Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060218 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1018 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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A seasonably warm and mainly dry pattern will persist in Central PA through late week with a gradual uptick in temperatures. The chance of rain and thunderstorms will expand alongside a surge in heat and humidity over the weekend with the potential for excessive heat/advisory conditions in some areas by the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Late evening update. Still some isolated activity across the south, thus I added some showers and storms into the fcst until Midnight. Early evening update. Several minor updates since mid afternoon. The combination of a weak upper level low and strong afternoon heating led to isolated showers and storms. Strongest storms were near the MD border when I came in at mid afternoon. One isolated storm formed over the RDA and just moved north of the office just after 5 PM. That storm ended turning southeast and is still hanging on. Earlier discussion below. Isolated to scattered terrain-induced convection developing this afternoon over parts of the west-central Alleghenies into the WV/MD panhandles will fade into tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. We expect min temps to start making higher-lows and run a few to several degrees warmer vs. last night in the 55-65F range. Under a mainly clear sky with very light/variable winds, expect patchy fog to develop in the north central valleys again late tonight into early Friday morning. Information for Friday. Friday looks like it will be a tad less active than today. Valley fog will dissipate shortly after daybreak with early sunshine giving way to increasing multi-layered clouds from the southwest. Despite the increased cloud cover, guidance blend supports maxTs +1 to +4 degrees warmer than Thursday with readings peaking in the 80-90F range or about +2-5F above climo in most locations. Hires models support isolated diurnal/terrain-induced showers and t-storms popping up again Friday afternoon across parts of the western and central Alleghenies. The best signal for low POPs (<20% probs) was over the far NW mtns closer to lake breeze convergence/differential heating.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Minor adjustements made late this eveing. Earlier discussion below. Friday night will be mostly cloudy and noticeably warmer (+5-10F vs. Thursday night) with readings in the 60-70F range.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Late evening update. Held onto temperatures next week that were made earlier. Main change this using using forecast builder was a slight decrease in POPS in some periods next week. Hard to see any one period that will be all that wet. Saturday looking less active than it did on Monday when I last worked. Afternoon discussion below. The extended period begins with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave approaches the state on Saturday. Convection should remain scattered in nature, so many will remain dry. Mostly cloudy skies and rain chances will keep temperatures lower than days prior, though not cooler than average. The beginning of the work week will also be the start of an extended period of above normal temperatures as a ridge builds into the eastern US. There is increasing confidence that temperatures will reach 5-15F above climatology, along with an increase in humidity. Max heat index values will top out close to 100F across the lower Susquehanna Valley beginning on Tuesday and likely continuing through the end of the week. Currently, the Climate Prediction Center includes all of CPA in a moderate risk for excessive heat on Thursday and Friday. The full potential of this abnormally warm period may be reduced with the presence of any shower or thunderstorm activity. This especially may be the case from the middle of next week through the weekend as both daytime heating and the arrival of another shortwave increase shower and storm chances each afternoon.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00z update... Again, mainly unrestricted conditions are foreseen for the valid TAF period (through 00z, Saturday). Patchy fog will likely impact the river valleys of northern PA late tonight into early Friday. Based on this expectation and persistence from last night, we`ve thrown a small window for fuel alternate-IFR restrictions in just prior to daybreak at KBFD and KIPT. Friday afternoon into the early evening, widely separated thunderstorms are expected again across central PA. Limited coverage precludes mention in the terminal forecasts at this very early juncture. Outlook... Sat...Prevailing VFR, with brief MVFR reductions in -TSRA. Sun-Mon...Isolated showers and thunderstorms, but VFR prevalent the majority of the time. Tue...Occasional reductions in -TSRA,especially northwest. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Martin NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Martin SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Martin LONG TERM...Martin/Banghoff AVIATION...Jurewicz/Banghoff

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