Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202320 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 720 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will build into the area and dominate our weather through at least Monday. A gradual warming trend will ensue and get us back to near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Scattered cumulus across the northeast corner of the forecast area will collapse at sunset. Otherwise, expect a clear and cool evening with a diminishing breeze as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Conditions favorable for radiational cooling, including clear skies, light wind and dry air, should result in most of the region falling below freezing late tonight. The only exceptions are likely to be the urban areas and hilltops in the Lower Susq Valley. A freeze warning is in effect for the southeast part of the forecast area, where the growing season has officially begun. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The only mar to Saturday will be a shield of high clouds which should slip overhead. They may not be thick enough to cause any forecast trouble, but it is in the back of my mind that they could knock a deg or two off the maxes. So, I will hold off on changing the temps at all, even though model guid would nudge us up a few degs. Less wind and the sun will make it feel like spring. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure continues through the weekend and into next week. Mornings will remain chilly, but afternoon temperatures moderate toward seasonal normals with readings reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The next weather maker is advertised to begin affecting the region on Tuesday and continue through midweek. An upper low will track east under the upper ridge that extends from the Midwest up into Canada. As the low emerges onto the plains it takes on a sort of rex-blocky appearance as it crawls eastward, and latest model runs slow this system down from previous timing so grids adjusted accordingly. Models are in good agreement in eventually opening up this low as it approaches the east coast, reforming the long wave trough over the eastern US by the end of the week. The good news is that what looks like it could end up being several days of unsettled weather, it will be mild enough that the precipitation type will be rain. Lighter amounts will creep in from the south on Tuesday, with a period of moderate rain likely Tue night into early Wed before the system lifts to the NE. Showery precip could persist into Thu as cyclonic flow returns aloft with potential for a shortwave to slip through during the day. Milder pattern continues late week ahead of next trough approaching for next weekend. High temperatures are expected to remain slightly colder than normal throughout the forecast period. But being only a few degrees below normal will feel relatively nice given the almost constant much below normal temperatures we have endured so far this month. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure building into PA this weekend will generally keep VFR conditions across the region into at least Monday. With winds becoming light overnight, clear skies, and presence of some low level moisture from the rain/snow of the last few days, short range ensembles are hinting at some low stratus and fog developing across the northern and western mountains after 08z tonight. For now, have hinted at some lower cloud development in KBFD and KIPT TAFs, with scattered stratus mentioned, but with no restrictions. Will continue to monitor trends in models, along with observations, and assess as the evening progresses whether restrictions are warranted overnight. Just high clouds tomorrow with little available in the low levels to make anything more than few cu. Outlook... Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs possible PM. Wed...Rain/low cigs.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ026>028- 035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Jung/Dangelo

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