Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
514 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

A cold front will finish pushing through Central PA this
morning. High pressure will then build into the area, brining
much drier air. A weak shortwave will track over the region
late Wednesday, then a slow moving cold front is likely to sag
south into the region by next weekend.


Multiple lines/clusters of SHRA and weak TSRA are moving
steadily eastward early this morning. Thunder is on the decrease
in the central and western mtns, but on the increase in the SErn
piedmont. The front seems to be into NWrn Warren Co at this time
with the dewpoint dropping 10F over the last hour at ERI and
HZY. Some SHRA still developing along the front, so we cannot
remove PoPs from really anywhere in Central PA. By 12Z, the
front should be into UNV/JST/IPT. That should be the end of the
rain there. Exit of the precip from the SE/Lower Susq may be
another 2-3 hrs slower than model consensus from a day ago. The
chc for rain may linger at LNS until noon or even 1PM. Temps may
stick in the L70s in the SE until cfropa. Drying due to
advection, subsidence and mixing should allow the dewpoint to
drop well into the 40s in the NW, and 50s elsewhere. Expect
maxes in the 70s N&W, and 80-85F in the S&E as the wind becomes
a gusty NW breeze.


Fair and chilly conditions are expected Monday night as surface
high builds into the area. Clear skies, dry air and a
diminishing breeze should allow readings to dip into the 40s
over the Alleghenies and low to mid 50s over the southeast
counties. Negative GEFS 850mb temps anomalies of a few degrees
suggests readings will remain below average Tuesday, despite
plenty of sunshine. Model soundings also continue to support
undercutting NBM dewpoint guidance during the afternoon, due to
very dry air above a weak inversion in the model soundings.


All medium range guidance supports generally dry weather with
mostly sunny days and a warming trend Wed-Fri, as 500mb heights
rise over the region. A moisture-starved shortwave is progged
to track across the area late Wednesday. Can`t rule out a PM
shower or TSRA with this feature, but latest ensemble plumes
don`t support POPs any higher than about 10 pct. Ensemble mean
850mb temps nearing 20C indicate highs will likely peak Friday
in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Falling heights ahead of an upstream trough, combined with
surging pwats ahead of the approaching cold front, will bring a
chance of PM convection next Friday, mainly over the northwest
counties. There is a better chance of showers and storms by
Saturday associated with the arrival of the slow-moving cold
front. A fair amount of model spread/forecast uncertainty
remains for late next weekend. However, at least some guidance
indicates the front will push far enough south for drier/less
humid conditions Sunday, especially over the northern counties.


9Z Update...
Band of showers moving across south central PA this morning will
cause brief reductions in vis and cigs. Thunder is also
possible in this line, especially as it moves east through the
rest of the morning. In the NW, VFR conditions are moving in and
will continue through the rest of Monday.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving west to
east across PA early this morning ahead of a cold front. Brief
restrictions are expected through the rest of the night at all
airfields in SHRA/TSRA. At BFD, LIFR cigs are expected to last
through daybreak.

After 12-14Z, the cold front will pass and gusty NW flow and
clearing skies are expected behind the front. NW gusts up to
25-30kts will be possible through Monday afternoon.


Mon...VFR with gusty winds.

Tue-Thu...Mainly VFR.

Fri...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. A chance of a shower
or storm late.




NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Wagner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.