Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231859 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 259 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough over Pennsylvania this afternoon will drift to the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, allowing a ridge of surface high pressure to build into the region with fair and mainly dry weather. An upper level disturbance and backdoor cold front could bring a few brief snow showers later Saturday night and Sunday. A slow moving cold front is likely to approach from the west by the middle of next week with a plume of moisture streaming northeast ahead of it and bringing a likelihood of rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid/upper level thermal trough right over the region this afternoon, bringing an expanding area of stratocu with some isolated light snow showers flurries falling from some enhanced/thicker cloud bands drifting swd from NW and Cent PA. There could be a coating of a tenth or so at elevations above 2000ft msl late today before the cold pool drifts off to the SE and the added fuel of solar heating/destabilization of the llvls wanes. Skies will become clear to partly cloudy tonight across the ridge and valley region, while areas of bkn and shallow stratocu ceilings occur across the nrn and wrn mtns. Temps late today ranging from the L30s across the NW Mtns and laurel around 40F in the SE valleys, will dip to overnight mins in the 15-20F range over the northern and wrn mtns, and 20s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Winds will veer slightly to the NNW for Saturday with very limited cloud cover of the shallow strato cu variety as high pressure (1044 MB) over Northern Ontario ridge southeast into the region and temps warm aloft by a few to several deg C. Maxes Saturday will be about 6 or 7 deg F below normal with highs ranging from the mid 30s across the high terrain of the north and west to the L40s in the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Model guidance continues to indicate cool and dry weather Sunday, as central Pa remains in region of large scale subsidence and dry northwest flow just west of upper trough axis. Precipitation associated with lee cyclone developing in the Plains and streaking east through the mid MS/TN Valleys is forecast to remain well south of the area. By early next week, model guidance shows upper level ridging building into the region, supporting a high confidence forecast of fair weather and moderating temperatures. NAEFS and ECENS support a chance of rain showers the second half of next week associated with a dying cold front working in from the Grt Lks. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sharp shortwave trough and associated cold air aloft will create plenty of stratocu cloud for the rest of the day across central and northwestern PA airfields, though ceilings will stay mainly VFR for the remainder of the daylight hours. Some limited llvl moisture lifted into the wrn mtns later tonight should lower cloud bases into the MVFR range for at least several hours at KJST and KBFD with some flurries possible. A ridge of high pressure building into the region Saturday will bring VFR in all areas from late morning on. Outlook... Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected, though a few periods of MVFR are possible across the northern and western mtns of PA Sat night into Sunday. Wed...Thickening clouds with a likelihood of rain showers. Widespread MVFR Cigs likely developing. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.