Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230025 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 825 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep us fair through Monday. Developing low pressure will lift northeast along the eastern seaboard during the middle of the week. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the northeast conus. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Some high-level moisture producing only thin cirrus today with surface high pressure in control. Temps peaking in the lower to mid 60s with dry conditions as dewpoints have mixed down to the teens for much of the NE half of CWA. Quiet tonight into Monday as ridge moves through. Highs will be a bit warmer than today with a SE wind being the harbinger of the clouds and rain that will follow for midweek. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... A slow moving upper low will crawl eastward under the Rex Block, bringing potential for the first light showers to reach SW PA by Tuesday morning. Overnight temps will be a bit milder, in the 40s most locales, though drier air and less clouds in the northern mountains and northeast may bring lows down into the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A building ridge just off the Eastern Seaboard will slow the forward progression of a compact and weakening mid/upper low drifting northeast from TN Valley across the Appalachians on Tuesday. Additional northern stream energy extending south from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes will likely influence the system evolution Wednesday into Thursday. The 22/12Z GFS/EC/CMC show a wide spread in the precip pattern Friday into Saturday with low confidence in the forecast. There is reasonable agreement toward drier wx by Sunday. Wet weather will replace the 3-day stretch of sunny, pleasant and increasingly mild conditions with light to moderate rain spreading across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain should taper off in most locations on Thursday with a mainly dry period into Thursday night. There should be another round of rain sometime Friday or Saturday but timing is uncertain. Tuesday looks like the coolest day of the week with temperatures trending slightly below average into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure over the Great Lakes late today will drift southeast over the next 24 hours, ensuring VFR conditions across central Pa. Winds will be very light through tonight, but pick up a bit on Monday. Bukfit soundings indicate there will be southeasterly gusts of 15-20kts Monday afternoon in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO, with slightly lighter winds further north and east. Outlook... Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely. Wed...AM rain/low cigs likely, then improving. Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible, mainly west.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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