Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
645 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020


Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.



A dense deck of low-level clouds has lead to borderline VFR to
MVFR conditions across the region this morning. These conditions
are expected to persist through the morning hours, before lifting
to VFR levels at all terminals by the afternoon. Patchy light rain
will be possible through the morning at the eastern terminals,
but should be very light and short-lived, therefore have opted for
not including it in the TAFs at this time. Isolated showers will
then be possible overnight ahead and along a frontal boundary, but
have also opted for holding-off on any mention of it until having
higher confidence on timing. Breezy and gusty SE winds this
morning will persist through the afternoon, before shifting to the
east ahead of the boundary tonight. MVFR ceilings may return late
in the period at all sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 511 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

An upper level trough currently located over the Great Basin will
continue to dig southward into the Desert Southwest while developing
into a closed low through the period. At the surface, high pressure
over the Central Plains has pushed a cold front southward into Texas
leading to much cooler conditions across the northeastern half of
the state. This front is expected to track across Central Texas
today, approaching our northern counties later this evening.
However, uncertainty remains fairly high in terms of the timing and
southward extent of this front, as most deterministic models have it
either stalling just north of the area or midway across the CWA
tonight. Based on experience, have leaned towards the more
progressive NAM solution as this model tends to perform better on
handling these type of fronts. Assuming this scenario plays out, we
will be looking at going from highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s
today, to highs in the upper 60s to lower 50s on Tuesday! On the
contrary, if the front ends up stalling before making it this far
south, then a repeat of today will be in store and we would have
to wait a few more days for the final surge to come in.

In additions to the cooler temperatures, expect breezy north to
northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies in the wake of
the front on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and maybe a
rumble of thunder will also be possible mainly tonight and Tuesday
ahead and along the advancing frontal boundary.

Tides have continued to run about a foot above predicted today
across the southern Gulf-facing beaches, with the tides at Bob Hall
Pier briefly reaching 2.0 MSL at time of high tide. For tonight
though, the astronomical tide is expected to be slightly lower than
earlier today, therefore, will hold-off on issuing any advisories
with this package. But with the flow becoming a bit more easterly
overnight ahead of the front minor coastal flooding certainly
remains a possibility.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

GFS/ECMWF consistent with respect to the NE movement/timing of the
upper low across TX/SRN Plains Tuesday night through Thursday.
Expect synoptic scale lift associated with this system to contribute
to isolated/scattered showers Tuesday night/Wednesday morning,
followed by drier conditions late Wednesday/Thursday, as the upper
disturbance lifts NE/E. The GFS/ECMWF predict another upper system
to move across the Plains Friday night/Saturday, the across the
Mississippi Valley/approaching the ERN CONUS Sunday, which is
expected to maintain dry conditions over the CWA. Concur with
WaveWatch which predicts long period swell to enter the MSA
Wednesday, which may result in a high risk of rip currents
Wednesday. Further, the combination of long period swell and Ekman
forcing from northeast wind Tuesday/Tuesday night, may result in
coastal flooding Wednesday. ETSS predicts tide at Bob Hall Pier to
approach 2ft MSL during the high tidal cycle. Caveat, wind may
become NW Wednesday which may decrease the risk of coastal flooding.


Moderate to at times strong onshore flow will continue over the
Coastal Waters today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
The cold front is expected to push through the Coastal Waters
Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon accompanied by a chance for
isolated to scattered showers. A moderate offshore flow
will kick on Tuesday in the wake of the cold front. An upper
level disturbance is expected to contribute to isolated/scattered
showers over the Waters Tuesday night/Wednesday. Drier conditions
expected Wednesday night/Thursday as the upper system moves NE/E.
WaveWatch predict swell associated with Zeta to approach the
Coastal Waters by Wednesday. Anticipate Small Craft Advisory
conditions Wednesday/Wednesday night owing to high seas. In
response to another upper system predicted to move across the
Plains/Mississippi Valley, weak to moderate north flow is expected
to persist Thursday/Friday.


Corpus Christi    86  63  68  55  70  /  10  20  20  30  10
Victoria          85  56  66  53  67  /  20  30  20  30  30
Laredo            90  57  58  50  68  /  20  40  30  20   0
Alice             89  60  65  53  70  /  10  20  30  30  10
Rockport          84  64  73  58  72  /  10  20  20  30  20
Cotulla           88  54  57  50  68  /  20  40  40  30  10
Kingsville        88  62  67  55  70  /  10  20  30  20  10
Navy Corpus       85  66  72  61  72  /  10  20  20  30  20





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