Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 022332 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 632 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A southern stream shortwave will lift across Pennsylvania today. In its wake, a broad southwest flow aloft is anticipated through next week with upper level ridging along the east coast. A dying cold front is likely to push into the region late Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain continuing to taper off as expected from southwest to northeast as associated shortwave trough also lifts off to the northeast. Model RH profiles and upstream satellite imagery indicate the prospects of any late day widespread clearing are dim, especially over the N Mtns and eastern counties, where low clouds are likely to linger into the evening. Additional rainfall amounts should top out just below a quarter of an inch across portions of the Poconos. Temperatures have largely warmed well into the 40s this afternoon as onshore flow loses its influence due to a weak surface low lifting into NJ. Expect a few locales in south central PA to near 50 degrees by mid afternoon. Surface ridging is progged to build into the state tonight. Partial clearing associated with the arrival of the ridge, combined with light winds and wet ground, should set the stage for areas of fog tonight into early Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Warmer and brighter conditions appear very likely Sunday, as upper level ridging builds over the state. However, model soundings indicate broken low clouds could persist beneath a subsidence inversion and a light southeast flow off of the Atlantic could temper the warm up. Have therefore slightly undercut NBM max temps. Low clouds due to easterly flow will likely stick around through early week as a wave of low pressure moves up near the east coast. Southwesterly flow aloft will maintain early March warmth with temperatures in the 50s/60s, perhaps hampered a bit by clouds and easterly flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Sfc low pressure tracking south of the area will bring some potential for rain showers to southern PA with chances decreasing further to the north and west. There is some model disagreement on the exact placement of the low-pressure, with GFS guidance tracking this system across SE PA. This solution would allow for increased chances of rain across north/western PA, while the European suite of models drags this further south across NC/SC which will keep rainfall confined to the southern half of the area. MaxTs +5-10F with MinTs +10-15F above climo suggests that the majority of precipitation that falls Wednesday through Thursday night will be predominately rain. Guidance is starting to shift towards the thinking that a brief lull in precipitation will occur on Friday as the aforementioned sfc low moves off the New England coast and the next system begins to form across the central US. Have lowered PoPs in this timeframe to outline some potential for little more fair conditions.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Weak low near Philly late this afternoon has allowed winds to shift a bit to the northwest in some spots. This did help improve conditions a bit here in the last few hours. For the 00Z TAF packge, I did bring conditions back down overnight, given light winds and wet ground. Much wetter now than last Spring. Low cloud cover could limit fog formation. At the current time, some BINOVC in spots like AOO. Overall expect a wide range of conditions into Sunday morning. Improvement as one heads into the afternoon hours. Low clouds and fog could reform again after dark Sunday night, as winds will remain light. This will be especially the case where clear skies early on allow for temperatures to drop below the dewpoint. After late Monday, much of the week will feature a wide range of conditions, with wet weather possible early on across the east, then a cold front mid week, followed by the potential for more clouds and showers after mid week. More information below from earlier discussions. Towards early Sunday afternoon, signals for gradual improvement begin to prevail across much of the area with VFR conds expected across eastern PA. At western airfields, lingering low- level moisture will keep high-end IFR/low-end MVFR cigs through 18Z although there is lower confidence. Outlook... Mon...Mainly dry weather, but possible low clouds and fog in the morning hours. Tue-Thu...Chance of rain with restrictions possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Guseman/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Guseman/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Guseman/NPB AVIATION...Martin

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