Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 311725
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will persist across South Texas this
afternoon with the highest coverage of convection from AlI
eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
west. Expect activity to decrease late this evening and into the
overnight hours before increasing again late in the night and
early Monday morning. VFR to MVFR conditions will continue with
lowest CIGS near showers/storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 603 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...

Isolated convection persists over the area this morning. Ceilings
are VFR for all sites, with VCT experiencing some MVFR
visibility. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
morning along and near the coast, then spread inland through the
day today. Some of the storms could have heavy rainfall. MVFR
ceilings are expected as convection overtakes the area, with a
reduction in visibility expected with areas of heavy rainfall.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease this evening and
tonight, leading to improving conditions and VFR ceilings and
visibility. Ceilings will reduce again to MVFR by early morning
Monday with another increase in convective activity. Winds could
be gusty in and around thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Ongoing convection has continued through the overnight hours,
spreading inland as a result of coastal convergence. An upper
level low over Mexico will drift to the north through the short
term, increasing moisture over the area and providing lift over
the area. Rain chances will increase through the day, spreading
inland by this afternoon. The best chances for rain will be over
the waters and for the Coastal Bend and the Victoria Crossroads
along a coastal trough where surface convergence will be
greatest. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening and
early tonight, but coverage will increase again late tonight and
into Monday.

Above normal PWATs at near or slightly above 2.0 inches will lead
to at least some of the showers and thunderstorms producing heavy
rain. Rainfall amounts as high as 2 to 4 inches are possible
along the eastern portion of the CWA for the next few days. With
relatively high flash flood guidance, widespread flash flooding
does not seem too likely; however, with slow storm motions and
isolated high rainfall rates, localized flash flooding could be an
issue.

With cloud cover, deep moisture, and rainfall, temperatures will
be a bit cooler than some of the model guidance suggests for
Sunday and Monday. Highs should remain in the low to mid 80s for
most of the area.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...

It`s looking like a wet start to the work week as we remain under
the influence of an upper level low situated near the Big Bend
region. Onshore flow will continue to usher deep tropical moisture
inland with PWATs generally around 2" for much of the week. Lift
provided by the upper level system and ample moisture available will
maintain rain chances through mid week. By mid week, the upper low
will shift to the northeast as a ridge begins to build in. Without
any significant forcing, convection will be mainly diurnally/sea
breeze driven through the end of the work week as PWATs will remain
rather high.

The forecast becomes a bit blurry by the time we get to next
weekend. Tropical Depression Two-E is forecast to move inland over
Guatemala or Southeastern Mexico with the remnants moving into the
Bay of Campeche early next week. It is still uncertain when or if
the low will redevelop while in the Gulf but if it does, we could
see a spike in our rain chances next weekend. The National Hurricane
Center currently has a 30% chance of formation over the next 5 days.

Temperature-wise, we will be a few degrees below normal through mid
week due to the increased cloud cover. High temps will generally be
in the low to mid 80s along the coast to the low 90s out west.
Nights will be warm and humid with lows in the low 70s inland to
around 80 degrees along the immediate coast.

MARINE...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through Monday. Gusty winds are possible in and around any
thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible through Wednesday as we remain influenced by an upper
level low. Isolated rain chances will continue Thursday and
Friday as moisture remains elevated across the region. The
forecast heading into next weekend remains a bit uncertain as we
monitor the potential for a low pressure system to develop in the
Bay of Campeche.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  72  84  74  86  /  80  70  50  30  30
Victoria          82  70  84  71  87  /  80  50  50  20  30
Laredo            85  71  87  72  88  /  60  50  60  40  30
Alice             82  70  85  71  88  /  70  60  60  30  30
Rockport          82  75  84  78  88  /  80  80  50  20  30
Cotulla           85  70  86  71  89  /  60  50  50  30  20
Kingsville        82  72  85  73  89  /  80  60  50  30  30
Navy Corpus       81  75  83  78  87  /  90  80  60  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PH/83...AVIATION



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