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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 231653
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1253 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Breezy & warmer with low humidity
-Periods of rain showers tonight through Wednesday afternoon
-Rain-free late this week with a renewed frost/freeze risk early
 Thursday and Friday mornings

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sensible weather for the rest of today will feature low
humidity and breezy conditions (wind gusts 20-30 mph from the
south/southwest), with sunshine mixing with/fading behind
increasing high/mid clouds and mild temperatures in the 60-70F
range. The gusty wind+low RH combo does raise some fire wx
concerns (see fire wx section, SPS and HWOCTP for details).

Hires ensemble guidance brings rain showers associated with
leading cold front/sfc trough into the far NW mtns by this
evening before expanding coverage across the rest of central PA
overnight into early Wednesday morning. QPF remains on the light
side (a few hundreths in the LSV up to ~0.25" in the NW) given
rather unimpressive moisture return evidenced by mean pwat
values below 1 inch.

Low temps tonight in the low 40s/50s are +10-15 degrees warmer
than the last two nights (no frost) thanks to an active
southwest to westerly breeze along with clouds/rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main upper level shortwave trough swings through the area
early Wednesday, followed by a secondary cold frontal passage
during the afternoon. Latest hires model guidance shows
scattered low-topped diurnal convective showers developing thru
the afternoon with the potential to produce locally gusty winds.
SPC continues to indicate non-severe t-storm probs over the
southeastern portion of the CWA for Day 2 where HREF shows a few
hundred J/kg of CAPE. Highs on Wednesday will trend cooler and
range from the upper 40s in the northern tier to mid 60s in the
southeast. Expect rain shower activity to fade quickly toward
sunset/into early Wednesday night or shortly after 00Z Thu.

1030+mb Canadian high pressure building over the region
Wednesday night below normal pwats will bring dry wx/rain free
conditions into late week. The main focus will return to
potential for frost/freeze conditions which remain highlighted
in the HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A chilly but tranquil start to the extended period Thursday
morning with widespread freeze/frosts expected from sprawling
Canadian sfc high pressure. Plenty of sunshine is expected
throughout the day to help rebound temps through the 50s to
lower 60s.

The sfc high drifts off of the eastern seaboard by Friday
morning, with another chilly night expected (especially over
eastern areas) as moderating return flow begins Friday morning.
As a result, milder temps are expected by Friday afternoon
along with a gradual increase in mid to high clouds, leading
to the next chance of rain Friday night into Saturday.

The weekend appears somewhat unsettled with the warm sector
struggling to overspread central PA. It won`t be raining all the
time, but a shower cannot be ruled out from the Friday night
through Sunday afternoon period. Upper ridging may eventually
win out by Sunday night and Monday for drier and warmer
conditions during that time, and highs could surge through the
70s and perhaps exceed 80F over the south on Monday afternoon.


Both the EPS and GEFS indicate the warm front will lift north
of the region by Sunday and Monday, resulting in markedly
warmer and more humid conditions with scattered PM convection
possible. Mean progged 850mb temps south of the warm front are
around 12C, supportive of highs in the 75-80F range.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions will persist throughout the rest of
the daylight hours today with mainly a thin layer of bkn high
clouds expected to be present over the airspace.

Winds will be gusty out of the SW through late this afternoon,
ahead of a cold front. Gusts between 20 to 25kts will occur.

Cloud bases lowering through the mid levels across the Wrn Mtns
of PA (and down to 8-12 kft agl after 19Z) will be followed by
light starting across the NW Mtns late this afternoon near 21-23Z
and slowly progress across the area through Wednesday.

At this time, model soundings and the bulk of guidance suggests
all airfields to stay above VFR thresholds. If any airfields do
manage to drop towards high- end MVFR cigs, KBFD will be the
most likely after 22Z within stratiform rain. Highest confidence
in MVFR cigs will be after 06Z Wednesday behind the passage of
the cold front and in conjunction with scattered showers
remaining over central PA.

Outlook...

Wed...RA early with some MVFR cigs possible, Cloudy PM with
lingering showers and periods of MVFR Cigs and Vsbys.

Thu...Clearing as high pressure builds into the area.

Fri...Mainly dry, but increasing clouds late.

Sat...Rain moves in W early AM and continues throughout the day
with restrictions possible. TSRA possible W PA in PM hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low humidity (20-30% minRH) and breezy conditions (20-30 mph wind
gusts from the south/southwest) will result in an elevated risk
of wildfire spread this afternoon. However, dead fuel moisture
values per latest PABOF/DCNR sitrep and ongoing Spring green-up
are both limiting factors offsetting the wind+RH fire wx risk to
a large extent in CPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Lambert/Steinbugl