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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KCRP 021133
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
533 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.AVIATION...

-- Changed Discussion --
After a few lingering MVFR ceilings over the eastern terminals
through sunrise, VFR will prevail today with steady N winds. Winds
slacken tonight while veering more NE as high pressure edges
closer.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/Issued 410 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

The final vestiges of rain had already shifted well offshore
early this morning ahead of drier northerly winds and rising
ceilings. Stubborn post-frontal stratus will still make for a
dreary morning along the Coastal Bend, while our western counties
enjoy a bit more sun. The bigger picture today involves a compact
low peeling into the Ozarks while a belt of strong upper winds
lingers closer to home. Even as stratus breaks up this afternoon,
models show a stubborn layer of saturation around 700 mb that
should keep the eastern half of the CWA mostly cloudy and cooler
than points farther west. Breezy northerly winds will relax later
today as surface ridging draws closer while prepping the stage for
a chilly night under mostly clear skies. Light northerly winds
tonight will veer more easterly on Wednesday as the surface ridge
shifts into the Gulf, yet highs should still warm a solid 5 to 10
degrees over today as weak upper ridging unfolds with mostly sunny
skies for all areas.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

The long term period starts out with mid-level ridging over the
Great Plains with a developing low moving into the Desert Southwest.
Surface high pressure over eastern part of TX will promote onshore
flow across the Coastal Bend spreading moisture inland through early
Friday ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will continue to warm
each day and could see low to mid 80s by Friday. The aforementioned
mid-level low will skirt east across the Rockies before diving south
bringing our next front. FROPA is expected to occur Friday
morning/afternoon reaching the coast by the evening hours. Only
expecting some isolated showers in far eastern portions and the
Coastal Waters due to isentropic lift favoring these areas co-
located with above normal PWATs around 1.30". Colder air will
filter in behind the front knocking our temperatures back down
Saturday. Onshore flow quickly resumes after the front moves
offshore and the warming trend will resume with subsidence over a
broad area with a surface high in the Southeastern CONUS and a mid-
level high over Central Mexico. These conditions will lend to a
quiet end to the long term period.

MARINE...

Strong northerly flow this morning with Small Craft Advisory
conditions will taper to moderate levels from west to east this
morning and afternoon. North winds become weak to moderate tonight
as high pressure draws closer, before turning northeasterly and
easterly on Wednesday and remaining mostly weak. Weak to
moderate onshore flow continues Wednesday night through Friday
morning. Increasing moisture will contribute to a few showers by
Friday ahead of a cold front. Some sea fog could develop later
this week until dry offshore flow arrives Friday night behind the
front. Winds will become moderate to strong Saturday morning,
becoming more moderate as flow shifts to onshore by Sunday
evening.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  43  68  51  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          62  38  68  44  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            66  47  74  54  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             65  42  72  49  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          63  45  65  51  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           68  42  75  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        64  43  71  49  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       62  49  63  55  67  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

MCZ/93...AVIATION