Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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558 FXUS61 KCTP 232042 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 442 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving area of low pressure will begin to affect the region overnight, and the weather will remain unsettled for most of the upcoming workweek. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the eastern U.S. bringing the potential for showers and a continuation of below normal temperatures into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SE flow very gradually moistening up the boundary layer this afternoon as surface high slides off the East Coast. Dewpoints have climbed into the 30s even with mixing layer up to around 5000ft. Maxes will peak in the upper 60s most locales. There is some haze being reported at KSEG at 19z - this is from a plume of smoke from a prescribed burn in Dauphin County. Rain will likely reach my SWRN zones around or just before midnight and continue to slowly spread NE into the Central Mountains through Tuesday morning. Lows fall into the 40s tonight, with upper 30s along the northern and northeast counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A slow moving upper low will crawl eastward on Tuesday, reaching the central Appalachians/SRN Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. With the upper low weakening, the surface reflection is progged to be a rather anemic low which will lead to a forecast of high POPs but generally light QPF. Worded forecast for periods of mainly light rain overspreading the entire forecast area before the day is over. Temps will stay cool as the light precip adiabatically cools the lower levels, so highs will struggle just into the 50s. Main area of precip swings across mainly eastern sections Tue night keeping PoPs high before tapering off from west to east overnight. Another upper low reinforces showery weather heading into Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Light rain is expected to continue into Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night into Thursday. The Thursday night to Saturday period may be somewhat unsettled with several disturbances aloft (embedded in the mean upper trough) move quickly through the region, offering potential/low confidence for rain showers. The departure of the upper trough will likely promote a drying trend by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will average near to slightly below average during most of the period before trending noticeably warmer into the first week of May. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure just east of Pennsylvania will ensure VFR conditions across central Pa through this evening. The only possible exception may be at KIPT early this evening. Tracking a plume of smoke from a prescribed burns in Dauphin/Lebanon counties, which could briefly lower vis at KIPT through about 22Z. Expect deteriorating flying conditions from SW to NE tonight, as low pressure approaches from the southeast states. Biggest impacts will be over the Laurel Highlands tonight and the western half much of Tuesday before working into the east later in the day. Rain will likely reach SWRN zones around or just before midnight and continue to slowly spread NE into the Central Mountains through Tuesday morning. Bukfit soundings indicate there will be southeasterly gusts of 15-20kts this afternoon in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO, with slightly lighter winds further north and east. Winds pickup again on Tue. Outlook... Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely. Wed...AM rain/low cigs likely, then improving. Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible, mainly west. SAT...Showers/cig reductions possible, mainly NW.
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&& .CLIMATE... April 2018 currently ranks in the top 10 coldest on record (through the 22nd). Seasonable temperatures are expected through the end of the month which should help to balance the cold start. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald/RXR CLIMATE...

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