Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221200 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the state today, bringing fairly widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler and much less humid air will move in for Friday and will last through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 AM revels little cloud cover over srn half of the state. This should be good for destabilization and support the MRGL risk of both SVR and ExRain for today. Cold frontal position fixed by wind shift and slightly lowered pressures is roughly from YNG to BFD and ELM. The front should sink southward today. Radar echoes over the NW counties are light and only a few hundreths should fall there this AM. As the front goes south, little rain is expected there after 10 AM. Radar looks ominous over SErn OH with a bow echo headed this way, but the cloud tops are warming per latest IR pics. But, this area likely contains a minor MCV which may be the upper forcing necessary to trigger the aftn SHRA/TSRA we are expecting. Kept POPs high across the central and srn counties as the shower activity should be along and south of the front. WPC has southern half of central PA in MRGL risk of excessive rainfall with a SGLT risk nosing in from PIT to UNV. But, the heavy rainfall ystdy was over PBZ`s area, and almost no rain fell in this area of Central PA ystdy. Not anticipating widespread flooding issues, but some isold minor flooding is possible if more than one of these fast-moving storms rolls over the same spot. Maxes remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The NW should clear up later today to get nicer than the low crud and light rain of the morning. They could stay just a deg or two cooler if the junk does not clear out as quickly as expected. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Latest guidance suggests front stalls along or just south of Mason Dixon line tonight and Friday. This would bring drier conditions to most of central PA with the exception of the far southern tier which would hold onto slight chc of SHRA. Conditions should improve over all areas Friday afternoon, with dry weather lasting through the upcoming weekend in most areas. A little fog is possible in the nrn tier valleys, but && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An extensive area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to central PA this weekend. Heading into next week, the question will be how quickly can return flow moisture make it back into the area? GFS is rather bullish early next week in contrast to the ECMWF which favors continuation of dry wx. These models seem to agree that developing southeast low level flow may advect clouds into the area which could result in lower highs Mon-Tue. Given the uncertainty, the day 4-8 NDFD forecast closely follows the National Blend of Models (NBM) which shows a gradual increase in low chance POPs Mon-Tue. Temperatures over the weekend will be near to slightly below average with pleasant and warm afternoons and comfortably cool nights. Another brief hint of autumnlike air with September right around the corner. As mentioned above, could see temps trend a bit lower early next week before moderating through midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFS sent. Showers over the northwest mountains now falling apart. Earlier discussion below. Adusted TAFS several times here as of 6 AM. Few showers trying to move into the northwest mountains. Cold front over western New York, will push into the northwest soon. Will take some time to move south of the area this evening. Thus expect some showers and storms later this afternoon and evening. After early Friday, looking at mainly dry weather with VFR conditions at least into Sunday. .Outlook... Fri...AM fog poss. Chance of showers southern 1/4 early. Sat-Mon...AM fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Martin SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin

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