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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 111209
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
809 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front over Northwestern PA early this morning
will drift southeast across the state today, possibly
accompanied and followed by a brief shower or two.

Breezy, cool, and mainly dry weather conditions will follow
through the midweek period. A slow moderating trend in
temperatures will occur late this week and through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Frost advisory has expired.

Early morning Microphysics Satellite Imagery shows an area of
altocu and cirrus sliding east across the SE half of PA at
0830Z, while a second area of clouds followed the aforementioned
Cfront across Central and NE Ohio.

Forecast cloud, and mixing layer depth is quite high today -
extending up to 9-10 KFT AGL. Will maintain continuity and
include low pops for generally isolated and brief showers along
and in the wake of the cfront across Central and NW PA.
Latest 00/06Z guidance and high res EFS continue to indicate
that the best chance of showers will be during the afternoon
hours across the Susq Valley and points east, where some modest
pre-frontal heating and perhaps a few hundred J/KG of MU cape
will occur.

High temps today will be anywhere from 2 to 8 deg F higher than
Monday`s, but these readings will still be 6-7F below normal for
the second week of May.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Clear to partly cloudy conditions expected for tonight with
lows in the low 30s to around 40F. A northwest wind averaging
6-11 mph (with some gusts into the teens) should preclude frost
formation with readings bottoming close to freezing over the
western Alleghenies.

High pressure builds in for midweek yielding dry weather, with
more mild high temperatures. Clear nights and calm winds will
yield some chilly nights during the midweek, especially
Wednesday night/Thursday morning as temperatures will dip into
the mid to low 30s. Areas of frost are possible Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECENS and GEFS both support generally dry weather and light
winds Friday through Monday, as large surface high drifts across
the region. However, a lingering upper level trough over the
northeast CONUS will result in the chance of widely scattered
diurnal convection. Have painted slightly higher POPS Friday,
when the bulk of guidance tracks a decent shortwave over the
area.

Ensemble plumes indicate near seasonable temperatures Friday
through Sunday, then possibly a slight warming trend by Monday,
as surface high passes off the coast and warmer return flow
ensues.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 12Z TAF package, I did add some MVFR CIGS late tonight
at BFD and JST, based on another wind shift line and guidance.
Otherwise not much change from recent forecast.

Still a lot of mid level clds across the area, been watching
the VAD wind profile to see how cloud heights are. I did not
go outside to look for ISS, given the clouds.

Earlier discussion below.

There could be an isolated shower across the southwest early
this afternoon. There could be another batch of showers form
late today across the far north.

Winds will pick up by late morning.

Aside from BFD and JST later tonight, expect VFR conditions
today into Wednesday, given the dry airmass.

Outlook...

Wed...VFR. Windy.

Thu...VFR/no sig wx.

Fri-Sat...VFR. A few showers possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The record low temperature for Thursday morning (5/13) in State
College is 30 degrees. With widespread chilly temperatures
dipping into the mid and low 30s on Thursday morning, it is
possible that we may tie or break this record this week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Gutierrez
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...