Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191119 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 719 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Following a spell of oppressive heat, temperatures will return to more typical early summer warmth with lower humidity. The risk for showers and thunderstorms will outnumber dry days as the pattern remains fairly active through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Scattered showers to start the day across central PA. Rainfall overnight was locally heavy across parts of south central PA with MRMS/IRIS 3-6hr precip totals showing a stripe of 1-3 inches from southern Clearfield/Cambria southeast across Blair and Huntingdon counties. Expect light showers to decrease in coverage this morning, shifting toward the Mason-Dixon line by midday. The hires models support the highest POPs over the southwest Alleghenies into western MD this afternoon, where the HREF members are unanimous in developing scattered convection invof the quasi stationary boundary. Need to watch this area (WPC MRGL to SLGT ERO) for potential FF threat given high PWs and sufficient instability. Most locations should anticipate generally improving conditions from north to south by later today with highest confidence across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. Rain risk/probs should increase into Wednesday morning across western areas as the next wave approaches from the OH Valley. Max/min temps will be about 10-15 degrees lower than yesterday with less humidity. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Short term/hires model blends generally agree in bringing rain back into central PA on D2. Increased POPs and lowered maxT. PWs remain high invof the quasi stationary boundary draped near the MD line. WPC MRGL/SLGT ERO covers the southern 1/2 of the area and will mention in HWO. Thursday (D3) looks like a dry day (for now) as the front gets shunted to the south, allowing high pressure to briefly take control of the pattern. Thursday night could get relatively cool with mid-40s fcst across north-central PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A shortwave trough and associated surface low pressure is fcst to track north from the Midwest through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada Fri-Sun. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms appear probable during this time. High pressure should return dry weather early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Improving and mainly VFR conditions are expected later this morning and afternoon, as drier air pushes into the region from the north. Model soundings suggest MVFR cigs may linger until mid afternoon over the southwest airfields (KJST and KAOO). .Outlook... Wed...PM rain/cig reductions possible southern Pa. Thu...Early AM rain/cig reductions possible southern Pa. Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible central mountains. Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible. Sct PM tsra impacts possible.
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&& .CLIMATE... Williamsport tied the record high yesterday of 97 degrees set in 1994. Astronomical summer begins Thursday, June 21st at 607 AM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner CLIMATE...

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