Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 051809 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 109 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Bands of showers continue to fade as the day continues. Flurries to a few snow showers are likely across the northern part of the state on Friday as a weak cold front moves through. Mainly dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures will follow for the weekend. A warm up with some rain is in store for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... *Light Snow continuing through NW mtns. *Gusty winds of 20 to 25 mph with Wind chill values in the teens expected through the Northern tier counties. The trough has lifted and with it the snow showers. Expect for flurries with perhaps a weak snow band to continue through the north west mountains late this morning through the first half of the afternoon. However, no significant accumulations are expected. The winds have shifted behind the front so expect gusty winds upwards of 20 to 25 mph through the early evening. High temps today will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, ranging from around 30F across the higher terrain of the north, to the low 40s in the Southern Tier valleys. Apparent temperatures should range from the teens along the New York border to the low 30s along the Mason Dixon due to the gusty winds. The winds should decrease late this afternoon, early this evening as a sfc ridge of high pressure builds over the PA/OH border by 23Z today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... Sky cover from the Mid Susq Valley south to the Lower Susq Valley and South-Central Mtns will be scattered to ocnly bkn, with greater than 80 percent cloud cover across the Alleghenies of northern and western PA from a combination of dual stratocu and altocu cloud layers from the departing LLVL CAA and developing moderately strong WAA aloft. Some light snow showers forming along a quasi stnry front near the PA/NY border could brush the NW mtns toward daybreak Friday. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 20s across the north, and in the low 30s across the south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next cold front associated with this upper trough brings a chance for snow and rain showers Friday as a fairly potent wave of sfc low pressure slides by just to our north. Any snow accumulation will be very minor and confined to elevations AOA 2000 ft MSL across northern PA as temps will be in the low to mid 30s and QPF amounts will be AOB 0.10 of an inch. Long range guidance in good agreement that a large ridge of high pressure builds over the western US towards the middle of the week and ultimately pushes eastward into the eastern US next weekend. As the high pressure system moves off the east coast, temperatures moderate next Sunday- Monday, with some GOMEX moisture streaming north- northeast along the Appalachians bringing periods of rain for next Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow showers will taper off through the afternoon. MVFR cigs continue overnight at BFD. Gusty winds from 280-300 decreasing after 00Z shifting to 220-240 in the western airspace and variable/ESE at eastern airfields. A brief period of snow showers is possible across the northern airspace Friday morning. A few showers may accompany the frontal passage Friday afternoon. LLWS at JST appears likely around daybreak Friday and may be included in later TAF issuances. .Outlook... Fri...Period of rain/snow and MVFR cigs northern tier airspace. Sat...MVFR cigs possible northern/western airspace early. Sun...Light rain (rain/snow NW) possible late. Mon...Rain and widespread restrictions likely. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Banghoff

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