Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 060255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
955 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Clouds will increase again overnight. Flurries to a few snow
showers are likely across the northern part of the state on
Friday as a weak cold front moves through. Mainly dry conditions
with slightly below normal temperatures will follow for the
weekend. A warm up with some rain is in store for Monday and


Sfc ridge axis bisecting central PA late this evening. Clouds
increase again west of this feature as return southwest boundary
layer flow and warm advection increase from the Ohio Valley.
Skies will become mostly cloudy to cloudy again across the north
and partly to mostly cloudy south overnight. Some light snow
showers forming along a quasi stnry front near the PA/NY border
could brush the NW mtns toward daybreak Friday. Min temps
overnight will be in the mid to upper 20s across the north, and
in the low 30s across the south.


Another cold front brings a chance for snow and rain showers
Friday as a fairly potent wave of sfc low pressure slides by
just to our north. Prefrontal moderating return southwest flow
will allow for frontal precip to begin as rain, with a
changeover to snow showers as the front passes Friday afternoon
and evening. Any snow accumulation will be very minor and
confined to elevations AOA 2000 ft MSL across northern PA as
temps will be in the low to mid 30s and QPF amounts will be AOB
0.10 of an inch.


Long range guidance in good agreement that a large ridge of
high pressure builds over the western US towards the middle of
the week and ultimately pushes eastward into the eastern US next
weekend. As the high pressure system moves off the east coast,
temperatures moderate next Sunday- Monday, with some GOMEX
moisture streaming north- northeast along the Appalachians
bringing periods of rain for next Monday into Tuesday.


Lower/VFR clouds starting to erode from S-N, but the next wave
is on it`s way from the NW. Wind will continue to die off, with
some sites going light/var or even calm. Radar echoes over
lower MI are still aloft for the most part. However, by 09-10Z a
few -SHSN could reach BFD. However, the lift will stay
generally to the N of the NY border. A cold front will zip
through during mid-day Fri, but is starved for moisture. Thus,
while the clouds may lower to MVFR by late in the day, the only
other site to have a chc for precip is JST where temps should be
warm enough for -SHRA which could occur in the aftn. Post-
frontal winds pick back up to 12-15KT with gusts in the 20s,
perhaps upper 20s in JST. The upslope flow will quickly close up
any clearing immediately behind the front. But, lack of moisture
and rather high inversion at first which crashes overnight
should keep any time of IFR at BFD and JST rather brief Fri
PM/early Sat AM. IPT/MDT/LNS should scatter out, but could have
VFR cloud bkn deck.



Sun night...Mainly VFR. Lowering cigs.

Mon-Tues...Widespread SHRA/MVFR. IFR poss. CFROPA Tues.




NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
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