138
FXUS61 KCTP 081703
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
103 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

2) Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

Fog forming in the valleys of the northern and central mtns as
of 06Z. Should be just as, in not more, extensive than Mon AM.
The fog should burn away early this morning in most places, but
could take until 10 AM in the deepest, darkest recesses of
Central PA.

Abundant sunshine, mixed with some flat cumulus and high, thin
cirrus clouds will kick off the shortened school and work week
Tuesday. As the center of this area high pressure drifts
southeast of PA on today and Wednesday, return southwesterly
flow will usher in an uptick and heat and humidity.

The upper level ridge centered over the Central US will also
begin to nudge into the Mid Atlantic while beginning to flatten.

Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s today. We`ll add
another 1-3F on Wed. Combined with dewpoints back in the mid to
upper 60s, heat index values may touch the 90F mark in the
south central mountains on Wednesday. Rain-free conditions will
prevail and we`ll continue to enjoy a break from very active
stretch of severe weather we`ve dealt with this summer.

--------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night
into Thursday.

By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across
northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient
will support an uptick in synoptic scale/gradient winds
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Expect gusts into the 20s on
the hilltops and also in the SE. A gust near 30MPH is possible
on the tops of the Laurels Wed night just before the front.

The cold front will spark SHRA/TSRA, with the majority occurring
before the front passes later Wed night N and Thurs in the S.
The risk for severe weather will depend on the magnitude of a
shortwave trough racing through the region and any associated
jet dynamics in play.

Vertical wind profiles look unidirectional, so the primary
hazard would be from damaging winds. Timing of the cold front
and dewpoints largely staying out of the upper 60s to lower
70s range are the 2 main reasons to think storms will not get
too crazy, unlike recent events. Timing of the cold front has
been similar the last few days. SPC outlook currently has a MRGL
risk area for Wed-night painted across the NW half of the CWA.
Seems in line with previous forecasts. The new Day3 (Thur-night)
outlook barely has the general thunder area into the CWA -
basically along and S of the PA Turnpike. The current WPC
outlook for Thurs paints a SLGT risk of excessive rainfall over
the SW quarter of PA - including the Laurels. However, it will
be difficult to squeeze out heavy rain without thunder/deep
convection. So, we`ll chat with WPC about the threat risk.

High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry
and sunny Friday. There could be a few PM SHRA/TSRA Saturday
and/or Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns. A
more-active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the
flat upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make
it difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any
shots of atmos forcing. The second half of the week probably
ends dry as the upper ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the area will keep fine late summer
weather over the area into early Wednesday aft.

Other than a few clouds, skies will remain mainly clear
overnight. Mid level clouds will move in ahead of a cold
front later Wed. A strong storm could move into the area
late Wednesday afternoon, mainly across the NW at BFD,
but this would be after 18Z.

The activity will likely weaken later in the day as it
moves to the east and south. Some showers and even a few
storms will likely linger into Thursday, before  tapering
off as the cold front drops south and east of central PA.

Outlook...

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...VFR prevails with drier conditions across all of central
Pennsylvania.

Sat-Sun...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for
afternoon SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Martin