Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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030 FXUS61 KCTP 080205 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1005 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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* Cold front stalls overhead tonight and lies there for a couple of days. * Thunderstorms will be focused primarily over the southeastern half of the Commonwealth on Tuesday. * Seasonably warm and muggy for the rest of the week with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Small clusters of storms still going along/SE of I-81. Expect these to continue to be strong for another couple of hours with DCAPE still up over 1000J and effective shear of around 30KTs per latest SPC mesoanalysis. The storms over the SW have diminished to rain. Coverage of showers fades overnight with a good signal for post frontal low clouds over the western mtns and areas of fog across the central and eastern valleys. Another warm and muggy night in most locations with low temps in the 65-75F range.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Max temps drop 5-10 degrees behind the front over the western 1/2 of the CWA on Tuesday. The latest guidance shows the front stalling out or becoming quasi stationary over CPA by 00Z Wed. Latest D2 outlooks from SPC and WPC include an upgrade to slight risk for severe storms(level 2 out of 5) and excessive rainfall (2 out of 4) mainly for areas to the southeast of the frontal zone where there will be plenty of MLCAPE and 70+ dewpoints. Tall or thin profiles suggest heavy rain potential along with water-loading/severe downdraft potential. Latest CAMs depict scattered thunderstorms congealing into a line of storms Tuesday afternoon with an attendant increased risk for damaging straight line winds. Ahead of the rain, there also remains some concern for max HX values to reach or exceed the century mark in the LSV Tuesday afternoon. A heat advy may be needed; for now we coordinated with PHI to not include any of the Lehigh/Lower Susq zones but will continue to highlight in the HWO. Best odds for a thunderstorm on Wednesday remains along the MD line where the best moisture/instability overlay will exist. At this time, t-storms are expected to be non-severe with heavy rain risk shifting to the south of the Mason Dixon line. Max/min temps remain seasonably warm for early/mid July. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PoPs rise again Thursday with the approach of another shortwave trough. The forecast for Friday and the weekend is more uncertain, with some guidance suggesting a break in the unsettled pattern, and others suggesting active weather continues. An active pattern would favor continue heat/humidity while a quieter pattern could support the intrusion of lower dewpoints and more refreshing conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated showers and storms are diminishing, but will continue to briefly affect many TAF through about 04Z/8th ahead of a slow moving cold front. Patchy fog is possible at all TAF sites late tonight and Tuesday morning. However, cloud cover and a light breeze from the west later tonight will likely negate a significant threat for widespread fog. IFR/LIFR ceilings are favored for several hours at BFD and JST with MVFR likely at IPT, UNV, and AOO. A few showers could develop by midday on Tuesday, but showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread into the afternoon. Brief restrictions are possible everywhere except BFD, with storms starting in the vicinity of a line extending from JST/AOO to UNV to IPT and then moving east-southeastward and affecting MDT and LNS later in the afternoon/early evening. Outlook... Tue PM...Showers fade, fog possible across much of the region into Wednesday morning. Wed...Best chance for storms and restrictions in southern PA. Thu-Sat...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly aftn/eve. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner