Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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243 FXUS61 KCTP 160001 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 801 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty northwest winds will continue over the local area through the end of the week. Drier conditions will try to visit the region Friday night and Saturday. A weak and fast-moving system will pass by to our south later in the weekend, producing little or no precipitation for the state. A larger storm system could develop and affect the state in the middle of next week, but getting detailed with the forecast at this point is not possible. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... The center of the vort max seems to be over Centre County at 2PM. There will still be some light snow this aftn behind the best lift. The flow gets better aligned vertically and the winds should go back to a gusty rawness like yesterday. The highest gusts will be in the south, esp on the higher elevs. A short break in the -SN will then be ended as the cold pool aloft slides over and reinvigorates SHSN. Meso models have a slight Huron connection going this evening, but it is crossing the icy part of LE, and the far western tip of LO. Therefore, the moisture flux may not be as great as anticipated. This band would be along the nrn border and down into Tioga/Sullivan Counties. Will still mention some 2" accums there, but not go hog wild. The air is fairly dry, so the bases will not crash as hard as they could over the wrn mtns. Will carry just 1-2" for the Laurels overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Just some lingering SHSN in the morning up north, but the sky condition should brighten later in the morning with good downslope making it sunny in the SE. The least likely place to see sun peek through will be those along the Route 6 corridor. Winds will be just as gusty Fri as Thurs, maybe even more so. So while the sun makes it feel a little nicer, the temps will only mix up a couple kft and maxes will be in the m20s- u30s, about 5F colder than Thurs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term will see two systems move through the region over the next week. The first will be a closed upper level low which will open up into a trough as it moves into the mid atlantic Saturday afternoon. The cold air, with -5 to -10C air at 850 mb will sit over the region well into next week. Any moisture should remain south of the region which should allow the region to remain primarily dry. Moderating temperatures will allow for near normal temperatures Sunday into Tuesday. The next system will begin to move through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Still quite a variability for this system. The EC is about 6 to 12 hours slower then the GFS with the EC having the low center further east. Latest M climate tables keep the highest anomalies south of the region. However there remains the possibility of a significant early spring snowfall. The best chances will be further east, similar to the previous noreasters. The high sun angle, and moderate daytime temperatures will moderate any snowfall amounts. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold northwest flow continues this evening. As the last few nights, snow showers have shown a diurnal diminishment as the evening has progressed. However, short range HRRR shows another vorticity lobe and the core of the coldest air rotating into the region overnight. This is expected to reinvigorate snow showers, especially across the Northern Mountains and Laurel Highlands. Winds expected to stay gusty overnight. Just as with the snow, there may be a brief period where the gusty nature of the winds diminish, but gusts are again expected to pick up overnight with the snow showers. Gusty winds and improving conditions in general for Friday. However Laurels and Northern Mountains will have a tough time becoming VFR. Outlook... Fri...Mainly VFR, but lingering MVFR in the higher elevations of north and west. Sat-Mon...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. Tues...Low cigs/vsby possible in snow/mixed precip. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...DeVoir/Ceru AVIATION...Jung/Dangelo is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.