Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 032001 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 301 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cruise east of the region by late afternoon, followed by quickly building high pressure from the Ohio Valley. A dying cold front is likely to push into the area Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, lingering to the south of the state.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold front racing through our eastern counties at mid afternoon with widespread 25 to 35 mph gusts and locally 40+. Rain shield slowly diminishing as shear overwhelms CAPE. Impressive subsidence behind front is bringing breaking clouds and gusty winds which will continue through late afternoon as surface ridging and much drier air works into the region. Bufkit soundings continue to support post-frontal wind gusts this afternoon AOA 35kts across western and central areas. Further south, expect still busty but slightly lower wind speeds. Cold westerly flow over Lk Erie should generate a bit of lake effect over the northwest mountains late this afternoon. However, inversion heights are quite low, so any accums will likely to limited to dusting on the hilltops of Warren/Mckean counties. Frontal showers clear the southeast before late afternoon, with only some light scattered light snow showers or flurries left in its wake over the northwest mountains. Expect these to diminish by late tonight as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. Gusty west winds will also gradually subside toward dawn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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High pressure tracking just south of PA should supply fair and seasonable weather and light winds on Sunday. We continue to undercut NBM dewpoints Sunday afternoon in favor of the lower MAV numbers based on model soundings, which show a layer of dry air above a weak inversion.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure centered over PA and a transition to zonal flow aloft will begin this period and feature dry conditions and slightly above normal temps to start the week, as cold air will be locked well north of the Canadian border with warm air trapped in the southern U.S. The upper flow will slowly back to the WSW by the middle of next week and the deepening swrly flow aloft will transport increasing cloud cover, but relatively limited moisture into the state for the Tuesday/Wednesday period, when the highest chc of precip (Likely to Categorical POPS) will be. QPF amounts at this point appears to be quite light and mainly between 0.10 and 0.25 of an inch. A rather compact and highly progressive upper trough, embedded in the quasi-southern zonal branch of the jet, will likely bring another round or two of mainly light-moderate liquid precip late next week as it heads our way from the Mid Miss and Ohio Valleys. The air could become cold enough for the rain/showers to mix with/change to snow or snow showers thursday night and Friday before this upper energy and sfc low scoots east and off the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. Temps peak some 10-15 deg F above normal Tue night through Thu prior to the arrival of the aforementioned sfc/upr trough and precip, then slip back to near normal for Friday into next weekend. Pertinent info from the Prev Disc... The uncertainty with the position of the old front in the latter half of the week is troublesome enough to keep low chc PoPs in just about every time period. NBM does nudge temps up slightly Thursday vs previous fcst which would keep mixed/frozen precip away. But, it still gets colder for Fri and Sat. The potential exists for some light overrunning precipitation to develop in the predawn hours Tuesday morning, and depending upon local temperatures, we will be watching for the potential for some light mixed precipitation under this scenario. Confidence this far out remains low of course, given model timing differences and inherent complexity with mixed ptypes, let alone beyond 84 hours. The threat appears to be on the lower side at this time. Will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves by the end of next week given strong blocking signal over Greenland and negative AO/NAO teleconnections. CPC is leaning colder across all of their temp outlook durations - including the December outlook which now leans toward below normal temps for CPA. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sfc cold front rapidly exiting central PA at mid afternoon with sfc winds gusting 35 to 45 kts. Gusty NW winds persist into tonight in wake of front with 25 to 35 kt gusts common through early evening before slowly diminishing late tonight and early Sunday. Cigs improve to VFR throughout, except JST and BFD will be impacted by upslope and lake effect clouds through tonight. Outlook... Sun...No sig wx expected. Mon...Increasing clouds with a chance of precipitation. Reductions developing from west to east in the afternoon/evening. Tue...Widespread reductions expected. Wintry mix poss early before chance of rain.
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&& .CLIMATE... November 2022 ranked T19th warmest at MDT and T23rd at KIPT. IPT monthly precip was +1.22" above normal. Avg. maxT contributed more to the warmth than avg. minT - a reversal of recent trends. While the month ended about 2.5-3.0F above climo, temp trends were on a roller coaster with a big warm to cold swing during the first 20 days or so. Annually, several sites including MDT, IPT, BFD, and STCP1 are tracking as the warmest year on record. We will be monitoring this trend closely. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Dangelo NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Travis/Tyburski CLIMATE...

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