National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 030601
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
101 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of dry weather is expected in central PA
through early next week. Temperatures will bounce higher into
Wednesday before cooling down through into the weekend. A more
pronounced warming trend is projected to begin next week with
odds increasingly tilted toward above average temperatures into
mid March.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure centered along the mid Atlantic coast is providing
clear and calm conditions early this morning. Boundary layer
warming already occurring as return WSW flow advects milder air
aloft into PA from the Ohio Valley. A freshening WSW breeze is
expected over the western and northern mtns thanks to a tightening
p-gradient, preventing mins from dropping much colder than the
25-30F range. The coldest readings are likely to be found over
the south central to southeast valleys where the boundary layer
will be decoupled allowing temps to bottom out closer to sfc
dewpts or around 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A weakening Alberta clipper sfc low streaking eastward across
the Saint Lawrence River Valley early Wed. will send a moisture
starved cold front southward across the lower Great Lakes into
CPA by tomorrow evening. The only sensible wx from this dry front
will be an uptick in the westerly breeze (common with dry
fronts) and increasing low clouds sinking southward from NY
into the northwest 1/2 of the CWA by 00Z Thu.

Max temps will bounce off the weekly lows on Tuesday and climb
10 to 20 degrees warmer, reaching the 50 degree mark across much
of south central PA (east of the mtns). We were keen to stay on
the warm-side of NBM across the southern 2/3rds of the CWA
given more sunshine and downslope flow/low level mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11 pm Tuesday update... In the big picture, a broad NW flow of
moderately cold air across the Commonwealth will prevail from
Thursday through Saturday, as a deep vortex sits and spins over
the Canadian Maritimes and an upper ridge axis stays situated
over the central U.S. Although this pattern will bring
occasional light snow showers/flurries into the usual spots (the
northern tier and the Allegheny Front), amounts look very
light/inconsequential, with the lake response limited by a dry
air mass and short upstream fetch. From the ridge and valley
region eastward into the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valleys
and the southern Poconos, it looks dry and chilly.

From the latter part of the weekend well into next week, Spring
fever is likely to take hold, as the previously mentioned
Canadian upper low lifts out and fills, allowing heights to rise
over the Commonwealth and the low-level flow to back into the W
and SW. This should spell a significant warm up, with highs by
the middle of next week likely to reach well into the 50s and
perhaps the lower 60s in spots. All the while, generally dry
weather is expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR through tonight with winds shifting to the west-
southeast or to 230-260 degrees. 35-45kt LLWS fcst over the
northern 1/2 of the airspace late tonight into early AM Wed.
MVFR to low VFR cigs are likely to return to the northwest 1/2
of the airspace by 00Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...MVFR cigs psbl northwest 1/3 of the airspace with a
passing -shsn possible. Gusty winds 20-30kt from ~300 degrees.

Sat-Sun...VFR with decreasing winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Closing the books on winter season 2020-2021. Prelim data shows
Harrisburg finished as the 28th snowiest on record with a total
of 36.0 inches or +11.3 inches above the 30-year average.
Total snowfall at Williamsport ranked as the 8th snowiest
winter with 53.8 inches or +26.1 inches above the long term
mean.

February was also a notable month in the snowfall category
as Williamsport (8th snowiest with 22.0 inches), State College
(11th snowiest at 25.2 inches), and Harrisburg (18th snowiest
with 19.7 inches) set notable marks. Of additional note:
February of 2021 was the snowiest February since 2014 at all
three sites.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Gartner
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...