Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 080000 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and sticky summertime conditions will continue through Wednesday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rainfall. Relief from the heat and humidity is expected to arrive by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Regional radar loop at 00Z shows scattered convection over primarily southern Pa beginning to wane in coverage/intensity. Expect this trend to continue, as boundary layer continues to cool/stabilize this evening. It will remain very warm and muggy tonight with lows in the 65-75F range or +10-15F above early August climo. Mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds may result in patchy fog late tonight, especially in those spots that receive rain this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Bermuda High will maintain very warm and humid conditions across central Pa Monday with scattered pulse type convection during the afternoon. All of the 18Z models track a weak mid level vort max across the southern tier of NY state Monday afternoon, which should focus the best chance of t-storms across the northern tier. However, isolated, diurnally-driven convection will remain possible even in the southern counties. Weak flow aloft and associated 0-6km shear values of less than 20kts and only modest cape of 750-1000 J/kg suggest the threat of severe weather is minimal Monday. PWATS near 2 inches will likely support torrential downpours in spots. However, recent dryness and unimpressive qpf from even the wettest members of the HREF indicate a low risk of flash flooding. Ensemble mean 850mb temps edge up slightly Monday, so expect highs to be a degree or two higher than today in most locations. Max temps in the low to mid 90s, combined with dewpoints near 70F should result in heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s across the Susq Valley, with some spots possibly touching 100F. Diurnally-driven convection should die out Monday evening, then expect an increasing chance of late night showers/t-storms over the northwest counties associated with a cold front approaching from the Grt Lks. Increasing warm advection/southwest flow ahead of the upstream cold front should result in an even warmer Monday night, with minTs holding AOA 70F across most of the fcst area. Forecast lows will be near- record high minimums for the date.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not a lot of change from earlier forecast. Made some minor changes to the timing and POPS on Wed. As noted on Saturday, first front on Wed has not much upper level support to move things much. Will have to wait to later Thursday to push in drier and cooler air. Highest chance for showers will be Wednesday. Still possible to see a shower or storm on Thu, given the upper level frontal zone. Models and WPC have a QPF max south central PA Wed aft. Went with it. More information below. Tuesday will continue to be very warm and muggy, with a chance of mainly aftn/eve SHRA/TSRA. High temps will mostly ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s from NW to SE across central PA and heat index values will again approach the century mark. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon in northwest PA ahead of an approaching cold front. This should help temper afternoon highs in the northwest mountains. The aforementioned cold front will slowly traverse the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, providing a continued chance of SHRA/TSRA. Not much upper level support to push this through very fast. The main push of drier and cooler air will occur later in the week, as the the large scale pattern shifts a bit. A secondary cold front will cross the area Thursday night or Friday, ushering in even lower dewpoints and below normal temperatures. After this current stretch of heat and humidity, this should be a nice break. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered t-storms will impact the southeast 1/2 of the airspace for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will decrease in coverage by tonight. 18Z TAF strategy will be to use prevailing VCSH/VCTS and AMD for high confidence TSRA impacts (brief IFR/LIFR) or direct hits to TAF sites. Some clearing tonight along with light winds may allow for patchy fog and stratus to develop at a few sites into early Monday morning. Once fog/low clouds erode, expect VFR into Monday afternoon with more isolated to scattered t-storms. Outlook... Mon-Thu..Sct mainly aftn/evening SHRA and TSRA, with patchy early morning fog/stratus. Fri...VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Steinbugl

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