Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 180858
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
358 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Surface ridge that has been overhead will weaken today and shift
off to the northeast as low pressure deepens over the panhandle.
This will result in winds shifting around to the east and
southeast through the day, allowing for a gradual increase in
surface moisture. Dewpoints currently in the upper 40s and 50s
will increase into the upper 50s and lower 60s by evening.
After high temperatures today into the lower to mid 80s (close to
normal), lows tonight will struggle to drop below 60 for a lot of
the area. Temperatures near the coast could even increase a bit
late in the night as surface dpts continue to rise. The shallow
moisture could also result in some some patchy fog late in the
night.

Expect more clouds on Tuesday along with conditions returning to a
more muggy feel as dewpoints are back into the mid and upper 60s.
High temps warm a couple more degrees into the mid and upper 80s
away from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

A mid to upper level low over Wyoming Tuesday night will shift
eastward through midweek. This low will bring a weak cold front
through North Texas on Thursday, that then dissipates or retreats
northward through the rest of the week, never extending down into
South Texas. Quasi-zonal flow in the upper levels accompanied by the
subtropical jet stream will remain rather stagnant through Thursday.
Patchy fog will be possible over the Coastal Plains late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning as moisture gradually increases,
winds are calm to light out of the southeast. The only concern is
cloud coverage, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies due to a
passing shortwave but knowing how sensitive some areas are and SREF
showing over 30 percent probability, went ahead and included it. A
pre-frontal trough may make its into South Texas Thursday, however
the GFS keeps this feature north of the CWA. In any case, a pre-
frontal trough will only result in a brief wind shift from the
north.

A strong low over Canada absorbs the previously mentioned low as it
traverses across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Meanwhile upstream, a
couple additional mid to upper level troughs develop from their
parent lows east of the Rocky Mountains and travel across the
Central Great Plains through the weekend. These systems will bring
across a series of weak shortwaves over the region, but with a lack
of moisture (PWATS below 1.5"), only expecting to see an increase of
cloud cover and a few stray showers over the Coastal Bend and
waters. Low to mid level flow aloft finally shifts southeasterly
Friday, which will gradually increase moisture through the weekend
(PWATs above 1.5"). Therefore, have included slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters, Coastal Bend, and
Victoria Crossroads Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will remain consistently slightly above normal with
highs in the mid 80s along the coast to the low-mid 90s out west,
lows will range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the
coast. Patchy fog will be possible through the work week early in
the mornings with dry mid-levels, surface dewpoints increasing, and
light winds at night.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will shift east to southeast today as high pressure moves to
the east of the area.  Weak onshore flow will continue through
Wednesday night with fluctuations between northeasterly and
southeasterly winds Thursday through Friday in association with a
pre-frontal trough. Onshore winds strengthen to moderate Saturday
through the weekend as pressure gradient increases due to a
surface low forming east of the Rocky Mountains. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible Friday through the weekend due to
mid-level disturbances and increasing moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  66  85  69  87  /  10   0   0   0  10
Victoria          80  57  84  64  88  /   0   0   0   0  10
Laredo            85  66  88  69  91  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             84  61  87  65  90  /   0   0   0   0  10
Rockport          80  69  84  73  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           83  64  89  66  91  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        84  62  86  66  89  /  10   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       81  72  83  74  86  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PH/83...SHORT TERM
EMF/94...LONG TERM


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