Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 092204
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
604 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and much colder weather is expected through late week.
Expect temperatures to moderate and winds to subside for Easter
weekend. Widespread soaking rainfall is likely early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wind advisory expired at 6 pm and gusty winds will persist well
into tonight with 30 to 40 mph gusts common over the Lower Susq.

Colder and blustery west northwest flow with mixed rain and snow
showers (graupel this evening) across western and central
sections, becoming more widespread through the evening across
the northern/western 1/2 of the area. Steady to falling
temperatures thanks to strong CAA will spell a mix and
changeover rain/snow showers to snow showers over parts of the
central ridges with snow showers across the higher elevations in
the western Alleghenies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
An anomalous upper trough over the Grt Lks will pivot southeast
across the region tonight into Friday morning. Deep cyclonic
flow and cold air will produce periods of lake enhanced upslope
snow/showers across the Allegheny Plateau with up to 2-3 inches
likely on over the highest terrain. A mix of rain and snow
showers is likely along the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies
with little to no snow accumulation expected. Blustery winds may
briefly subside a bit early tonight before ramping back up into
Friday morning. Peak gusts should remain below advisory
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Plenty of stratocu and 850 temps well below normal will
translate to a very chilly Friday, with highs 15 to 20 degrees
below average in most spots. Snow showers over the Alleghenies should
taper off Friday PM, as the upper trough begins to lift out.

The extended period begins cold as Canadian high pressures
builds into the region Friday night, maintaining breezy
conditions overnight that should prevent widespread frost from
forming over the Lower Susq.

High pressure crosses the area on Saturday with moderating
temperatures (still below avg highs) and dry conditions.
Temperatures continue trend warmer on Sunday with increasing
clouds as high pressure slides off the East coast.

Widespread rainfall expected to begin early next week with
anomalous moisture flux spreading into central PA in advance of
low pressure tracking northeast from the lower MS Valley. Showers
remain possible on Tuesday with secondary cold front crossing
the Appalachians, followed by another shot of colder air for
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong gusty winds 30-40kt from 280-310 degrees expected this
afternoon into Friday. Occasional rain/snow showers will also
be across the airspace before tapering off Friday night. IFR
conditions most likely at KBFD tonight into early Friday
morning. Rain/snow showers taper off through the day Friday with
improving conditions expected into the weekend.

.Outlook...

Sat...Low cigs psbl early then trending VFR.

Sun...VFR early. Chance rain showers by aftn. Strong/gusty
southerly winds psbl Sunday afternoon depending on
track/development of sfc low forecast to move east from the
Mississippi Valley.

Mon...Reduced cigs/vsbys in widespread rain. Strong/gusty
southerly winds continue turning westerly late in the period.

Tue...Improving conditions with cigs/vis trending VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/RXR/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl


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