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000
FXUS61 KCTP 221200
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the state today, bringing fairly
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler and much
less humid air will move in for Friday and will last through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM revels little cloud cover over srn half of the state. This
should be good for destabilization and support the MRGL risk of
both SVR and ExRain for today. Cold frontal position fixed by
wind shift and slightly lowered pressures is roughly from YNG to
BFD and ELM. The front should sink southward today. Radar echoes
over the NW counties are light and only a few hundreths should
fall there this AM. As the front goes south, little rain is
expected there after 10 AM. Radar looks ominous over SErn OH
with a bow echo headed this way, but the cloud tops are warming
per latest IR pics. But, this area likely contains a minor MCV
which may be the upper forcing necessary to trigger the aftn
SHRA/TSRA we are expecting.

Kept POPs high across the central and srn counties as the shower
activity should be along and south of the front. WPC has
southern half of central PA in MRGL risk of excessive rainfall
with a SGLT risk nosing in from PIT to UNV. But, the heavy
rainfall ystdy was over PBZ`s area, and almost no rain fell in
this area of Central PA ystdy. Not anticipating widespread
flooding issues, but some isold minor flooding is possible if
more than one of these fast-moving storms rolls over the same
spot.

Maxes remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The NW should clear
up later today to get nicer than the low crud and light rain of
the morning. They could stay just a deg or two cooler if the
junk does not clear out as quickly as expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Latest guidance suggests front stalls along or just south of
Mason Dixon line tonight and Friday. This would bring drier
conditions to most of central PA with the exception of the far
southern tier which would hold onto slight chc of SHRA.
Conditions should improve over all areas Friday afternoon, with
dry weather lasting through the upcoming weekend in most areas.
A little fog is possible in the nrn tier valleys, but

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An extensive area of high pressure will bring fair and dry
weather to central PA this weekend. Heading into next week, the
question will be how quickly can return flow moisture make it
back into the area? GFS is rather bullish early next week in
contrast to the ECMWF which favors continuation of dry wx. These
models seem to agree that developing southeast low level flow
may advect clouds into the area which could result in lower
highs Mon-Tue. Given the uncertainty, the day 4-8 NDFD forecast
closely follows the National Blend of Models (NBM) which shows a
gradual increase in low chance POPs Mon-Tue.

Temperatures over the weekend will be near to slightly below
average with pleasant and warm afternoons and comfortably cool
nights. Another brief hint of autumnlike air with September
right around the corner. As mentioned above, could see temps
trend a bit lower early next week before moderating through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z TAFS sent.

Showers over the northwest mountains now falling apart.

Earlier discussion below.

Adusted TAFS several times here as of 6 AM.

Few showers trying to move into the northwest mountains.

Cold front over western New York, will push into the northwest
soon. Will take some time to move south of the area this
evening.

Thus expect some showers and storms later this afternoon and
evening.

After early Friday, looking at mainly dry weather with VFR
conditions at least into Sunday.

.Outlook...

Fri...AM fog poss. Chance of showers southern 1/4 early.

Sat-Mon...AM fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Martin
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin