Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 111209 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 809 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front over Northwestern PA early this morning will drift southeast across the state today, possibly accompanied and followed by a brief shower or two. Breezy, cool, and mainly dry weather conditions will follow through the midweek period. A slow moderating trend in temperatures will occur late this week and through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Frost advisory has expired. Early morning Microphysics Satellite Imagery shows an area of altocu and cirrus sliding east across the SE half of PA at 0830Z, while a second area of clouds followed the aforementioned Cfront across Central and NE Ohio. Forecast cloud, and mixing layer depth is quite high today - extending up to 9-10 KFT AGL. Will maintain continuity and include low pops for generally isolated and brief showers along and in the wake of the cfront across Central and NW PA. Latest 00/06Z guidance and high res EFS continue to indicate that the best chance of showers will be during the afternoon hours across the Susq Valley and points east, where some modest pre-frontal heating and perhaps a few hundred J/KG of MU cape will occur. High temps today will be anywhere from 2 to 8 deg F higher than Monday`s, but these readings will still be 6-7F below normal for the second week of May.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Clear to partly cloudy conditions expected for tonight with lows in the low 30s to around 40F. A northwest wind averaging 6-11 mph (with some gusts into the teens) should preclude frost formation with readings bottoming close to freezing over the western Alleghenies. High pressure builds in for midweek yielding dry weather, with more mild high temperatures. Clear nights and calm winds will yield some chilly nights during the midweek, especially Wednesday night/Thursday morning as temperatures will dip into the mid to low 30s. Areas of frost are possible Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ECENS and GEFS both support generally dry weather and light winds Friday through Monday, as large surface high drifts across the region. However, a lingering upper level trough over the northeast CONUS will result in the chance of widely scattered diurnal convection. Have painted slightly higher POPS Friday, when the bulk of guidance tracks a decent shortwave over the area. Ensemble plumes indicate near seasonable temperatures Friday through Sunday, then possibly a slight warming trend by Monday, as surface high passes off the coast and warmer return flow ensues. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the 12Z TAF package, I did add some MVFR CIGS late tonight at BFD and JST, based on another wind shift line and guidance. Otherwise not much change from recent forecast. Still a lot of mid level clds across the area, been watching the VAD wind profile to see how cloud heights are. I did not go outside to look for ISS, given the clouds. Earlier discussion below. There could be an isolated shower across the southwest early this afternoon. There could be another batch of showers form late today across the far north. Winds will pick up by late morning. Aside from BFD and JST later tonight, expect VFR conditions today into Wednesday, given the dry airmass. Outlook... Wed...VFR. Windy. Thu...VFR/no sig wx. Fri-Sat...VFR. A few showers possible. && .CLIMATE... The record low temperature for Thursday morning (5/13) in State College is 30 degrees. With widespread chilly temperatures dipping into the mid and low 30s on Thursday morning, it is possible that we may tie or break this record this week. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert/Gutierrez LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...

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