Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160941 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 541 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and gusty conditions will continue today as the large cyclone over eastern Canada only slowly releases its grip on the region. A weakening storm system will slide out south of the state early Saturday with high pressure following for the remainder of the weekend and the start of next week. A new storm system could affect the state by the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold cyclonic flow will continue today with the usual snow showers and flurries mainly over western and northern higher elevations. Rising heights aloft will lead to drier conditions developing later this morning and this afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies over central and western areas will gradually give way to a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon. The wind will be just as gusty as yesterday, so while the sun will be a welcome addition and help make it feel a little nicer, highs will still be some some 10-20 deg colder than normal as we close in on celestial spring. Skies will be clear to scattered overnight with lows generally in the teens and 20s, or about 5-10 deg below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... A weakening wave of low pressure is expected to squirt out south of the region as the NW flow aloft remains just strong enough to shield us from the storm. Ensembles suggest a small chance of precip early in the day along the southern border. Temps aloft will be marginal so I mentioned light rain or snow. At this point no accumulations are expected. It will be a bit milder than today with highs from the mid 30s to mid 40s NW-SE, but still several deg colder than normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The main storm of concern looks to be the one that is made to enter the eastern US Tuesday and continue into mid week. There`s still much disagreement in the evolution of the surface low. The GEFS and ECENS agree in keeping the cyclone south of PA with the best chance of precipitation being over the southern 1/2 to 1/3 of the region. Temps aloft will be marginal, at least until the storm starts to organize off the coast. This suggests that during the day with temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40, there is a good chance that rain will complicate the PTYPE forecast. This will be especially true if precipitation rates are not robust which the models are hinting to be the case with the storm being slow to evolve and not really getting going until it`s off the coast. The larger picture has the NAEFSBC advertising the Greenland block that has led to the first two weeks of March being cold and rather stormy in parts of the NE, to finally begin breaking down and the pattern becoming more mobile. Below normal temps are forecast to persist though mid week with a moderating trend or a return to more normal readings slated to return for the end of the week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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TAFS updated again. Some bands of snow still. While the bands are smaller now...they are still able to produce moderate snow at times. Expect snow showers to taper off by early afternoon...if not sooner. The other issue today will be gusty winds. Expect winds to taper off some after sunset. Outlook... Sat-Mon...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. Tues...Low cigs/vsby possible in snow/mixed precip.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.