Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290547 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 147 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly build into Pennsylvania tonight and Friday allowing for some gusty winds and dry conditions, then a weak area of low pressure approaching from the midwest will pass across the state Saturday bringing scattered rain across the state. A more significant low is likely to track just north of Pennsylvania through the Eastern Great Lakes early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... The weak area of low pressure continues to move off the east coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Light drizzle will continue for the extreme south east areas of Pennsylvania before tapering off this evening. Warm advection aloft will continue to support a veil of high clouds over these areas even after the rain has ended. Fair and seasonable weather is anticipated tonight, as the upper trough shifts east of the state. However, a weak area of low pressure diving across the Ohio Valley could potentially come close enough to produce a few snow showers over Southern Somerset County, roughly a 25% chance. If snow does occur it would be brief in nature and result in a dusting at most. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Thinking for Friday remains unchanged with large scale subsidence behind the exiting trough resulting in sunny, breezy and seasonable weather Friday. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -1C to -4C translates to expected highs ranging from the mid 40s over the N Mtns, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings also support wgusts several knots above NBM guidance Friday afternoon and dewpoints a few degrees below due to fairly deep mixing. Higher fuel moistures should limit the risk of wildfire spread, despite expected wind gusts near 30kt and RH falling to around 30pct, although some parts of far southern PA could fall into the 20s. An active pattern is likely for the start of April. The first system will bring showers to much of central PA on Saturday with a quick tenth to quarter inch of rain possible during the day on Saturday. Showers linger into Saturday evening before tapering off. A mild and dry day is expected to round out the weekend on Sunday with ridging nosing in from the south east Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday looks dry to start as a west-to-east oriented boundary sags south of the Mason-Dixon Line. A wave of low pressure along that boundary will lift back into Pennsylvania early next week, bringing widespread rainfall Sunday night through Tuesday. Zonal flow aloft often promotes seasonable temperatures, but rain and clouds will likely result in temperatures trending a bit below average for the start of April with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. For the second half of the week, ensemble guidance depicts a deepening low pressure system moving into the northeast and bombing out off the New England coast. This system is likely to bring ample precipitation and strong winds. Current temperature profiles indicate some snow potential at higher elevations in the northern mountains and Laurels, but details remain highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High (> 90%) confidence in VFR conds prevailing across central PA through 06Z Saturday with widespread SKC/SCT high-level clouds for a majority of the forecast area. A SCT low-cloud deck near 5000ft AGL will clip portions of far south-central PA, with HMZ/JST being on the northward extent so have outlined these in the 06Z TAF package, but generally expect the SCT coverage to prevail through 13-14Z Friday. The main concern in the next 24 hours aviation-wise will be with respect to gusty winds (sustained 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts) at 290-330 after sunrise on Friday and continuing through the evening hours. There is also some concern for LLWS criteria being met in the 03-06Z Saturday timeframe at airfields along the southern ridges with a localized enhancement of the LLJ. The 06Z TAF package outlines this potential for AOO/JST which outline higher (40-50%) confidence for these thresholds being met, while keeping mentions out of UNV and eastward due to lower (< 20%) confidence at this time. Outlook... Sat...Rain moves in from W early AM, restrictions possible. Sun...Lingering rain across mainly SW PA early, rain moves in and becomes areawide later in the day. Mon-Tue...Widespread rain continues with some potential for TSRA Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Bowen NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Bowen SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Bowen LONG TERM...Banghoff AVIATION...NPB

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