Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 171922
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
322 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low east of New England will slowly pull away from the
region over the next two days, as a series of weakening shortwaves
lift into the region from the Ohio Valley. A deepening upper
level trough will then swing across the area by Wednesday and
Thursday of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Trailing shear axis across portions of the northwest/wc
producing isolated showers detected by radar at mid afternoon,
which may be reaching the ground north of Clearfield and Dubois.
Added isolated POPs for those areas for the next couple of
hours. Another moisture-starved shortwave lifting into the area
from the Ohio Valley towards evening will produce a few more
isolated showers across the north central/northeast mountains
very late this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers dwindle
by late evening then dry conditions prevail everywhere late
tonight, as large scale subsidence arrives behind departing
shortwave. Mins range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower to
middle 40s south and southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Decaying upper low shearing across the Ohio Valley on Sunday
will pass over central PA Sunday afternoon, with a trailing
shortwave/split trough upper pattern passing through early
Monday. Low PW accompanying both of these systems for generally
isold showers focused over the western part of the forecast
area Sunday PM and the eastern part Monday AM. Ridging at the
surface and aloft is indicated by Monday afternoon, supporting
fair weather. Mostly sunny skies and a developing southwest flow
should push temperatures into the 60s over most of the area by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday looks like the warmest day this week ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front and associated area of showers
arrives on Wed, with arrival a bit to early to generate thunder
for most of the region, though eastern counties may hear a
rumble in the afternoon. The front will be followed by falling
temps Wed afternoon in the west.

As upper trough swings by late Wed into Wed night, perhaps some
unimpactful snow for portions of northwest PA on Wednesday.

Then, below-average temperatures return for Thursday as
cyclonic flow holds residence overhead. Model guidance coming in
line for decent change for sub-freezing temps Thu morning over
NW half of CWA. At least a brief warmup currently looks to be
in the offing for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Improving conditions across region with CIGS slowly rising and
good VSBYs. VFR conditions forecast for the rest of the
afternoon. May see some brief reductions to IFR conditions
overnight at KBFD and KJST before improving again after sunrise.

Outlook...

Sun and Mon...Reduced cigs possible in scattered showers,
mainly over the northern and western highlands.

Tues...Generally VFR, although a few showers are possible late
across NW PA.

Wed...Showers likely, with reduced cigs areawide.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Ross


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