Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 212056 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 456 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift southeast across the region over the next couple of days. Developing low pressure will lift northeast along the eastern seaboard during the middle of next week. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the northeast conus. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Lots of thin high clouds overhead, and they have been cutting the temp curve a little flatter than anticipated. The clouds will likely get thicker as more moisture spills over the ridge, but they should also slip a little to the south. Still, enough clouds to start calling it "cloudy" over the Laurels and SC Mtns tonight. Have nudged temps up just a deg or two there, and this should also keep any frost away. Would not even be surprised to see some radar returns/virga as a spot of enhanced lift moves along the PA/MD border later tonight. However, no need for a mention of sprinkles as it is so dry below 10kft. The longer conversation was over frost advy or not in the middle Susq. Light wind for sure. The clouds are the wild card. The SC Mtns and Lower Susq should be largely frostless tonight as either the clouds keep the temps up. Will just mention frost in fcst wx grids for the middle Susq and Ridge/Valley region between State College and Harrisburg, but not take the advy step. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Another nice day is on tap for Sunday with highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. The high clouds should slink southward, but some cu may pop up in the Srn Mtns. Sun PM seems clear/fair again with even less of a worry for frost. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will bring central Pa one more day of fair weather Monday, then conditions will head downhill once again as low pressure lifts northeast along the east coast. Med range guidance in fairly good agreement with timing of low, indicating the bulk of the rain will come Tue PM into Wed AM. Blend of model qpf indicating the most likely rainfall from this system will be in the neighborhood of a half inch for most of the forecast area. Expect the steady rain to taper off by Wed evening, as surface lifts into New England. However, shortwave and associated cold front diving southeast from the Grt Lks is likely to bring another round of showers Wed night into early Thursday. 12Z NAEFS showing additional shortwave energy carving out a deepening upper trough over the Grt Lks and northeast states late in the week into next weekend. Thus, expect a return to unsettled weather and a downturn in temperatures as we head into next weekend. Operational model 8h temps even indicate snow showers are a possibility over the mountains by next weekend, but have leaned toward the more conservative NAEFS at this point, which indicates chilly rain showers more likely. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conds to prevail into Monday, as high pressure builds into the area. No impediments to flight ops are foreseen in the near term. A slow-moving storm seems like it will affect the area in the middle to latter part of the week. Outlook... Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely PM from S-N. Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Dangelo/DeVoir is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.