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000
FXUS64 KCRP 190912
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
412 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Another cool day with a light northeast wind is expected today,
with winds to turn out of the east to southeast this
afternoon/evening as surface high pressure slides to the east.
Weak isentropic lift over the region will continue partly to
mostly cloudy skies, but also a few sprinkles or showers today
across the Coastal Bend and Gulf waters.

Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer as the weak onshore
flow continues, with temperatures still in the 50s for most
locations to the lower 60s along the coast.

For Tuesday, much warmer temperatures are expected with highs in
the lower 80s across the Coastal Bend to upper 80s to near 90
degrees across areas generally west of Highway 281. This is due to
the warm west-southwest H85 flow mixing down to the surface.

As for tides, will hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory today as
yesterday`s tides only briefly reached 2 ft MSL, or 1 ft above
ground level. PETSS and ETSS continue to be just shy of 2 ft MSL for
today during high tide. Will continue to monitor as persistent NE
flow may aid in pushing tides just a bit higher during high tide;
however, with the combination of yesterday`s trends and today`s
weaker winds, tides may stay below 2 ft MSL today.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Tuesday evening opens with a cold front exiting the Hill Country
ahead of a reinforcing push of cool and dry Canadian air. Broad
surface ridging following this front will linger over much of Texas
on Wednesday into early Thursday before easing its grip thereafter.
Meanwhile, pressure falls focusing over western Texas will spur a
slow retreat of the frontal boundary over our area by Thursday into
early Friday. Very rich Gulf moisture overruning this boundary as
early as Wednesday night should lead to elevated showers developing
from W-E and continuing through Thursday night. Soundings indicate
elevated CAPE becoming more attainable by Thu night, so some TS
mention was added over our northern zones. Else, the warm sector
should fully envelop most of South Texas by Friday morning with
unseasonably rich PWATs as high as 2 inches in the Victoria
Crossroads. Zonal flow will have transitioned to southwesterly
during this time ahead of a shortwave trough digging across the Four
Corners. The latest GFS has trended closer to the faster/progressive
ECM and CMC with this wave, so this raises confidence in our timing
of a round of deep convection mainly over the eastern half of our
CWA Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest kinematic flow and
upper jet support remains to our north during this time; however,
modest capping locally combined with very rich moisture underneath
an axis of steep mid-level lapse rates could prove very favorable
for a round of severe storms Friday afternoon and evening,
particularly once the base of the trough and weak height falls
arrive in the evening. One caveat to this is the potential for a
much stronger cap and thermal ridge advecting over portions of our
area during the daytime (particularly evident on the ECM and CMC),
which would tend to focus the best storm chances farther NE. Such a
scenario is not uncommon here in stronger SW flow regimes with
modest forcing, yet such deep and moist boundary layer conditions
this time around could offset this.

PoPs should wither away late Fri night into Saturday with the
arrival of a modified Pacific front and very dry NW winds. The NBM
appears too weak with this boundary, so winds and temps on Saturday
were blended more toward the CONSMOS and operational models which
show the front stalling over our waters by Sat afternoon ahead of
very warm and hot highs in the upper 80s and 90s thanks to dry
downslope winds. Weak upper ridging closes out next weekend with
highs tapering back a bit for Sunday and Monday thanks to a return
of onshore flow.


.MARINE...

Weak to moderate northeast flow will continue today. An upper
level disturbance will contribute to isolated showers today.
Generally weak winds will turn onshore for tonight and Tuesday.

A dry cold front late Tuesday night will usher in moderate to
occasionally strong northeast winds with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. This flow will become moderate by Wednesday
afternoon while turning onshore and continuing through late week.
Onshore winds could become strong at times from Thursday through
Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
from Thursday through Friday night ahead of an upper level
disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  57  82  57  74  /  10  10  10   0   0
Victoria          74  53  82  48  74  /  10  10  10   0   0
Laredo            75  57  88  58  80  /  10  10  10  10   0
Alice             73  54  87  55  77  /  10  10  10   0   0
Rockport          72  62  80  57  74  /  10  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           78  54  90  51  80  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  56  85  56  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       71  64  78  61  71  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
MCZ/93...LONG TERM