Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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082
FXUS61 KCTP 190902
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
502 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide by to the south of Pennsylvania today.
A couple of cold fronts will move through over the weekend,
dropping temperatures and leading to lake effect showers.
Colder than normal temperatures but mainly dry weather are
expected for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temps have hardly moved for many hours, but should rise nicely
as the sun should be at full October 19th strength (which is a
lot like late-February sun). But, it should be a classic
October 19th. High pressure and associated subsidence will keep
it pretty sunny through most of the day. We haven`t had too many
if any of these clear and crisp days this autumn. High clouds
will creep in from the west late in the day. Expect the SSW wind
to start to pick up over the wrn mtns late this morning, but
stay light in the mid & lower Susq Valley. Gusts could get into
the 20s on the higher elevations of the north and Laurels later
today. Maxes hold in the m-u50s - close to, but just slightly
below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A trough moving in from the west will bring only a meager amount
of moisture with it tonight. PWAT barely goes above normal along
the srn border for a few hours tonight. The trough is moving
quickly and rain/showers should be very light. Precip should
stay all rain overnight as the wind and temps stay up, with the
temps well above freezing. Another shot or two of colder air
then come in from the NW and will drop the temps significantly
through the weekend. The temps won`t move much at all on Sat
over the NW thanks to the clouds and cold advection, and may max
out in the morning there. It will get breezy with gusts close
to 30 Sat aftn. The W/NW wind will also generate sct/nmrs shra
off the lakes, but the temps will be mild enough to keep p-type
rain until near sunset in the far NW. The downslope will likely
help the lower Susq to get into the l60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*A taste of winter Saturday Night-Sunday. Blustery winds, snow
showers, reduced visibility with some accumulation in the higher
elevations.

A potent shot of cold air will be accompanied by gusty winds
and snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Light snow
accumulation (<1 inch) is expected in the NW snowbelt and higher
elevations of the Allegheny Plateau into the Laurel Highlands
(along/west of US-219). Wind chills in the low 30s NW to low 40s
SE on Sunday will make it feel more like early December than
late October. Conditions will improve Sunday night into Monday.
A system passing to the north of the area may bring a few light
rain/snow showers to the northern tier on Tuesday; otherwise
anticipate dry wx to last through midweek.

More detail below.

850 mb temps Sunday down around minus 8, thus plenty cold for
snow.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally clear skies expected tonight as the wind has decoupled
in most places and will continue to do except perhaps at JST.

On Friday, cirrus will slide in from the Ohio Valley during the
late morning and afternoon, followed by lowering ceilings Fri
night into generally the MVFR range with a chance for light
rain developing mainly after midnight.

.Outlook...

Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...AM low cigs/LLWS likely W Mtns. Scattered showers and
areas of mainly MVFR cigs as a cold front pushes SE across the
PA airfields.

Sun...SHSNRA/cig reductions likely NW Mtns before dawn through
the day. Breezy NW wind.

Mon-Tue...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ045-046-
049>053-058-059.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-056-057-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru



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