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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 291739
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
139 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern
through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to
begin the Independence Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High clouds moving over the northern tier ahead of the weak
cold front near Lake Ontario. Elsewhere, sunny skies abound for
the rest of the Commonwealth. High temperatures today will warm
nicely to the low to mid 80s, which is about average for this
time of year.

There is still the possibility of a stray shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon 1) over parts of northern tier ahead of a weak
cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of
the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis. Any shower
that does occur should be rather weak and QPF amounts will be
minimal.

The key takeaway is that the majority of CPA will see mostly
sunny and dry wx today.

Low temperatures tonight will provide one last night of cool
refreshing weather before the warmer temperatures arrive.
Tonight, temperatures will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The dry and summer-like weather continues for Thursday. With a
moderating pattern overhead and relatively high pressure, expect
plentiful sunshine shining through beautiful blue sky with
afternoon cumulus clouds. Southerly flow will help to usher in
warmer temperatures, with highs tomorrow climbing into the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity, however, will be quite low so
heat indices will not be of too much concern. Low temperatures
tomorrow night will be in the lower to mid 60s, warmer than
previous nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 pm/17 UTC Wednesday update... In the big picture, PA will
continue to reside near the southern edge of the westerlies into
next week. Upper ridging is progged to hold firm over the middle
of the country and over the southern states, while mean upper-
level troughs continue to hold their positions from western
Canada into the Pacific Northwest, and also from eastern Canada
into the Northeast. Generally, this should keep the most
persistent heat well to the south and west of the Commonwealth.
Also, with the northern stream jet not far removed, frontal
passages and associated bouts of showers/thunderstorms can be
anticipated about every 2-3 days.

As for the daily sensible weather, after a hot and humid day on
Friday, our highest confidence period of showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated from Friday night into Saturday, as
a surface cold front is slowly pushed southeastward through the
region by a progressive mid-level short-wave. More uncertainty
creeps into the forecast from Sunday into next week, as the
aforementioned boundary is forecast to ultimately stall out in
an east to west fashion. However, the exact latitude that this
happens is yet to be determined. For now, we`ve accepted the NBM
idea that the highest chances for showers/embedded thunderstorms
will be over south-central PA, with progressively lower chances
to the north.

As alluded to earlier, no sustained heat looks to be in store.
After a brief hot and steamy period Friday (highs ranging from
the mid 80s-lower 90s), daily highs will drop back mostly into
the upper 70s-mid 80s range later this weekend and into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread VFR conds were found at 18z. Cumulus clouds continue
to build out there, and this should continue through this aftn.
A few showers are showing up on radar over NW PA. Cannot rule
out an isolated SHRA/TSRA this aftn into this eve, mainly
across the north and east, but most locations should remain
rain-free.

Skies will clear tonight and winds will diminish. There could
be a bit of valley fog once again, but most locations will
remain VFR through the night.

Thursday will feature plentiful sunshine and widespread VFR
conds.

Outlook...

Fri...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. A chance of a shower or
storm late across the west.

Fri night-Sat...More numerous showers and storms expected with
mainly MVFR reductions.

Sun-Mon...Improvement north, with lingering showers possible
south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Buvala
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Buvala
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Buvala
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Evanego