Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 090450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1050 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019


06Z aviation discussion follows.



Conditions appear to be trending towards a bit less fog at CRP
and ALI overnight, but some IFR ceilings are still likely to
emerge in the coming hours especially from VCT-ALI-COT. LIFR
conditions with some dense fog were restricted to COT for now
given better model consensus. Deeper moisture should keep low
clouds around a bit longer at most sites before VFR resumes by
late morning/early afternoon with gusty south winds at CRP and
ALI. Low ceilings may return Mon night, but confidence this far
out is too low at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

A weak upper low will develop over southern California tonight
and move southeast into northwest Mexico on Monday, while the
stronger northern stream upper trough moves out of the central
Rockies tonight through the central plains Monday. Southerly
low level flow will increase to 25-30 knots over the region
tonight in response to low pressure area over the southern plains
ahead of the upper trough. Expect clouds will increase overnight
but winds will be light enough over the inland areas for areas
of fog to form again overnight. The 85H flow will veer to the
southwest on Monday bringing in temperatures above 20 degrees
C. After morning clouds, expect a very warm day on Monday with
highs just below record levels.

The cold front associated with the upper trough moving to the
east will move into the area after midnight. Moisture will be
lacking ahead of the front and will only show a slight chance
of showers across northeast areas Monday evening. But moisture
will arrive with the front overnight as the upper low opens
up into a short wave trough that will moving into the Texas
Big Bend by 12Z Tuesday. Expect precipitation will increase in
coverage overnight with best chance over the Victoria Crossroads.
Went just below the NBM but above the MOS guidance.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

The cold front will be pushing off the coast at the start of the
long term. The warmest temperatures for the day are expected to
occur just ahead of the frontal passage, with temperatures to remain
in the 50s for the majority of the day. Sufficient moisture ahead of
the front will lead to scattered showers across the region, with
slightly less activity across the western Brush Country. Rain
chances will diminish from northwest to southeast behind the front.
Breezy to windy north wind will develop behind the front. Winds
across the bays and Gulf waters will strengthen to at least Small
Craft Advisory, with possible need for Gale Warnings for portions of
the Gulf for frequent gusts to near gale force. Along the coastal
area, especially for the barrier islands, Wind Advisory conditions
may be needed. Winds will gradually diminish through early

Chilly nights are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday night with
lows in the 30s/40s. Although not expecting freezing conditions,
will need to monitor low-lying locations toward the Cross-Fowlerton
area in the Brush Country for overnight low dipping to just above
freezing. Wind chills will feel even colder in the low to mid 30s
both nights as well.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the latter half of the week
as surface high pressure slides to the east. A general east-
northeast flow will occur through Thursday before another mid-level
shortwave and weak frontal boundary moves through the region
Thursday night and Friday. A lack in moisture should keep this
frontal boundary rather dry. Again, surface high pressure will slide
to the east Saturday, but this time with onshore flow returning.
Temperatures will warm through the weekend, reaching into the upper
70s to near 80 degrees Sunday.


Onshore flow will strengthen to moderate levels tonight into
Monday as low pressure strengthens over the southern plains with
SCEC conditions over the offshore waters. The southerly flow will
weaken Monday night as the cold front pushes into south Texas.
Scattered showers will be possible late Monday night ahead of the
cold front.

Chances for showers will increase through Tuesday morning with the
approach of a cold front. The cold front will push offshore shortly
after sunrise with strong to very strong northerly winds to develop
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wind gusts to gale force will be possible
Tuesday with seas to build to hazardous levels. Winds and rain
chances will diminish early Wednesday. A slight chance of showers
returns later in the week.


Corpus Christi    64  84  55  60  40  /   0   0  40  70  10
Victoria          62  82  49  54  36  /   0  10  80  80  10
Laredo            61  85  54  58  40  /   0   0  10  30  10
Alice             61  87  53  58  39  /   0  10  40  60  10
Rockport          66  80  54  58  41  /  10   0  60  80  10
Cotulla           57  82  50  56  35  /   0  10  40  40  10
Kingsville        63  87  55  60  40  /   0   0  40  60  10
Navy Corpus       67  80  56  61  44  /   0   0  40  70  10





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