Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240244 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving area of low pressure will begin to affect the region overnight, and the weather will remain unsettled for most of the upcoming workweek. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the eastern U.S. bringing the potential for showers and a continuation of below normal temperatures into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds continue to increase late this evening out ahead of sprawling low pressure system over the central states. SE flow gradually moistening up the boundary layer as surface high slides off the East Coast. Latest CAMs indicate light rain showers approaching but being inhibited by the still dry but moistening boundary layer east of the Allegheny crest. So a good part of the overnight may be dry over portions of the west and southwest. Will carry low chance POPs for the pre dawn hours, before ramping POPs into the likely category by and after 12z over the Laurel Highlands with the arrival of higher PW and increasingly anomalous 850 mb SSE jet. Lows fall into the 40s tonight, with upper 30s along the northern and northeast counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A slow moving upper low will crawl eastward on Tuesday, reaching the central Appalachians/SRN Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. With the upper low weakening, the surface reflection is progged to be a rather anemic low which will lead to a forecast of high POPs but generally light QPF. Worded forecast for periods of mainly light rain overspreading the entire forecast area before the day is over. Temps will stay cool as the light precip adiabatically cools the lower levels, so highs will struggle just into the 50s. Main area of precip swings across mainly eastern sections Tue night keeping PoPs high before tapering off from west to east overnight. Another upper low reinforces showery weather heading into Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Light rain is expected to continue into Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night into Thursday. The Thursday night to Saturday period may be somewhat unsettled with several disturbances aloft (embedded in the mean upper trough) move quickly through the region, offering potential/low confidence for rain showers. The departure of the upper trough will likely promote a drying trend by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will average near to slightly below average during most of the period before trending noticeably warmer into the first week of May. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure lifting out of the southeast states will spread lowering and thickening clouds across central Pa tonight with a few rain showers likely working into the western airfields late tonight. However, due to dry air at low levels, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Expect deteriorating flying conditions from SW to NE Tuesday, as the storm system and associated rain lifts up the east coast. The biggest impacts will be over the southwest portion of the forecast area, where model soundings and SREF prob charts support IFR cigs/vsbys by early evening at KJST/KAOO. The most favorable conditions will likely be in the vicinity of KIPT, where VFR conditions will likely hold until evening. Outlook... Wed...AM rain/low cigs likely, then PM improvement. Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Fri...Slight chance of rain/low cigs. Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible NW Mtns. && .CLIMATE... April 2018 currently ranks in the top 10 coldest on record (through the 22nd). Seasonable temperatures are expected through the end of the month which should help to balance the cold start. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...DeVoir/RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.