Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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696 FXUS64 KCRP 011914 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 214 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 KCRP 12Z sounding analysis indicates increasing moisture across the area with an observed PWAT of 1.76" (90th percentile). An observed surface CAPE value of ~3,400 J/kg and DCAPE ~1,000 J/kg could support strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon. However, the threat continues to remain conditional due to an apparent inversion at 850mb and a warm layer observed between 850-700 mb. SPC has brought a Marginal Risk of severe storms slightly southward, now extending across portions of northern counties on a line from La Salle to Victoria. A Slight Risk now extends across far northeastern Victoria county. 12Z hrrr guidance suggests the greatest initialization of showers and storms along a line of La Salle to Aransas counties with greatest coverage occurring generally after 18Z. The greatest localized hazards with any stronger storms which are able to develop include large hail, strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Have multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon, especially across central and northern locations, in the event storm intensify and become severe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 MVFR CIGs continue at the TAF sites though some improvement to CIGs is expected as cloud cover begins to thin from ALI to CRP and VCT. Isolated SHRA/TSRA are forecast to begin in the next few hours, delayed some by lingering clouds early this afternoon. TEMPOs/AMDs may be needed as any TS approach the sites, mainly from KCOT to KVCT. Breezy to gusty winds continue closer to the coast (around 15 kt with gusts near 25 kt). Storms may linger after 09z and approach VCT closer to 12z Thu. If this scenario is realized, additional changes to the TAF will be necessary, but confidence remains low at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Moderate onshore winds will result in seas increasing to 3 to 5 feet by Thursday. Winds and seas are then forecast to decrease through Friday. A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 87 76 89 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 74 87 73 87 / 30 20 10 10 Laredo 76 95 75 98 / 20 10 0 20 Alice 74 90 74 92 / 20 20 0 10 Rockport 75 85 75 85 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 75 92 75 97 / 30 20 0 20 Kingsville 75 88 75 90 / 10 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 76 85 77 86 / 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Law AVIATION...Schaper