Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 202011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
411 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

A large area of high pressure will build into the area and
dominate our weather through at least Monday. A gradual warming
trend will ensue and get us back to near normal temperatures.


Clouds have reached a stasis for the moment, but should be
dissipating as we lose the heating/mixing/instability. Dewpoints
did not dry out as much as expected, but are still only in the
20s. The gradient slackens even more tonight, and with
decoupling, we should be able to crack the freezing mark almost
everywhere again tonight. Some wind may be left on the ridges,
but most of the populous areas will drop aob freezing overnight.

We have another plot of counties added to the areas in the
growing season for Saturday morning/tonight as the normal last
freeze is past there. In near-perfect timing, it happens
coincident with our mins expected to drop aob 32F. So, We will
hoist another freeze warning for the morning.


The only mar to Saturday will be a shield of high clouds which
should slip overhead. They may not be thick enough to cause any
forecast trouble, but it is in the back of my mind that they
could knock a deg or two off the maxes. So, I will hold off on
changing the temps at all, even though model guid would nudge us
up a few degs. Less wind and the sun will make it feel like


High pressure continues through the weekend and into next week.
Mornings will remain chilly, but afternoon temperatures
moderate toward seasonal normals with readings reaching the mid
50s to mid 60s by Monday.

The next weather maker is advertised to begin affecting the
region on Tuesday and continue through midweek. An upper low
will track east under the upper ridge that extends from the
Midwest up into Canada. As the low emerges onto the plains it
takes on a sort of rex-blocky appearance as it crawls eastward,
and latest model runs slow this system down from previous
timing so grids adjusted accordingly.

Models are in good agreement in eventually opening up this low
as it approaches the east coast, reforming the long wave trough
over the eastern US by the end of the week. The good news is
that what looks like it could end up being several days of
unsettled weather, it will be mild enough that the precipitation
type will be rain. Lighter amounts will creep in from the south
on Tuesday, with a period of moderate rain likely Tue night into
early Wed before the system lifts to the NE.

Showery precip could persist into Thu as cyclonic flow returns
aloft with potential for a shortwave to slip through during the
day. Milder pattern continues late week ahead of next trough
approaching for next weekend.

High temperatures are expected to remain slightly colder than
normal throughout the forecast period. But being only a few
degrees below normal will feel relatively nice given the almost
constant much below normal temperatures we have endured so far
this month.


High pressure building into PA this weekend will keep VFR
conditions across the region into at least Monday.
Winds will remain gusty until late aft or evening, and then drop
off, esp across the west and lower elevs in the east.

Just high clouds tomorrow with little sfc/llvl mstr to make
anything more than few cu.


Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Rain/low cigs possible PM.

Wed...Rain/low cigs.


Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ026>028-


NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Dangelo is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.