Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 240649
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
249 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across Pennsylvania late this
afternoon and evening.

Cooler and dry weather will follow for Friday. The holiday
weekend will bring warmer temperatures, higher humidity and a
renewed chance for showers and storms at times. Memorial Day
itself looks to offer up fantastic weather for much of the day
with near normal temperatures and comfortably lower humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Broken line of convection is accompanying the cold front, as it
pushes into southern Pa late this evening. Overall intensity has
diminished between 02Z-03Z. However, can`t rule out additional
severe weather in spots over the southern tier counties, where
SPC mesoanalysis shows capes between 500-1000 j/kg and wind
shear remains strong.

Any scattered convection should end by around 06Z over the
southern tier, as front pushes south of the region and drier
drier air sweeps in. Lows will drop back into the comfortable
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
In the wake of the cold front, Friday looks breezy cooler and
drier.

The main issue will be a gusty NW wind.

Highs will be near to slightly above normal in the mid to upper
60s north and mid to upper 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some adjustments to the grids to match others and new guidance.

After a dry day on Friday, looking at some chance of showers
and storms on Saturday, mainly late across the north and west,
as low pressure lifts northeast toward James Bay.

The cold front sags southward into our area on Sunday, keeping a
chance of showers and storms across the area into Sunday
evening.

Most if not all of Memorial day looks to be dry.

Most of Tuesday looks to be dry, perhaps a shower or storm
across the north.

Wednesday and Thursday looks to be harder to time, as a deep
Polar Vortex starts to phase with the next cold front. Thus have
some chance of showers and storms in the fcst.

This activity could linger into late Thursday night, given a
complex system.

Maybe a risk of frost at some point after FROPA, but that is
further out than our fcst extends at this point.

Have a good holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Building high pressure will provide VFR conditions Friday under
partly to mostly sunny skies, and a breezy northwest wind could
gust 15-20 mph.

Humidity creeps back in this weekend, and cannot rule out a
scattered t-storm.

.Outlook...

Fri...Ceiling restrictions possible early NW, then mainly VFR.

Sat...Restrictions possible near scattered tstms, mainly north.

Sun...Restrictions possible near scattered tstms, mainly west.

Mon-Tues...Generally VFR, although a spotty showers or storm is
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...La Corte/Lambert/Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ceru/Evanego


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