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000
FXUS61 KCTP 240348
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1148 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push eastward across the Commonwealth later
tonight, accompanied by a few light showers. Behind the front,
cooler, more seasonable temperatures will be with us this
weekend, along with mostly rain free weather. Conditions will
likely turn unsettled again early next week, with periods of
rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Showers and a few rumbles moving thru the NW right on time. Low
clouds behaving themselves in the east, not creeping too far to
the west at this point. Temps are very mild, esp for almost
midnight! Currently, we`re 3-8F warmer than normal maxes for
the day. The real front does look like it is now through CLE and
CMH, almost to ERI. All is mainly on track for the rest of the
night. Showers should lose any thunder shortly as they move into
more-stable air. Temps should stay mild in the SE, but fall hard
over the NW in just a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1130 pm update... Main change was to add to the PoPs over the
srn tier for Sunday as most models now generate some precip to
the NW of a wave which looks like it will move up the east
coast.

310 pm update... The above mentioned cold front should be east
of our forecast area by mid to late morning Saturday. In its
wake, cooler and generally drier air will gradually filter in
from the northwest. Although some post-frontal lower clouds are
expected to linger for a time Saturday morning in the
Alleghenies and portions of the northern tier, most areas should
see a trend towards partly-mostly sunny skies by midday-early
afternoon. Afternoon highs will be cooler than recent days,
particularly over the northern mountains, with highs ranging
from the lower 50s in these areas, to the upper 60s in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

Saturday night looks mostly clear and colder, with perhaps some
mid to higher-level cloudiness edging into our southern tier
counties towards daybreak. Overnight lows will range from around
30 in the northern mountains, to close to 40 in the Susquehanna
Valley.

Sunday will be a seasonably chilly day, with sunshine fading
behind thickening clouds from south to north. Most model
solutions are suggesting that an area of light rain over the
mid-Atlantic will stay south of the Commonwealth, so we`ve gone
ahead and kept the forecast dry for now. Sunday`s highs should
range from the upper 40s-mid 50s.

Sunday night, we`ll likely see showers on the increase,
particularly up over the northern tier, closer to the best warm
advection forcing, ahead of a Great Lakes frontal complex.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s over the northern
mountains, to the mid 40s in the Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active weather pattern for the long term with general
troughiness to our west at first, then heights rise.

A complicated/wavy front moves across the state Mon into
Tuesday. Timing of the waves along the front preclude making
much more than a broad bell curve around Monday night. Looks
pretty cold for mid week with a sfc high overhead. After a brief
recovery to near normality (for 2020), a true Canadian airmass
moves down for later in the week. It may not have enough punch
to completely move through, though, given the minor rise in
upper heights. Still, it is worth knocking the temps down a
little from Thursday into Friday. There are a few times in the
long term when temps get cool enough to perhaps make any showers
mix with snow in the higher elevations of the north. It is
October.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not a lot of change for the 00Z TAFS.

Best support for showers lifting north of the area overnight.

Dewpoints high for late October, but not really higher than
yesterday or earlier today.

Thus expect best chance of showers overnight and early Saturday
will be across the far west. This area will have the highest
chance of lower CIGS etc.

I slowed down the gusty winds for the east on Saturday by a few
hours. While a wind shift may occur earlier, the winds take
some time to pick up, as the cooler airmass really is not real
deep.

Earlier discussion below.

During the pre-dawn hours, as a cold front approaches the region
from the northwest, lower conditions (including some light rain
showers) will first spread into KBFD and KJST (05-07z), before
reaching KAOO and KUNV by 08-09z. The best potential for IFR
ceiling bases will be at KBFD and KJST, with fuel alternate-MVFR
restrictions more likely at KAOO/KUNV.

While unrestricted conditions are anticipated for much of the
night at KIPT, KMDT, and KLNS, some lower clouds and fog may
develop near sunrise (after 09-10z), with a brief period of IFR
possible.

Saturday, as the aforementioned cold front moves to the east of
our terminal sites, any early morning lower clouds should have a
tendency to dissipate, with VFR again becoming dominant by
13-15z. Lower clouds may hang on a bit longer at KBFD/KJST,
owing to upslope conditions and lake enhancement, within a low-
level NW flow regime.

Locally gusty S-SW winds may diminish at times tonight, before
turning gusty again out of the NW post-frontal passage on
Saturday.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR.

Sun night-Tue...Restrictions likely in lower clouds and
and periodic light rain.

Wed...Mostly VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Altoona set a record high temperature of 78F today, breaking
the old record of 75F set in 1975.

Bradford set a record high temperature of 78F today, breaking
the old record of 75F set in 1975.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Travis/Gutierrez
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Martin
CLIMATE...