Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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986 FXUS61 KCTP 260348 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1148 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Summer-like warm and humid weather is in store for the long weekend as high pressure sets up off the East Coast. The influx of humidity will lead to an almost-daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the southern half of the state. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Keeping slgt-low chc pops going for portions of the Laurel Highlands overnight as shortwave cresting the upper ridge inducing inverted sfc trof and pooling PW to 1.66" just south of the Mason Dixon line could produce a brief shower over the next several hours. Radar showing several showers over central WV and western VA as well as approaching Pittsburgh late this evening. Otherwise, fair weather expected elsewhere overnight. Mins will be mild with the dewpoints climbing. Some fog is possible again in the morning in the deeper northern valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Sat should be almost as warm as Friday, but more clouds will likely hold temps down a deg or two comparatively. The N and E have the best chance to stay just as warm. Humidity will increase everywhere. Dewpoints may approach 70F in the far SE. CAPEs reach above 1000J/kg, and NAM has got some points near 2000J/kg in the aftn. A weak low-level cap will probably delay shower development until after noon, but it should mix out easily. Thunder is a given with numbers like that. Shear is poor and strongest wind in the lowest 15kft is about 20kts in the aftn. Therefore, wind damage is unlikely. Wet bulb zero is also sky high. So, hail not a problem Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Saturday night into Sunday will see unsettle weather continue. However the upper level trough will shift to the east which will shift the flow to the NW. This will allow for slightly drier conditions. However, with ample low level moisture there is still a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though the best chance will be along the Mason Dixon line. The weak flow aloft on Sunday should limit Sunday afternoon convection to pulse storms. A ridge building into the mid west could tamp down moisture further. So have lowered precipitation chances on but there remains a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and early evening. Memorial Day looks to be slightly cooler but humid. The wet and humid trend for the region will continue through next week with chances for precipitation through the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR will continue with only some widely scattered valley fog. Have mentioned VCSH at JST for part of overnight as showers creep northeastward along the western front. Otherwise the sky will stay mostly clear. High pressure offshore will pump the temps and humidity up Sat and Sun. The likelihood of TS/SHRA increases on Sat and Sun. The more-likely places will be the southern half of the state. But, a stray shower is still possible in the north. Timing the convection will be difficult without a clear forcing mechanism, so smattered VCSH for the later afternoon hours in many TAFs which can be refined moving forward. I Outlook... Sun-Wed...Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms.
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&& .CLIMATE... It has been a wet May across much of the region. As of Midnight, Williamsport rainfall for the month has been 7.05 inches. This is the 6th wettest May on record, and we still have a few days to add to the total. The wettest May was 1919 with 9.91 inches of rainfall. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Tyburski SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Dangelo/RXR CLIMATE...

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