Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1135 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will build into the area for the
next 4 or 5 days. After a cold day on Friday, there will be a
gradual warming trend over the weekend which will continue
through the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
0240Z Radar has light returns through the NE corner with only
light snow falling. Have limited to no accums with these showers
due to the strong cold air and obvious mixing from the strong
air aloft.
The upper level system continues to move eastward, however post
frontal northwesterly flow continues with gust flow across
central PA. Gusts have diminished through the far SE of the
Lower Susquehanna region, however given the strong air aloft and
limited directional shear, expect for gusts to continue
overnight. So given that winds remain and current temperatures
are still in the upper 30s to low 40s this mixed atmosphere will
keep the temps from bottoming out. However, the continued cold
air by the arriving air mass and clear skies should drop temps
in the SE to near or slightly below freezing. Only the
metro/urban areas will stay above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough swings totally out on Friday with NW flow left
for the day. This will keep it much colder than normal for
Friday. Wind stays up in the teens during the day. Good news is
that a giant sfc high pressure area over the upper
plains/midwest slides in and begins to modify under the April
sun this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Friday and beyond, there will be a welcome break of lighter
wind, sunshine and milder temps as a large area of high pressure
moves out of the midwest.

Another series of upper lows look to move across the south and
into the eastern US next week. This may spread some
precipitation toward our region into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving and strengthening storm system over the Canadian
Maritimes will bring breezy conditions to central Pennsylvania
through Friday. Northwest winds will abate a bit tonight, but
Bufkit soundings support gusts of around 25kts returning by late
Friday morning.

Low level moisture ascending the Appalachians will produce
predominantly MVFR cigs over the northwest mountains (KBFD)
tonight, while areas further south along the Appalachians
(KJST) may experience tempo MVFR. Elsewhere, confidence in VFR
conditions is high overnight.

Any MVFR cigs should mix out by late morning, with widespread
VFR a near certainty by Friday afternoon, as high pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Rain/low cigs possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Fitzgerald


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