Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220620 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 220 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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The region will stay under a moist and unsettled weather pattern for the next several days. Rainfall this morning will give way to scattered showers this afternoon. A good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Seeing some impressive rainfall totals across southern counties with some areas of Adams and Franklin Counties closing in on 5 inches of rain. Fortunately the area had been quite dry for the last several weeks and todays rain has been spread out over many hours. That said there will be some minor flooding to contend with through the morning hours in areas that received the heaviest rains. This large area of rain is moving slowly northwest this morning with some slow decrease in intensity. This rain will diminish and move out of the area this morning but the area will remain under a moist southerly flow. More showers are expected again this afternoon. Temperatures will run a few degrees below average with the moist conditions and thick cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Humid weather pattern tonight as temperatures won`t fall to much off the days highs. Will keep the chance of showers in the forecast with several disturbances in the flow pivoting through the area. Little change on Monday with more showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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By late Monday, upper trough will be filling off to our west. Its position will remain nearly stationary or even retrograde a little as strong broad ridge forms over the western U.S. For PA, long fetch moist southerly low-level flow continues for much of the week, with upper flow turning more SW/W. Not much to inhibit daily convection, so the quite unsettled pattern will continue as plenty of clouds abound. Best daily chances for tstorms shifts to western/central sections early in the week (as ridge briefly edges in from the east) before precip shifts eastward Thu as a cold frontal boundary finally pushes across the state. The weekend looks drier. Though it will be quite muggy, temperatures will be at or slightly below below normal much of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation has overspread all airfield sites as of this evening. Current radar and short term high resolution models indicate pockets of moderate rain to move from southeast to northwest over the next 6-8 hours. Models indicate a heavy band of rain moving north from KMDT- KUNV-KBFD from 05Z-09Z. Then a quick transition to light rain and then dry weather around 12Z. By the end of the forecast period, scattered convection will develop but just put in VCTS for now as the timing and exact location of airfield effects is too far out to be more specific. .Outlook... Mon-Wed...Frequent showers/isolated T`storms with associated MVFR/IFR restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019- 026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Ross/RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski

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