Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291739 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 139 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High clouds moving over the northern tier ahead of the weak cold front near Lake Ontario. Elsewhere, sunny skies abound for the rest of the Commonwealth. High temperatures today will warm nicely to the low to mid 80s, which is about average for this time of year. There is still the possibility of a stray shower or thunderstorm this afternoon 1) over parts of northern tier ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis. Any shower that does occur should be rather weak and QPF amounts will be minimal. The key takeaway is that the majority of CPA will see mostly sunny and dry wx today. Low temperatures tonight will provide one last night of cool refreshing weather before the warmer temperatures arrive. Tonight, temperatures will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The dry and summer-like weather continues for Thursday. With a moderating pattern overhead and relatively high pressure, expect plentiful sunshine shining through beautiful blue sky with afternoon cumulus clouds. Southerly flow will help to usher in warmer temperatures, with highs tomorrow climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity, however, will be quite low so heat indices will not be of too much concern. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be in the lower to mid 60s, warmer than previous nights. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1 pm/17 UTC Wednesday update... In the big picture, PA will continue to reside near the southern edge of the westerlies into next week. Upper ridging is progged to hold firm over the middle of the country and over the southern states, while mean upper- level troughs continue to hold their positions from western Canada into the Pacific Northwest, and also from eastern Canada into the Northeast. Generally, this should keep the most persistent heat well to the south and west of the Commonwealth. Also, with the northern stream jet not far removed, frontal passages and associated bouts of showers/thunderstorms can be anticipated about every 2-3 days. As for the daily sensible weather, after a hot and humid day on Friday, our highest confidence period of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated from Friday night into Saturday, as a surface cold front is slowly pushed southeastward through the region by a progressive mid-level short-wave. More uncertainty creeps into the forecast from Sunday into next week, as the aforementioned boundary is forecast to ultimately stall out in an east to west fashion. However, the exact latitude that this happens is yet to be determined. For now, we`ve accepted the NBM idea that the highest chances for showers/embedded thunderstorms will be over south-central PA, with progressively lower chances to the north. As alluded to earlier, no sustained heat looks to be in store. After a brief hot and steamy period Friday (highs ranging from the mid 80s-lower 90s), daily highs will drop back mostly into the upper 70s-mid 80s range later this weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Widespread VFR conds were found at 18z. Cumulus clouds continue to build out there, and this should continue through this aftn. A few showers are showing up on radar over NW PA. Cannot rule out an isolated SHRA/TSRA this aftn into this eve, mainly across the north and east, but most locations should remain rain-free. Skies will clear tonight and winds will diminish. There could be a bit of valley fog once again, but most locations will remain VFR through the night. Thursday will feature plentiful sunshine and widespread VFR conds. Outlook... Fri...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. A chance of a shower or storm late across the west. Fri night-Sat...More numerous showers and storms expected with mainly MVFR reductions. Sun-Mon...Improvement north, with lingering showers possible south.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Buvala NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Buvala SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Buvala LONG TERM...Jurewicz AVIATION...Evanego

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