Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 210747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
247 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Travel will remain difficult across central Pennsylvania
through the overnight. Conditions will improve into Thursday as
a breezy west wind directs drier air into the region. Fair
weather will continue into Friday before another round of
precipitation over the weekend. It will turn windy and colder
Sunday night into Monday with little to no precipitation
expected early next week.


Regional radar at 06Z shows the significant precipitation has
shifted well east of the forecast area, as secondary coastal low
strengthens off the NJ coast. Shallow moisture, combined with
orographic forcing will result in some lingering drizzle/freezing
drizzle during the pre-dawn hours, mainly along the spine of
the Appalachians.

Expect temperatures to slowly rise across most of the area early
this morning, as cold air is gradually scoured out ahead of
approaching occluded front. By 12Z, expect most of the forecast
area to be above freezing, helping to improve road conditions.


Precipitation will be over by dawn, but pockets of icy
conditions may persist through the morning rush hour, mainly
over the NE portion of the CWA and on untreated surfaces until
temperatures rise above freezing areawide by mid morning.

High pressure building in from the Grt Lks should ensure dry
weather today and Friday. A drier westerly flow behind occluded
front should bring brightening skies across much of the region
by late morning. However, rh fields indicate stratocu will
linger over the Allegheny Plateau until afternoon. Mixing down
model 900mb temps yield max temps today from the upper 30s over
the northwest mountains, to the upper 40s across the Lower Susq


The mid range models are in fair agreement through the weekend.
A fairly strong high pressure will continue to build into the
early weekend before a closed low propagating through the
central US moves through the region Saturday night into Sunday.

The models disagree on the depth of he cold air but there will
be warm air aloft which should bring the possibility of mixed
precipitation early Saturday. After that expect periods of rain
throughout the weekend. Temperatures will trend milder Saturday
into Sunday with fcst highs in the upper 40s north to near 60F
in the LSV.

It will turn windy and colder into early next week. Model
guidance suggest advisory level wind gusts are possible Sunday
night into Monday. The colder NW flow should produce snow
showers downwind of Lake Erie. Otherwise, the wx looks mainly
dry Monday and Tuesday.


Widespread IFR-LIFR ceilings near alternate minimums will
continue through the predawn hours before trending MVFR to VFR
later today -- as a drier and breezy west-northwest post-
frontal flow (270-300 degrees gusting 20-25kts) increases
throughout the airspace. The westerly, terrain enhanced low
level flow will extend duration of lower ceilings and
-dz/-fzdz/-ra over the western airspace while the downslope wind
helps to return airfields to VFR east of the Alleghenies from
the eastern edge of ZOB sector throughout ZNY. Expect mainly VFR
conditions into tonight with MVFR cigs possible across the
northwest airspace.


Fri...MVFR cigs NW psbl early, otherwise VFR.

Sat...Trending MVFR to IFR with wintry mix to rain.

Sun-Mon...Windy with sfc gusts 30-40kts from 250-300 degrees.


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for


NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/RXR
LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.