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457
FXUS61 KCTP 220318
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1118 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Mostly cloudy and breezy start to the second to last weekend of
 March with light rain showers
*Another round of rain expected Sunday night into early Monday
*Near to below average temperatures for most of next week with
 little to no precipitation

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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The 03Z satellite loop shows a shield of thin cirrus
overspreading Central PA ahead of a moisture-starved shortwave
over E Kentucky. An upper level trough and associated cold
front further upstream over the W Grt Lks will approach very
late tonight, perhaps spreading rain showers into Warren County
around dawn.

Increasing high clouds and an active southwest breeze should
keep temperatures from falling too far tonight. Expect mintemps
in the 30s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front is progged to sweep southeast across the region
between 15Z-21Z Saturday. Although pre-frontal PWATs will be
unimpressive, CAMs support a good chance of measurable rain
showers, especially over the Alleghenies, with dwindling POPs
to the lee of the mountains in the Susq Valley.

Thermal profiles indicate some wet snowflakes could mix
with the rain showers over the NW Mtns, but surface temps should
be too mild for any accumulation. Subsidence behind the exiting
front and passage of a decent isallobaric couplet supports
gusty northwest winds during the late afternoon and evening.
Bufkit soundings indicate peak gusts to 30-35 mph. High temps
will be +/- 5F either side of climo with maxT in the 40-60F
range from NW to SE.

High pressure will provide dry wx Saturday night into Sunday.
Low temps Saturday night will be a bit chilly for this time of
year with min temps 5-10F below climo in the mid teens to upper
20s.

Model guidance indicates a weak surface low will pass south of
PA Sunday night. Warm advection precip will spread west to east
across CPA Sunday night. QPF amounts are still projected to be
on the light side between 0.10-0.25 inches, but generally more
widespread vs. Saturday. As for ptypes, model soundings support
light rain over most of Central PA Sun night. However, either
rain or snow is possible over the N Mtns, where a light snow accum
of <1 inch is possible. Temps Sunday night may go non diurnal
across the W Mtns and will trend much warmer vs. Saturday night
by +10-20F.

The surface wave and bulk of the precip should shift east of the
Delmarva Peninsula by 12Z Monday. However, an occluded front
linked to a primary low over the Grt Lks will push through
Central PA Monday, perhaps accompanied by a few light
showers/sprinkles.

Subsidence associated with an arriving dry slot should result
in breaking clouds Monday with deep mixing leading to gusty WSW
winds. Bufkit soundings support afternoon wgusts of 30-35kts,
which is considerably higher than NBM guidance. Mixing down
800mb temps yields expected maxtemps Monday ranging from around
50F over the NW Mtns, to the low 60s across the Lower Susq
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Medium range guidance indicates upper level troughing will
remain over the region Tue-Thu, likely resulting in seasonably
cool and mainly dry conditions. A shortwave rotating through
the base of trough could produce a few rain/snow showers Tue
night. Some guidance develops a weak surface low south of PA,
thus the highest POPs are focused over the southern counties.

Confidence in dry weather is fairly high Wed PM through
Thursday, as most guidance indicates surface ridging builds into
PA from the Ohio Valley.

The departure of the upper trough and surface high pressure
passing off of the East Coast will likely result warmer
and mostly dry conditions next Friday. However, a warm front
lifting through the E Grt Lks could produce a few PM showers,
mainly over the NW Mtns.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue overnight as high clouds move in.
A 40-45 knot low level jet will move into western PA ahead of
an approaching cold front and will lead to LLWS developing at
the central and western airfields. MVFR ceilings will develop at
BFD and JST by 12-15Z as precip begins to fall, with the
highest chance of IFR cigs at BFD from 15-18z (70 pct chc).
Rain will be the predominant precip type, though snow will
likely mix in at BFD and possibly JST in the late afternoon and
evening, as steady rain transitions to showers. Some showers may
be heavy along the cold front passing Sat afternoon.

The rain will spread eastward through the day, but MVFR
ceilings are not likely for the TAF sites east of AOO/UNV (30
pct chc at IPT).

Outlook...

Sun...Sig wx not expected during the morning. Chc for rain
increases Sun night. Snow may mix in at onset in the colder
spots. Restrictions possible.

Mon...Rain with restrictions possible. Mixing with snow possible
across the north and west as precip tapers to showers.

Tue...Restrictions possible especially N/W with slight chc for
lingering rain and snow showers.

Wed...Restrictions possible especially N/W with slight chc of
rain and snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco