts into the Gulf, yet highs should still warm a solid 5 to 10 degrees over today as weak upper ridging unfolds with mostly sunny skies for all areas. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... The long term period starts out with mid-level ridging over the Great Plains with a developing low moving into the Desert Southwest. Surface high pressure over eastern part of TX will promote onshore flow across the Coastal Bend spreading moisture inland through early Friday ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will continue to warm each day and could see low to mid 80s by Friday. The aforementioned mid-level low will skirt east across the Rockies before diving south bringing our next front. FROPA is expected to occur Friday morning/afternoon reaching the coast by the evening hours. Only expecting some isolated showers in far eastern portions and the Coastal Waters due to isentropic lift favoring these areas co- located with above normal PWATs around 1.30". Colder air will filter in behind the front knocking our temperatures back down Saturday. Onshore flow quickly resumes after the front moves offshore and the warming trend will resume with subsidence over a broad area with a surface high in the Southeastern CONUS and a mid- level high over Central Mexico. These conditions will lend to a quiet end to the long term period. MARINE... Strong northerly flow this morning with Small Craft Advisory conditions will taper to moderate levels from west to east this morning and afternoon. North winds become weak to moderate tonight as high pressure draws closer, before turning northeasterly and easterly on Wednesday and remaining mostly weak. Weak to moderate onshore flow continues Wednesday night through Friday morning. Increasing moisture will contribute to a few showers by Friday ahead of a cold front. Some sea fog could develop later this week until dry offshore flow arrives Friday night behind the front. Winds will become moderate to strong Saturday morning, becoming more moderate as flow shifts to onshore by Sunday evening.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 63 43 68 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Victoria 62 38 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Laredo 66 47 74 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Alice 65 42 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Rockport 63 45 65 51 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 68 42 75 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 64 43 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 49 63 55 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM. && $$ MCZ/93...AVIATION

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