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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 091659
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1259 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Air quality will slowly improve today and Saturday, but will
still be in the unhealthy category today. Temperatures will warm
up Saturday and Sunday ahead of a cold front on Monday.
Rainfall is expected to be widespread but not heavy on Monday
with some thunderstorms possible. Additional, scattered showers
are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over the
Alleghenies.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Air quality concerns remain today with some haze around this
morning and early afternoon, but some mixing will occur spotty
showers may help to precipitate out the smoke particles.

The radar is showing several showers popping up over the
northern tier of PA with some lightning recently over the Finger
Lakes of New York. Expecting to see showers expand through the
afternoon and into this evening as a short wave trough swings
through from the northwest. CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg will
support some lightning in some of the more robust showers, but
overall bulk shear is low so am not too worried for severe this
afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Most showers will dissipate this evening, but some could linger,
with the highest chc for SHRA over the NE tonight. Some
clearing is expected, and temps will get back down to the 40s
again tonight. Depending on where the rain falls this afternoon,
patchy fog may form in some valley locations tonight.

The upper low keeps slipping NE and away from PA on Saturday.
That should drop the PoP almost entirely. But, we`ll keep some
SHRA over the NE as the heights don`t rise too much. More
sunshine should also equate to a bit higher mixing and hotter
temps. We should add 10-15F onto Friday`s maxes.

The high pressure finally slides off shore on Sat night, and the
wind should switch to come from the SW by Sunday morning. That
should really kick out most or all of the smoke. Sky cover looks
like we may not be able to clear out, and this will help the
overnight mins stay 4-6F milder than Fri night/Sat AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in
their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the
weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low
amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the
northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over
the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow
aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the
Commonwealth, with a progressive surface cold front likely to
cross the region Monday. The timing on this frontal passage has
been inconsistent between model runs. The most recent guidance
suggests the cold front will be slower than originally
anticipated with the main front expected in eastern PA Monday
morning. However, transition from current blocking pattern is
still not fully certain, and so what we can say for sure is that
Sunday into Monday may present the best CHANCE of rain we`ll
see for the next week, but it`s far from certain at this early
time. If the current forecast holds then the QPF guidance for
this system suggests some relief from the dry conditions that
have held over Central PA since the beginning of May, but these
are still not drought ending amounts of precipitation.

As for the daily sensible weather, temperatures next week should
remain seasonal for the end of spring and the beginning of
summer. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning in association with
diurnal heating and a weak upper level shortwave, but dry
conditions are expected to be prevailing through most of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A scattered to broken deck of cumulus will develop today across
the area with periods of MVFR ceilings expected at BFD and low
VFR elsewhere. Scattered showers and a stray thunderstorm will
develop this afternoon, with brief reductions possible.

The cumulus deck will clear out overnight with mostly clear
skies developing. Some low cloud/fog development is possible,
especially at airfields where rain falls today. Still too early
and low confidence to include anything in the TAFs regarding
fog/low clouds overnight.

Outlook...

Sat...PM SHRA possible at IPT, elsewhere no significant wx.

Sun...Slight chance of PM SHRA and TSRA.

Mon-Tues...Higher likelihood of SHRA and TSRA, especially PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Travis
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Travis
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Travis
LONG TERM...Travis/Bowen
AVIATION...Banghoff/NPB