Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202258 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 658 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front has pushed to the southeast and will allow high pressure to build into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Pennsylvania will be on the northern periphery of a building subtropical ridge later this week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Still pretty breezy as the dry air pushes in from the west. The threat of showers/storms has ended across the SE as the front has cleared them out. Secondary boundary (seen easily on CCX and BGM radars) with more-northerly wind behind it is inching southward thru the nrn mtns. Cloud shield is solid over the far NW and this shield is expected to slide E/SE. The edge of the ovc coverage will likely not get far past AOO/UNV/IPT, but much of the night could be cloudy in the NW half/third of the area under the steep subsidence inversion. This would keep it a little milder than going mins, but we will only nudge them a deg for now. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure and associated low-pwat air mass will build into the region from the Grt Lks Tuesday, resulting in a high confidence forecast of fair and cool weather. Ensemble mean 850mb temps support highs from only the low 60s over the northern mountains, to around 70F across the Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will likely result in another day of fair weather Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a late day shower over the western counties associated with an approaching warm front. 00Z NAEFS indicates Pennsylvania will be on the northern periphery of a building subtropical ridge late this week into next weekend. Shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge will bring back the daily chance of convection. However, bulk of med range guidance supports a brief period of fair weather Friday, as drier air builds in behind a Thursday PM cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mostly VFR cigs except for isold MVFR cigs KLNS through 21z and MVFR cigs from lake cloudiness localized to the Northwest Mountains tonight. VFR and becoming mostly clear elsewhere this evening through Tuesday. Winds from the SW/W to 10-20 with gusts to 20-30 mph tapering off to around 10 mph a few hours after sunset. .Outlook... Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Thu-Fri...Isolated to scattered restrictions possible from potential showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

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