Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 141057 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 657 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold northwest flow on the back side of the departing nor`easter will continue over the local area through the end of the week. Drier conditions will try to visit the region Friday night into Saturday, but another disturbance will approach by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold 5h trof overhead with -40C at 500 mb early this morning. Mid-level lapse rates AOA 7 deg C/KM are maintaining isolated to scattered snow showers across the Alleghenies of northern and western PA. Wraparound snows dropping southward into NW and N Central PA from NY state this morning as 5h circulation crosses the Pocono Plateau. CAMs and short term model guidance track this into the Northwest and North Central Mountains with additional accums expected in the 2-4 inch range from Warren and Mckean counties, and a coating to an inch or two over my far north/northeast. Upslope will be enhanced into the Laurels as well, with an additional 1-2 inches in favored west facing slopes of Cambria and Somerset Counties. Advisory conts for Somerset County through 18z. It will be another active afternoon convectively, with numerous open cellular snow showers sprouting in the unstable steep lapse rate environment. Snow squall parameter lights up this afternoon as a result and CAPES in the 50 to 125 j/kg range will support some briefly heavy rates, so a few heavier bursts of snow within the overall area of snow showers are possible this afternoon. Elsewhere, and cold and blustery day is in store with scattered light snow showers and flurries across the central mountains, and little more than a stray flurry farther south and east. Some areas along and north of Route 6 may exceed 8 inches for this long duration Advisory event. Highs will range from the upper 20s northwest to near 40 southeast, or some 10 to 15 deg colder than normal. Snow showers will decrease from west to east tonight, with northeast sections holding onto scattered snow showers and flurries until after midnight. Additional accums after sunset will be minor...with only a fresh coating expected. Lows will range from the mid teens northwest to the mid 20s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... 5h shear axis shifts eastward across western and central PA on Thursday, enhancing convergence and generating sfc troffing over central PA...and leading to scattered snow showers and flurries again. Higher elevations of the west and north may see additional minor accumulations, but not anticipating more than a coating in most areas. Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the lower to middle 40s southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Persistent blustery northwest flow will keep cold air advection moving into the region through late week. This will allow for well below normal temperatures and scattered snow showers persisting Thu ngt and Fri west and north especially. Conditions will improve late Friday into Saturday with some moderation this weekend as upper- level ridging across the middle of the country builds eastward. Another trof undercutting the ridge may spread a chance of rain or snow showers into central PA Sat night and Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Focus overnight will then be on an increasingly moist northwest flow associated with the passage of an upper air disturbance, which will produce persistent light snow over the mountains of northern and western Pa late tonight through Wednesday. Latest model soundings support predominantly IFR conditions at KBFD beginning around 08Z and beginning around 12Z at KJST. Downslope WNW winds will favor predominantly VFR conditions over the central and eastern 2/3 of the airspace, with the potential of briefly lower visibilities in passing snow showers Wed afternoon. Winds will diminish a bit this evening, then pick up again early Wednesday with frequent gusts of 25-30kts Wednesday. Snow will taper off and winds will diminish Wed evening, as the upper air disturbance passes east of the region. Outlook... Thu...AM light snow/reduced vsbys likely W Mtns. Fri...AM snow showers/reduced vsbys possible W Mtns. Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004- 005. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...DeVoir/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.