Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 091659 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1259 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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Air quality will slowly improve today and Saturday, but will still be in the unhealthy category today. Temperatures will warm up Saturday and Sunday ahead of a cold front on Monday. Rainfall is expected to be widespread but not heavy on Monday with some thunderstorms possible. Additional, scattered showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over the Alleghenies.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Air quality concerns remain today with some haze around this morning and early afternoon, but some mixing will occur spotty showers may help to precipitate out the smoke particles. The radar is showing several showers popping up over the northern tier of PA with some lightning recently over the Finger Lakes of New York. Expecting to see showers expand through the afternoon and into this evening as a short wave trough swings through from the northwest. CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg will support some lightning in some of the more robust showers, but overall bulk shear is low so am not too worried for severe this afternoon and evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Most showers will dissipate this evening, but some could linger, with the highest chc for SHRA over the NE tonight. Some clearing is expected, and temps will get back down to the 40s again tonight. Depending on where the rain falls this afternoon, patchy fog may form in some valley locations tonight. The upper low keeps slipping NE and away from PA on Saturday. That should drop the PoP almost entirely. But, we`ll keep some SHRA over the NE as the heights don`t rise too much. More sunshine should also equate to a bit higher mixing and hotter temps. We should add 10-15F onto Friday`s maxes. The high pressure finally slides off shore on Sat night, and the wind should switch to come from the SW by Sunday morning. That should really kick out most or all of the smoke. Sky cover looks like we may not be able to clear out, and this will help the overnight mins stay 4-6F milder than Fri night/Sat AM.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the Commonwealth, with a progressive surface cold front likely to cross the region Monday. The timing on this frontal passage has been inconsistent between model runs. The most recent guidance suggests the cold front will be slower than originally anticipated with the main front expected in eastern PA Monday morning. However, transition from current blocking pattern is still not fully certain, and so what we can say for sure is that Sunday into Monday may present the best CHANCE of rain we`ll see for the next week, but it`s far from certain at this early time. If the current forecast holds then the QPF guidance for this system suggests some relief from the dry conditions that have held over Central PA since the beginning of May, but these are still not drought ending amounts of precipitation. As for the daily sensible weather, temperatures next week should remain seasonal for the end of spring and the beginning of summer. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning in association with diurnal heating and a weak upper level shortwave, but dry conditions are expected to be prevailing through most of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A scattered to broken deck of cumulus will develop today across the area with periods of MVFR ceilings expected at BFD and low VFR elsewhere. Scattered showers and a stray thunderstorm will develop this afternoon, with brief reductions possible. The cumulus deck will clear out overnight with mostly clear skies developing. Some low cloud/fog development is possible, especially at airfields where rain falls today. Still too early and low confidence to include anything in the TAFs regarding fog/low clouds overnight. Outlook... Sat...PM SHRA possible at IPT, elsewhere no significant wx. Sun...Slight chance of PM SHRA and TSRA. Mon-Tues...Higher likelihood of SHRA and TSRA, especially PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Travis NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Travis SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Travis LONG TERM...Travis/Bowen AVIATION...Banghoff/NPB

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