Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181943 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 343 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region tonight with light winds and clear skies. This will lead to the frost and freezing temperatures across much of Central PA. Temperatures will then moderate to above normal to start next week. Rain associated with Tropical Storm Nestor may affect southern parts of the region on Sunday...depending on the track of the system. The next likely chance of rain will be Monday night and Tuesday with a frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Surface pressure ridge building into the region from the west provide nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions overnight. Expecting light winds and clearing skies will run with current frost advys and freeze warnings for the parts of the area where the growing season in still active. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Saturday looks like lots of sunshine, a light SE wind developing, and temperatures rebounding to nearly normal. Perfect for outdoor activities, esp leaf peeping. Foliage seems to be near peak here locally, but lots of leaves just got blown down Thurs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday to the north of Tropical Storm Nestor forecast to track through the Deep South and then off the NC coast. The main forecast question remains if/how far north? precipitation can reach into central PA early Sunday. A blend of the HREF and NBM support increasing precip probs to around 60% across the far southern tier zones along the PA/MD border. Light rain should exit the CWA Sunday evening followed by clearing under high pressure Sunday night into Monday. Ribbon of anomalous PWATs ahead of next frontal system will likely bring moderate rain to the sometime between Monday night Tuesday night. GFS is faster vs. ECMWF so a compromise is favored for timing. Latest model trends indicate a more progressive system which would keep rainfall amounts somewhat in-check. The best chance for heavy rain (prob of 1"/12hr) is focused over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the CWA. Mainly dry weather should follow for mid to late week. Blocking high over Greenland seems to allow for a potentially stronger system to evolve over the Eastern U.S. next weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strato cu clouds dissipating across much of the fly zone as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Newly named Tropical Storm Nestor in the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to track to the NC/VA coast by Sunday. At this time, affects on PA should be minimal, but is something to monitor if flying over southern PA and points south. .Outlook... Sat...AM valley fog. Sun...Light rain possible over southern PA. Mon...AM valley fog possible. Tue...Rain/low cigs possible. Wed...Rain showers/low cigs possible mainly AM. Improving PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ028-045- 046-049>053-056>059-063>066. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ019- 025>027-034>036. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Gartner NEAR TERM...Gartner SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Gartner

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