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000
FXUS61 KCTP 051809
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
109 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Bands of showers continue to fade as the day continues.
Flurries to a few snow showers are likely across the northern
part of the state on Friday as a weak cold front moves through.
Mainly dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures
will follow for the weekend. A warm up with some rain is in
store for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*Light Snow continuing through NW mtns.
*Gusty winds of 20 to 25 mph with Wind chill values in the teens
 expected through the Northern tier counties.

The trough has lifted and with it the snow showers. Expect for
flurries with perhaps a weak snow band to continue through the
north west mountains late this morning through the first half of
the afternoon. However, no significant accumulations are
expected. The winds have shifted behind the front so expect
gusty winds upwards of 20 to 25 mph through the early evening.

High temps today will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
ranging from around 30F across the higher terrain of the north,
to the low 40s in the Southern Tier valleys. Apparent
temperatures should range from the teens along the New York
border to the low 30s along the Mason Dixon due to the gusty
winds. The winds should decrease late this afternoon, early this
evening as a sfc ridge of high pressure builds over the PA/OH
border by 23Z today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Sky cover from the Mid Susq Valley south to the Lower Susq
Valley and South-Central Mtns will be scattered to ocnly bkn,
with greater than 80 percent cloud cover across the Alleghenies
of northern and western PA from a combination of dual stratocu
and altocu cloud layers from the departing LLVL CAA and
developing moderately strong WAA aloft.

Some light snow showers forming along a quasi stnry front near
the PA/NY border could brush the NW mtns toward daybreak Friday.

Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 20s across the
north, and in the low 30s across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next cold front associated with this upper trough brings a
chance for snow and rain showers Friday as a fairly potent wave
of sfc low pressure slides by just to our north. Any snow
accumulation will be very minor and confined to elevations AOA
2000 ft MSL across northern PA as temps will be in the low to
mid 30s and QPF amounts will be AOB 0.10 of an inch.

Long range guidance in good agreement that a large ridge of
high pressure builds over the western US towards the middle of
the week and ultimately pushes eastward into the eastern US next
weekend. As the high pressure system moves off the east coast,
temperatures moderate next Sunday- Monday, with some GOMEX
moisture streaming north- northeast along the Appalachians
bringing periods of rain for next Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Snow showers will taper off through the afternoon. MVFR cigs
continue overnight at BFD. Gusty winds from 280-300 decreasing
after 00Z shifting to 220-240 in the western airspace and
variable/ESE at eastern airfields. A brief period of snow
showers is possible across the northern airspace Friday
morning. A few showers may accompany the frontal passage Friday
afternoon. LLWS at JST appears likely around daybreak Friday and
may be included in later TAF issuances.

.Outlook...

Fri...Period of rain/snow and MVFR cigs northern tier airspace.

Sat...MVFR cigs possible northern/western airspace early.

Sun...Light rain (rain/snow NW) possible late.

Mon...Rain and widespread restrictions likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Banghoff