Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170013 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 813 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and gusty conditions will continue today as the large cyclone over eastern Canada only slowly releases its grip on the region. A weakening storm system will slide to the south of the state on Saturday with high pressure in control for the weekend and the start of next week. A new storm system could affect the state during the Tuesday- Wednesday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... KBFD is the only METAR in my CWA still reporting flurries. Still breezy in most locations with some 25 mph gusts here on the roof in the past hour and similar gusts mirrored in METARs. Stratus has shrunk as well, with overcast skies still covering the northwest mountains and parts of the north central mountains. Will shut down the mentions of flurries this evening in the north. 8H temps rise overnight to near 0C in the far SW by sunrise. But, coldness continues. Temps should drop to the mid teens up north once the bulk of the clouds go away, and still get into the L20s in the south before any increase in high clouds begins in the morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Low pressure circulating over the mid-section of the country is going to slide pretty much straight east and most if not all of the precip will remain S of the area. However, recent runs have nudged the precip (snow) into the Laurels where it had previously appeared that it would skirt the local area. Put high PoPs and low SF num in Somerset Co, but little or none for Cambria and Bedford as a prevailing westerly is not good for snow in Bedford, and Cambria probably just too far north for accums. Some worry for FZRA is there, but the soundings do look snowy at this point, withe the 0C line just south of the border. Higher clouds will affect the southern tier through the day, and likely keep temps below guidance. The north should be mostly sunny and could eclipse guidance there. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main storm of concern looks to be the one that is made to enter the eastern US Tuesday and continue into mid week. There`s still much disagreement in the evolution of the surface low. The GEFS and ECENS agree in keeping the cyclone south of PA with the best chance of precipitation being over the southern 1/3 to 1/2 of the region. Temps aloft will be marginal, at least until the storm starts to organize off the coast. This suggests that during the day with temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40, there is a good chance that rain will complicate the PTYPE forecast. Temperatures are trending colder, however the latest EC and GEFS M climate and standardized anomalies are taking the best QPF south and east of the Mason Dixon. Precipitation type challenges should also be exacerbated if precipitation rates are not robust which the models are hinting to be the case as the storm could be slow to evolve and not really becoming strong until it`s off the coast. So there is considerable variability in next weeks system. The larger picture has the NAEFSBC advertising the Greenland block that has led to the first two weeks of March being cold and rather stormy in parts of the NE, to finally begin breaking down and the pattern becoming more mobile. Below normal temps are forecast to persist though mid week with a moderating trend or a return to more normal readings slated to return for the end of the week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Satellite loop at 00Z showing lake effect stratocu still covering the northwest mountains of Pa. However, arrival of high pressure ridge will bring clearing skies and diminishing wind to the entire area this evening. Linear extrapolation from satellite imagery suggest clearing at KBFD by 03Z-04Z. A weak area of low pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania Saturday, possibly nipping KJST/KAOO with a period of light snow during late morning/early afternoon. Based on latest model output, believe the odds of vis reductions at KJST/KAOO are low, so have kept the forecast as VFR for now. Elsewhere, model data supports a high confidence of VFR conditions Saturday. Outlook... Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/snow possible, mainly southern Pa. Wed...Snow possible, mainly southern Pa.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...La Corte/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.